Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena (Las Vegas, Nevada)
Date: January 30, 2009
The UFC Monster will be in attendance with RevWrestling.com senior writer Andrew Hipps staff writer Jim Beezer, when the UFC opens it's new year with one of the best fight cards in recent memory. In what many expect to be an epic battle, BJ Penn will attempt to be the first UFC fighter to hold belts simultaneously in two different weight classes. He is also out to avenge a split decision loss to GSP three years ago. Both fighters have improved greatly since that contested affair. It will be a fight for the ages, as each has a genuine dislike for the other.
Let's take a look at the card and try to put some money in our wallets. We destroyed the UFC betting line in UFC 93, going 9-1 against the spread, as posted right here on Rev. Let's do it again!
In the featured fight, I like the posted +170 underdog odds on BJ PENN (13-4-1), right here at the Wynn Casino. Tho' I marvel at the growth of GSP (17-2)'s fight career, I believe BJ is unique as a fighter. Often looking "soft," he is able to contort his body into positions like no others. If his cardio can last, and if he can avoid the early onslaught of St. Pierre's strikes, kicks, and takedown attempts, BJ may find a frustrated GSP, ripe for the omaplata submission hold that ends this one. Take BJ PENN to shock the world, and send the UFC Monster to the winner's window again.
In a very intriguing match-up of two undefeated (13-0) Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighters, Lyota MACHIDA takes on a very dangerous Thiago SILVA. Two contrasting styles will pit the patient Machida against the overly aggressive striking power of Silva. Machida has wins over BJ Penn, Rich Franklin, and Tito Ortiz on his resume. He makes everyone look bad, as he uses his precise striking skills and karate angles to elude the attacks of his opponent. He likes his distance, while Silva is always in your face. Take MACHIDA -240 to survive this onslaught and beat his rival down, winning a unanimous decision over Silva.
Stephan BONNAR (14-4) will forever be remembered for his epic toe-to-toe battle with Forrest Griffin. He has battled a severe knee injury that ended his last season. But, his experience and underrated jiu-jitsu skills will be enough to take care of undefeated Jon JONES (7-0), a former JUCO national wrestling champion. Jones will rely on his athleticism and powerful strikes, but I think he is a bit too green to handle the arsenal of weapons that Bonnar will bring to the octagon cage. Take BONNAR-170 to win by second-round armbar submission.
Karo PARISYAN (26-5) has been knocking on the door of a title shot, but he always seems to lose just prior to the opportunity. Dong HYUN KIM (10-0-1) is a lanky striker known as the "Stun Gun." Parisyan will most likely uses his judo experience to throw Kim to the mat and mount him for a quick ending of ground-and-pound. Kim will need to avoid the takedown and stay standing, using jabs and accurate striking to win this battle. I don't see that happening. Take PARISYAN -250 to win by first-round TKO.
Both Nate DIAZ (10-2) and Clay GUIDA (24-6) have brothers who are mixed martial arts fighters. In fact, I had to correct the large electronic Wynn sports book odds board, when they posted "Nick" Diaz as the fighter instead of his younger brother Nate! It is a good sign when the UFC Monster knows more about the fights than the bookmakers! Clay Guida is one of the most popular UFC fighters because he goes, and goes, and goes � always advancing his attacks, and backing away from no one. But Diaz got his jiu-jitsu black belt from the Gracies after almost a decade of study. His lanky body will again be used to wrap his long legs around Guida neck for a patient submission. Take DIAZ -120 to win by second-round triangle choke submission.
On the undercard, Jon FITCH (21-3) will be fighting for the first time after his five round beating he took at the hands of GSP. He had won 15 straight before that. His opponent is the very experienced Japanese fighter, Akihiro GONO (28-13-7). How does a fighter get seven (7) draws? Gono has 14 wins by decision, seven by KO and seven by submission. Interesting. I see no value with laying heavy wood (-600) on a fighter who lost his last fight. For value only, take GONO +425 to win a split decision over the former Purdue wrestler.
Thiago TAVARES (17-2) should be able to use his jiu-jitsuu skills to get the better of TUF fighter Manny Gamburyan (10-4). Take Tavares -125 to win by second-round rear-naked choke submission.
Chris WILSON (13-4) should cruise over John HOWARD. Over 92% of UFC website readers think so, according to their fight poll. That's good enough for me. Take WILSON to win by second-round KO.
An interesting match-up pits a strong wrestler, Jake O'BRIEN (10-2), against a kicker and striker in Christian Wellisch. In a textbook MMA fight of wrestler vs. striker, we usually find the wrestler controlling the body of his opponent and neutralizing the striker's game. Repeat here. Take O'BRIEN -220 to stick Wellisch.
Unknowns Matt ARROYO (3-2) and Dan CRAMER (0-0) take to the octagon in a strange match of newcomers. Who knows what might happen here? Oddsmakers have made Arroyo a strong -190 favorite here. We will go with that. Take ARROYO -190 to win a decision over Cramer.
In summary:
Lay $100 to win $170 on BJ Penn.
Lay $120 to win $ 50 on Lyoto "the Dragon" Machida.
Lay $170 to win $100 on Stephan Bonnar.
Lay $150 to win $ 60 on Karo Parisyan.
Lay $132 to win $110 on Nate, not Nick, Diaz.
Lay $ 20 to win $ 85 on a Gono upset of Finch.
Lay $100 to win $ 80 on Thiago Tavares.
Lay $ 60 to win $ 20 on Chris Wilson.
Lay $ 88 to win $ 40 on Jake O'Brien.
Lay $ 57 to win $ 30 on Matt Arroyo.
In total, we are laying $997 to win $745.
Let's give the $3 to the cocktail waitress for her efforts.
Enjoy the fights. I know we will! Good luck.
More later.
The UFC Monster
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