Date: July 5, 2008
Venue: Mandalay Bay Events Center (Las Vegas, Nevada)
Has Forrest GRIFFIN (21-4) ever been favored to win a big fight? I think not. Yet, on Saturday night in Las Vegas at UFC 86, he stands again as an underdog with a chance of becoming a champion. A shocking upset over Shogun RUA puts him in a spot to face the awesome Quinton "Rampage" JACKSON (28-6), who has rolled through the division's best, including a surprisingly easy KO over Chuck "the Iceman" LIDDELL.
The UFC Monster and Forrest Griffin in Las VegasBut on Saturday night, the title still belongs to Rampage. He wins by second-round TKO, with some ugly, bloody, ground and pound that caps a night of great battles.
Ricardo ALMEIDA (9-2) has won seven (7) straight middleweight fights. His opponent, Canadian Patrick COTE, is also on a four (4) fight winning streak. The winner puts himself in title consideration (against "the Spider", Anderson Silva). No thanks. Cote will try to keep this fight on his feet, and hopes to end it all with a rocking right hand. Almeida has different ideas. He wants to take it to the mat where he will dominate with his stronger submission skills … He does and wins by second-round rear-naked choke.
Joe "Daddy" STEVENSON (33-8) is coming off a lightweight title shot loss to the great BJ PENN. But, Stevenson didn't just lose. He got beaten to a bloody mess, before getting choked out. He was never in that fight … and his bloodied face told the story. How does a fighter rebound from such a beating? On Saturday night we find out where Daddy's heart really is! I hope it is in beating a very talented and experienced Gleason TIBAU (27-5). I think it will be a battle, but when the bell ends the fight, it will be Joe Stevenson getting the unanimous decision in victory.
Josh KOSCHECK (13-2) is a sky-rocketing welterweight, and former NCAA wrestling champion who is a strong favorite to beat the seasoned veteran, Chris "Lights Out" LYTLE (35-15-5). Koscheck was over-matched against Georges ST. PIERRE (GSP), but he has dominated everybody else out there. Chris Lytle will be looking for that one opening of an over-zealous Koscheck charge, that leads to his unloading of a might blow that will put Josh to sleep on the mat. He can do it … and Saturday night, as a last hoorah, he does! Upset special.
Tyson GriffinIronically, I think Griffin looked best in his only loss to Frankie EDGAR, than in any of his wins! His opponent, Marcus "Maximus"AURELIO (16-5), is a former Pride fighter who has beaten Takanori GOMI. He's no slouch. I see this one starting out on the feet with Aurelio trying to end it with a punch. Griffin will take it to the ground and wish he hadn't, as Maximus teaches him a lesson in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, catching him with a painful armbar submission late in the first period. Another upset special.
On the undercard:
Gabriel GONZAGA (8-3) has looked unbeatable (unless he's fighting Ferdicio Werdum or Randy Couture). Justin McCULLY (8-3-2) is a crazy man. One of them will hit the canvass hard. My guess it won't be Gonzaga. But, I think he will be awarded the victory officially by submission as he pounces on his weary opponents body for the kill. For those who like bridge-jumping, take Gonzaga.
Cole MILLER (13-3) is a 6'1" lightweight beanpole. These guys are tough to fight. You can't get close enough to hit them, and when they put their long legs around you and crank on something, their leverage is incredible. Despite all of that, I think Jorge GURGEL (16-3) has a bit more experience and will pull a mild upset over Miller with a triangle choke early in the third period.
Melvin GUILLARD (39-8-3) looks like a steroid freak, and has a world of experience and ability to beat about anybody. But, he is unpredictable and Dennis SIVER (11-5) may be capable of exposing some weakness in Melvin's game. But, in a non-bettable fight, I'll go with Guillard winning with a strong, rear-naked choke late in the first period.
… and finally, let's give Corey HILL (2-0) a shot and staying unbeaten with a first round KO over a stunned Justin BUCHHOLZ (8-2). No betting line available.
So, let's try to turn these opinions into cash, using my fictitious $1000 bankroll:
Let's lay $240 to win $100 on Rampage (-240) over Forrest.
Let's lay $210 to win $150 on Almeida (-140) over Cote.
Let's lay $220 to win $100 on Daddy Stevenson (-220) over Tibau.
Let's lay $120 to win $300 (yes, $300) on "Lights Out" Lytle (+250) over Koscheck.
Let's lay $ 75 to win $210 on Aurelio (+280) over Tyson Griffin.
Let's lay $ 90 to win $ 15 (yipes!) on Gonzaga over McCully.
Let's lay $ 40 to win $ 40 on Gurgel over Miller.
Let's pass on Guillard/Siver and Hill/Buchholz with no betting lines available. Gulliard and Hill would both be plays @ �250 or less, in my opinion.
So, that's it. We're laying $995 to win $915 … let's give the balance to Veterans for Peace on this patriotic Fourth of July.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
More later.
The UFC Monster
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