Date: May 24, 2008
Venue: MGM Grand (Las Vegas, Nevada)
Let's start with the two other main card events:
In a bizarre match-up, an unknown Slovakian, Goran RELJIC (7-0) takes on seasoned UFC veteran, Wilson GOUVEIA (10-4), who has won four in a row in the octagon. But, Reljic's record shows victories over only ONE opponent with winning record! And, he has never fought in the US before, let alone in the octagon. What's up with this match-up? GOUVEIA @ -125 takes this to the mat and wins with a second-round submission armbar.
Undefeated Thiago SILVA (12-0) should have little trouble disposing of Antonio MENDES, who is on an 11-fight win streak over almost four years. Silva is a beast who recently destroyed Houston Alexander with a first round KO. His impressive resume includes seven straight victories by KO. Let's add Mendes to the list. SILVA @ -650 KO's Mendes in the first round.
Many think that Wanderlei SILVA (31-8-1) is washed up. Three straight losses to Mirko Cro-Cop, Dan Henderson, and the Iceman have others wondering. His opponent tonight is the always overachieving Keith "The Dean of Mean" JARDINE (13-3-1). The former bounty hunter has been on a roll that includes beating Forrest Griffen, as well. But, Wanderlei's been in this game since '96 and he has fought them all. I believe that Silva's Muay Thai style is made to order for a much-needed victory over Jardine. Houston Alexander overwhelmed Jardine. Why can't Wanderlei? Jardine will need rto stay away from Silva in the same manner he avoided Chuck and fired away with some victious leg kicks. Wanderlei won't be a standing target like Liddell. He will be a charging bull like Vitor Belfort. Take SILVA @ �170 to get back on track.
Tito ORTIZ hates UFC President Dana White. And vice versa despite what corporately correct things Dana might say. This is the legendary Tito's last UFC fight. He's moving on, mostly to acting in the movies. His wife is a porn star and his garage is full of hot cars. But, the once scary ground-and-pounder has lost his fire, I think. And, Lyoto MACHITA certainly has the patience and skills to exploit that. Machida's style is simple: karate. Karate? Man, that's the most one-dimensional technique out there, chopping boards with leg kicks? Come on. Please … yet Machida wins, and wins, and wins … ask Stephan Bonnar, Rich Franklin, BJ Penn, and Rameau Soukoudjou. Machida is a defensive fighter and Tito will come after him. But Machida will make him miss over and over again. This one will go to the judges decision where MACHIDA @ �185 wins convincingly.
And, in the lightweight title fight, two rivals who REALLY don't like each other, will get it on as BJ "The Prodigy" Penn (12-4-1) takes on Sean "The Muscle Shark" SHERK (32-2-1), who is coming off a 6-month suspension for "alleged" steroid use, which he denies, of course. Nobody is less popular than Sean Sherk. BJ owns this crowd. They love him, and he is ready to go. BJ is the better technician, but Sherk is a cardio freak who may wear BJ down with his relentless attacks. Both have lost to Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre. But, that's about it. I see Sherk getting caught in an overzealous move, with the rubber band man grabbing his extended neck and finding a way to almost dislocate his own knee joints in gaining an impressive third-round triangle choke submission over the Muscle Shark. Take BJ @ -260 to take home his Hawaiian bacon.
Okay, now let's try to make some money using our fictitious $1000 bankroll.
On the main card:
Lay $182 to win $70 on BJ Penn over Sherk.
Lay $102 to win $60 on Wanderlei Silva over Jardine.
Lay $148 to win $80 on Machida over Ortiz.
Lay $130 to win $20 with a bridge jump on Thiago Silva over Mendes.
Lay $100 to win $80 on Gouveai over Reljic.
And, on the undercard:
Lay $51 to win $30 on Salaverry over Palihares (second-round submission).
Lay $78 to win $30 on Soukoujou over Nakamura (first-round KO).
Lay $63 to win $30 on Clementi over Etim (second-round submission).
Lay $51 to win $30 on Yoshida over Koppenhaver (decision).
Lay $60 to win $20 on Kim over Tan (second-round KO).
Lay $34 to win $20 on Carwin over Wellisch (decision).
That's $999 at risk to win $470. Plus, a buck tip for the cocktail waitress!
We have all favorites with no upsets. I'll have to see that to believe it …
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
More later.
The UFC Monster
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