Date: April 18, 2009
Venue: Bell Center (Montreal, Canada)
Welcome to any new readers from InterMat!
Let me introduce myself. I am the infamous UFC Monster, and my mission is to find weaknesses in the Las Vegas betting line, and capitalize on them in order to help make our readers a profit from the efforts and achievements of mixed martial arts fighters, many of whom have had successful amateur wrestling careers! I do it for the fun and challenge of beating the bookmakers, and for the love of the sport. I hope you enjoy our efforts.
There is no more overused phrase in fighting than "pound-for-pound, best in the world!" � but, trust me, Anderson "Spider" SILVA (23-4) is just that! In the middleweight division (185 lbs), there is the Spider, and there is everybody else. Silva fights Thales LEITES (14-1) in the main event. Both Brazilians on winning streaks, Silva has won nine (9) straight. Jiu-jitsu guru Leites has won seven (7). But Silva has been crushing people! His lethal Muay Thai clinch with devastating knees, elbows, and pinpoint striking, make short work of most of his opponents. If it goes to the ground with Leites, Silva can win there, too (See Travis Lutter and Nate Marquardt for details)�
And, speaking of knockouts, light-heavyweight Chuck "The Iceman" LIDDELL (21-6) faces Mauricio "Shogun" RUA (17-3) in what many expect to be the fight-of-the-night. This epic battle would have been best about three (3) years ago, when each were on the top of their respective food charts, with devastating KO power that has become their trademarks.
But, today Chuck has lost two of his last three, and Rua has looked like an out-of-shape has been. He most recently labored to win a decision over Mark Coleman, an ancient UFC dinosaur, who cut weight to make light-heavyweight! It was ugly. Both fighters have much to prove. The loser will get a "pink slip" from Dana White, UFC President.
Just a month short of 40 years old, the legendary Iceman will somehow find the opening, as he so often does, to take out the former Pride fighter with a lightning quick overhand right that turns the lights out on a once promising Shogun career. LIDDELL @ -200 wins by second-round KO.
Two standup fighters, light-heavyweights Krzysztof "the Polish Experiment" SOSZYNSKI (17-9-1) and Brian "All-American" STANN (6-1) square up against each other in what should be a punching show, until Soszynski decides to take it to the mat, where he will submit the former Iraq War veteran with an armbar in the third round. Take SOSZYNSKI @ -150 to cash your ticket.
In another battle of violent heavyweight strikers, we have Cheick KONGO (23-4-1) against Antoni HARDONK (8-4). Neither has a ground game, both can knock you out in a heartbeat. The linesmakers have posted Kongo has a big favorite, probably due to his experience, long reach, and aggressive style. But, they offer up Hardonk with some great value @ +250, with a kicker's chance of winning. I remember early on in UFC folklore, watching Brazilian Marco Ruas kick and kick and kick the legs of Canadian Paul Varlens, until the Grizzly Bear toppled on weak pins. I saw Maurice Smith do the same to Mark Coleman � and most recently, Keith Jardine, the Bounty Hunter, used the tactic to upset the Iceman. It's hard to fight aggressively, when you can barely stand up!
In a big upset, take HARDONK @ +250 to have his hand raised, as Kongo rubs his calves on the mat.
Dana must want some fierce knockouts tonight, as the remaining main card event pits former WEC champion Steve "Robot" CANTWELL (7-1) against brawler Luiz "Banha" CANE (10-1-1). Buckle up. This will be a three round war. Cantwell is relentless in his attacks, Cane will attempt to get in close and use some dirty boxing and rough-house muscle to wear his opponent down, in order to apply a submission. Will he be able to? Or will Cantwell stave off the attack?
But, this isn't World Extreme Cage-fighting (WEC). It's the UFC. Take CANE @ -325 to win a majority decision.
On the undercard:
Light heavyweight Elliot "The Fire" MARSHALL (6-2) beats Vinny MAGALHAES (3-3-1) by decision in a fight with no betting odds posted.
Welterweight Ryo "Piranha" CHONAN (15-9), whose flying scissors heal hook beat Anderson Silva many moons ago, finds a way to win a split decision over TJ GRANT (13-2). Chonan, the �200 favorite does not warrant a play.
Lightweight Matt "Handsome" WIMAN (10-4) goes back into his wrestling background to control the fight with puncher, Sam "Hands of Stone" STOUT (14-5, and with one tie with Joey Clark). Take WIMAN as a slight underdog @ +120 to win a decision.
Lightweight Mark BOCEK (6-2) is a member of America's Top Team, and it shows. His all-around game should be enough to dominate a game David BIEKHEDEN (13-6). Lay the �260 and wish that you had bet more � Bocek wins by third-round submission, rear-naked choke.
Middleweight Denis KANG (31-11-1) was a big disappointment in his highly-touted UFC debut, where he dominated Alan Belcher for two rounds, only to get caught in a chokehold that ended his night with a loss. He will have enough to beat Xavier Foupa-Pokam (20-9), but laying �325 offers little value. A small play only is warranted until Kang proves his meddle. Kang wins by armbar submission in the second round.
One of my favorite fighters is Canadian Jason "The Athlete" MacDONALD (22-11), who often cashes underdog tickets with his under-rated ground game of submissions, and his never-quit attitude. He takes on Nate "Rock" QUARRY (16-3), best remembered for being cold-cocked by Rich Franklin, and needing back surgery to return to the Octagon. If MacDonald saw Damian Maia put Quarry in a fight-ending body triangle, you know this one may end the same. Why not? I bet MacDonald early @ +110, the public is pounding him late. He now is posted at "pick it" �110 or greater. Call it another mild upset.
The Crow is back! David LOISEA (18-8), another Canadian sidekick of Georges St. Pierre is back to show off his kicking skills against Ed "Short Fuse" HERMAN (16-6). I like Loiseau to win a narrow decision against a game and determined Herman, who will be fighting for his UFC survival. Take the Crow @ -130. Early bird gets the worm.
Twelve (12) fights all on one exciting UFC card. Is it any wonder that Dana has the sports community frothing at the mouth for more, more, more? Tickets for UFC 100 in Las Vegas on July 11th sold out in hours with most tickets selling for $500-$1000 each! Man, what a cash cow!
So, let's get our fair share. Let's take on Vegas with our "fictitious" bankroll!!!
Here's my money management math:
Let's lay $260 to win $50 on the Spider catching another victim in his web. Easy $$$.
Lay $200 to win $100 on the Iceman putting Shogun out cold.
Lay $110 to win $40 on Cane to maul Cantwell.
Lay $66 to win $60 on MacDonald to submit Quarry.
Lay $60 to win $40 on Soszynski over Stann.
Lay $104 to win $40 on Bochek to submit Bielkheden.
Lay $65 to win $50 on the Crow over Short Fuse.
Lay $30 to win $75 on Hardonk in a shocking upset over Kongo.
Lay $65 to win a Jackson ($20) on Kang over Foupa-Pokam.
Lay $40 to win $48 on Wiman over Stout.
No bet on Marshall vs. Magalhaes.
No bet on Chonan vs. Grant.
In total we are betting a dime ($1000) to win a nickel and change ($523).
GOOD LUCK, and enjoy the fights! I know I will.
More later.
The UFC Monster
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