Venue: 02 Arena, Dublin, Ireland
Date: January 17, 2009
This is not one of the best fight cards we have seen in the UFC, as CEO Dana White continues to give worldwide exposure to this fast-growing sport. With a few interesting battles scheduled, the rest of the card is sprinkled with unknown European fighters, and hopeful, hometown favorites. But a fight is still a fight. Unfortunately, from a betting standpoint, this card looks full of clear favorites to me! It may be difficult to sweep the boards, laying juice as we go, in a sport full of upsets, but let's take a look and see if any 'dogs really have a chance …
In the main event, former Olympic wrestler Dan HENDERSON (23-7) takes on former UFC middleweight champion Rich "Ace" FRANKLIN (26-3). Franklin beats everybody, but the ninja, Anderson "Spider" Silva. Hendo has a rock-hard head, and has never been knocked out! His dirty boxing and dominant wrestling skills make an inside game a must against Franklin. For Franklin to win, he will need to stay outside and kick and strike and score points. His chances of a mild upset are reflected in the betting odds. Take HENDERSON @ -125. He does everything just a little bit better than Franklin and wins by second-round ground-n-pound TKO.
Former UFC champion Mark "The Hammer" COLEMAN (15-8) will someday be in the UFC Hall of Fame. But today he loses to Maricio "Shogun" RUA (16-3), who once was considered the best middleweight on the planet. He now fights as a light-heavyweight and has a career full of rehabing injuries, including a dislocated elbow to Coleman the first time they met. Both are former Pride in Japan fighters. Shogun is coming off his shocking loss and first submission loss ever to Forrest Griffen. I think he wants to put on a show tonight, and 44-year old Coleman's return to the UFC offers a great stage. Take RUA �360 to win by second-round, rear-naked choke submission.
Welterweight Marcus "The Irish Hand Grenade" DAVIS (20-5) likes to stand and punch as much as his opponent, Chris "Lights Out" LYTLE (36-16-4). But, despite their reputations as devastating punchers, both of these fighters win more of their fights by submission! Interesting. Who's going to hit the canvass tonight? Neither. Take the DAVIS, Irish Hand Grenade, @ -145 in Ireland to win a close decision.
Middleweight Denis KANG (31-10-1) has been fighting all over the world for the past decade, but this is his UFC debut. He went 3 1/2 years (4/03-9/06) without losing! His opponent is the very capable Alan "The Talent" BELCHER (12-4). There is a reason that Dana White is bringing Kang into the UFC. It's not to lose to Alan Belcher. Take KANG @ -250 to have an easy win by second-round triangle choke submission.
Nobody has had more fights that Jeremy "Gumby" HORN (88-18-5). But, his task tonight is to find a way to stop Brazilian jiu-jitsu expert, Rousimar "Toquinho" PALHARES (17-2), from putting him to sleep on the mat. Palhares lost a decision to Dan Henderson in Atlanta in UFC 88. If the betting line weren't so steep, this would be my best bet of the night. I see Palhares being too quick and too strong for an old fighter who should stay with his coaching career, and put his fight shoes to rest. Take PALHARES @ -380 to beat Horn by second-round armbar submission.
And on the undercard:
Take Martin "The Hitman" KAMPMANN (13-2) @ -450 to kick his way to victory over Alexandre BARROS (13-5). Despite the beating he took by Nate Marquardt in his last outing, Kampmann's drop to welterweight is significant. His speed and striking power will make him formidable. This one should be easy.
Take Eric "Red" SCHAFER (12-3-2) @ -125 to beat Antonio "Samuray" MENDES (14-3). In what should be a close light-heavyweight fight, Mendes will be out to show a better performance than the 1st round whipping he took by Thiago Silva. Schafer is coming off an impressive win over Houston Alexander in Houston's backyard! If Schafer is able to stay away from the long, lanky Mendes' strikes, he will win on the mat with a surprising first-round submission.
Take lightweight Denis SIVER (12-6) @ -160, a German, against American, Nate MOHR (8-5), who will try to stand and strike, as his five losses have all been by submission! Siver knows that and will head to the mat for a quick submission win.
Take welterweight John HATHAWAY (10-0) @ -250, a Brit, to defeat Irishman Tom EGAN (4-0) in a battle of two unknown, but undefeated strikers. One will drop. Which one will it be? It will be the hay-maker thrower who is on the card for entertainment purposes only.
Take Tomasz "Gorilla" DRWAL (14-2) @ -270 to easily defeat Ivan "II Terrible" SERATI (10-2), whose resume has a loss to Vitor Belfort on it. Ivan isn't ready for the UFC yet, and his frantic punches may lead to his quick demise on the mat.
So, in summary, we have action on all of the favorites. How many upsets will become the "bad apples" to spoil our pie? I would guess that maybe Franklin, Lytle, and Mendes would be the most likely to pull an upset. I guess we'll see.
Let's see if we can score some cash with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll.
Lay $75 to win $60 on Henderson in true dirty boxing and ground-n-pound fashion.
Lay $144 to win $40 on Shogun Rua in revenge mode.
Lay $87 to win $60 on Davis in the "fight-of-the-night".
Lay $125 to win $50 on Kang's UFC debut.
Lay $152 to win $40 on Palhares as he schools Horn.
Lay $90 to win $20 on Kampmann's leg-kicking, bridge-jump.
Lay $50 to win $40 on Red Schafer.
Lay $108 to win $40 on Drwal.
Lay $100 to win $40 on Hathaway.
Lay $ 64 to win $40 on Siver.
In total, we are risking $995 to win $430. The $5 balance goes to RevWrestling.com for their outstanding wrestling coverage. Let's use these profits to join REV GOLD membership for all the inside information in the world of amateur wrestling.
Good luck and enjoy the fights. I know I will.
More later.
The UFC Monster
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