Date: August 9, 2008
Venue: Target Center (Minneapolis, MN)
UFC 87 is in the UFC Monster's backyard of Minneapolis. After attending yesterday's press conference at the Mall of America and studying the fighter's records, this card appears to be another full of action and interesting match-ups. The UFC Monster will be breaking down this mixed martial arts card live on Scott Casber's Takedown Radio show (www.takedownradio.com) Saturday morning. Please tune in.
As we look at the main event, this welterweight (170 pounds) championship bout features the ever-improving Georges ST.PIERRE (16-2) defending his title against former Purdue wrestler Jon FITCH (17-2), who hasn't lost in almost six years, and is on an astounding 15-match winning streak, that includes victories over Diego Sanchez, Luigi Fioravanti, Thiago Alves, Josh Burkman, and Brock Larson. As Joe Rogan would say, "tough dudes."
Why has it taken Fitch so long to get a title shot? And, what chance does he have of beating the awesome GSP? … not much, I'd say. Fitch lacks punching power, is much slower and more methodical than GSP, and is nowhere near the wrestler that his opponent is. This may simply be a better athlete dominating. Fitch works extremely hard in the gym. His endurance and determination are legendary. GSP is far the superior overall fighter, but his Achilles' heal may be his mental frame if the fight goes deep and Fitch proves to be a worthy opponent. The public is betting he isn't. They are pounding the proud Canadian instead.
ST. PIERRE (-350) defeats Finch by second round ground-and-pound TKO.
Former Minnesota Gopher and NCAA champion Brock LESNAR (1-1) gets a shot at redemption for his Frank Mir submission loss, by getting to perform in front of his large fan base against the tough, and very experienced, Texas cowboy Heath "Crazyhorse"HERRING (28-13).
Roger Huerta and Brock LesnarI see the adrenalin kicking in and Lesnar overwhelming his opponent and slamming him violently through the mat with a double leg takedown. From his full mount position, it will be sledge hammer time until the ref pulls the giant off the bloodied cowboy.
LESNAR (-250) wins by first round ground-and-pound TKO.
In what many expect to be the fight of the night (or even the fight of the year), local homeboy and former Augsburg wrestler Roger "El Matador" HUERTA (20-1-1) tries to stop the momentum of Kenny FLORIAN (9-3), who has won four straight UFC fights, since losing to Sean Sherk. These two lightweights (155 pounds) will go toe-to-toe until someone takes it to the ground where it will be a match between Ken-Flo's sharp elbows and seasoned jiu-jitsu against Huerta's angry determination to revoke an abusive childhood, and his ability to show relentless ground-and-pound power (10 KOs in 20 wins!) … and he's a lightweight. They generally have no punching power.
The winner of this fight will probably get a title shot against BJ Penn. To be the best, you have to beat the best. Neither of these guys will beat BJ. It will be no surprise to me that if Huerta loses this fight, he will soon be gone from the UFC, to reap bigger paychecks from Affliction.
HUERTA (+125) pulls the upset and beats Florian by a razor-thin split decision.
Demian MAIA (8-0) is an undefeated up-and-comer in the middleweight (185 pounds) division. His opponent is the seasoned Canadian Jason "The Athlete" MacDONALD
(20-9), who has won 16 of his fights by submission. This may be the key to beating Maia, who is known as a far superior Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter. Strangely UFC Web site fans who vote for such things in polls, give the +200 underdog MacDonald an overwhelming 2/3 vote to beat his undefeated opponent!
I think MacDonald may have enough submission defense to last long enough to unload some serious elbows, and a few mean knees, that lead to a surprising upset KO of the young Brazilian. Athletic Canadian hockey player wins again!
MacDONALD (+200) wins by third round KO over a stunned Demian Maia.
Short, stocky Manny GAMBURYAN (8-2) will be out to submit Rob EMERSON (7-6), who brings a mediocre fight resume with him. Though he hasn't lost for three years dating back to a split decision loss to Melvin Guillard, Emerson appears to be a bit of a one-dimensional striker to me. Ten of his 13 fights have gone to a decision! Boring. Why is this fight on the main card? I have no clue.
GAMBURYAN (-320) proves once again that a takedown with submission will usually beat the hapless puncher. He wins by second round arm-bar submission.
On the five bout undercard:
UFC president Dana White speaks at the UFC 87 press conference at the Mall of AmericaWelterweight Luke CUMMO (6-5 @ -140) gets a second round KO over a determined Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCRORY (8-1). The Barn Cat will use his lanky figure to try and trap Cummo into a triangle choke submission. But, Cummo stays inside and on his feet for the knockout.
Team Quest member Chris WILSON (13-4 @ -320) defeats UFC new-comer Steve BRUNO (11-3) with a unanimous decision in the welterweight division.
Two undefeated 5-0 light-heavyweight (205 pounds) fighters match up with Brazilian Andre GUSMAO trying to take out unknown Jon JONES (+190), who has 4 KO's in his five wins. Jones appears to have enough KO power to warrant a small play as a +200 underdog.
… and, middleweight Ben "Berserk" SAUNDERS (5-0-2 @ -260) has his way with Ryan Thomas whose 9-1 record includes 6 submission victories. Saunders wins a judge's decision.
That's it. Ten (10) fights in all. Now let's try to win some money with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll:
Let's lay $175 to win $50 on GSP over Fitch. Is this crazy bridge-jumping?
Let's lay $250 to win $100 on Brock Lesnar to crush Crazyhorse.
Let's lay $100 to win $125 on Roger Huerta to upset Ken-Flo.
Let's lay $100 to win $200 on Jason MacDonald to end Maia's unbeaten streak.
Let's lay $96 to win $30 on Gamby to stop Emerson.
Let's lay $56 to win $40 on Cummo over McCrory.
Let's lay $25 to win $87.50 on Evenson to shock Cheick Kongo.
Let's lay $25 to win $47.50 on unknown Jon Jones.
Let's lay $96 to win $30 on Team Quest's Chris Wilson.
Let's lay $78 to win $30 on Ben Saunders.
That's $1001 to win $740.
Good luck and enjoy the fights!
More later.
The UFC Monster
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