Venue: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio
The UFC has now added a match to each of their cards, going from nine to ten. And, this card has as many interesting fights as any I've seen! So, let's get started trying to find a weakness in the betting line, shopping for fighters with "value", and see if we can repeat the UFC Monster's winning performance (+ $ 345), as posted right here on this website, prior to UFC 80.
The undercard in UFC 82 may be better than some of the main cards in previous UFCs! What a show!
Jorge GURGEL (11-3) is a -200 favorite to defeat John HALVERSON (16-5). Gurgel has 9 submission wins in his 11 victories. Halverson's last lost was a 19 second KO from former Augsburg wrestler, Roger Huerta! Not a lot of value here, but we will force a small play on Gurgel. He wins by second round submission.
Luke COMMO (9-4) takes on Luigi FIORAVANTI (12-3) in a battle that could go either way. Commo is coming off two KO victories, while Fioravanti has lost two of his last three (Forrest Petz/Jon Fitch, who has won 18 in a row). As both fighters go toe-to-toe, I'll go with the modest underdog, Fioravanti @ +135, to have his hand raised at the end. He wins by third round KO.
Diego "Nightmare" SANCHEZ (19-2) takes on unknown David BIELHEDEN (12-5), a rare Swedish fighter trying the UFC. Are you kidding me? The Nightmare's only losses have been his last two fights! Think he's hungry? Bielheden won't know what hit him! I see Sanchez exploding early and overwhelming his opponent. The Nightmare is back with a first round KO using ground-and-pound elbows! Lay the lumber with Sanchez @ -450. He's a beast!
In a very interesting match-up, red-hot Dustin HAZELETT (12-3) brings his lanky body and unorthodox submission arsenal into the octagon to take on former NCAA wrestling champion, Josh KOSCHECK (11-2). Koscheck's only losses have been to Jon Fitch and Georges St. Pierre. Hazelett will be game and may catch an overzealous Koscheck in a submission hold (armbar or chokehold), but I see a similar result as the Sanchez's fight, with Koscheck @ -450, overwhelming his opponent early, getting ground control with his superior wrestling skills, and reigning much pain onto his opponent, in route to a first round TKO by ground-and-pound. Koscheck's tough.
Undefeated Jake O'BRIEN (10-0) takes on former UFC heavyweight champion, Andre ARLOVSKI (13-5). How can this be an undercard fight? Man, that's deep … Despite being an awesome wrestler, O'Brien has won 8 of his 10 fights by KO. And, Arlovski loves to stand and punch. But four of his five losses have come by way of KO. I see great value in O'Brien here. I believe he will be able to control Arlovski with his superior wrestling skills and he, too, will mount and pound out a stunning upset victory over a bewildered former champ! Take the Irishman and get +285. It doesn't get any better than that, an undefeated fighter as a big �dog.
… and now onto the main card:
Is there a hotter MMA fighter anywhere than Jon FITCH (20-2), who has won 19 in a row? His opponent tonight is Chris WILSON (11-3-1), an under-rated fighter with little chance here, based on a UFC poll showing only 3% of fans polled give him a chance to win. Fitch has been a beast, demonstrating ground skills and punching power that seem to show no weaknesses. Is GSP (Georges St. Pierre) in his future? Could be. Take Fitch and bridge jump on the �550. He wins by first round triangle choke. No problem.
How about Evan TANNER (34-6)? Thirty-seven (37) years old and he's still fighting on the main card of a UFC event! Good for him. His opponent is the awesome Yushin OKAMI (22-4) whose impressive resume includes victories over Alan Belcher, mike Swick, Jason MacDonald, Nick "the Goat" Thompson, and yes, Anderson Silva, the last to do so! My head tells me Okami, but my heart puts me on the underdog, Evan Tanner.
Tanner has fought them all in his decade plus of MMA fights. He has knocked out Phil Baroni in the first round. He's KO'd Robbie Lawler and beaten David Terrell. But, despite his awesome knees and elbows, somehow Tanner usually wins by submission. Very few of his fights go the distance. I see great toe-to-toe action here, with each trying to put the other guy out. Whoever strikes the decisive blow will finish the job in the full mount position, battering his helpless opponent. I'm hoping Tanner @ +195 has one more great fight left in him. If so, he wins by third round TKO, using bruising elbows to open up vicious cuts. This one gets bloody and a seasoned veteran puts another notch in his belt.
Chris "the Crippler" LEBEN (17-4) is a psycho who likes to rock your world with flurries of hard-hitting sledgehammer-like blasts. He is relentless and not afraid to trade blows with anyone. But, he has eaten some knees from Anderson Silva (who hasn't?) and Alessio SAKARA (16-6-1) is just the guy who can throw them. He loves to stand and punch and this one may not survive the first round. Leben is the favorite, but I see it an even battle, so I see the value with Sakara @ +135. He wins by first round KO, knees followed by a crushing right that sends Leben into la-la-land.
In another slugfest of big punchers, Heath "the Texas Crazy Horse" HERRING (27-13-1) brings his Pride experience into the UFC again, this time taking on tough Frenchman, Cheick KONGO (21-3-1), who loves to kick and kick and kick. If this one goes to the mat, Herring will win. Unless Kongo has improved his ground game dramatically, he needs to stay standing and kicking. He will. And that may be enough to get it done with Herring. He has not looked good in the UFC. I don't look for that to change here. Take Kongo �165 to move up the ladder of heavyweight contenders. He wins by second round KO.
… and in the featured match, we have the middleweight championship between the incomparable Anderson "the Spider" SILVA (20-4), who is destroying his competition these days, and Dan HENDERSON (22-6), former light-heavyweight Pride champion, who is cutting weight to get down to the middleweight division. Silva has never faced the power of a Henderson, and NOBODY has been able to knockout Hendo, arguably one of the world's top three Greco-Roman wrestlers (Randy Couture and Matt Lindland, the others). Like Tanner, he is another 37-year old who has been fighting MMA for over a decade. He will have no fear of the Spider. Henderson's strategy will be a page out of Randy Couture's book of "dirty boxing". While nobody wants to be in the clinch with Silva, Henderson will welcome the opportunity. Unfortunately, that will soon become his problem as Anderson Silva will again apply his Muay Thai head clamp and start to unload those vicious weapons some call his knees. This one ends with a page in history, my friends. Dan Henderson gets rocked and the Spider's growing legend continues … you either bet with the Spider or you don't bet the fight at all. That's my opinion. Silva -140 wins by third round TKO, another Silva beating that is becoming his carefree, guitar-playing trademark.
So, in summary with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll let's see how we will do against the bookmakers:
Let's lay $ 60 to win $ 30 on Gurgel.
Let's lay $ 40 to win $ 54 on Fioravanti.
Let's lay $135 to win $30 on Sanchez (warning: bridge-jumping).
Let's lay $135 to win $30 on Koscheck (warning: bridge-jumping).
Let's lay $165 to win $30 on Fitch (warning: severe bridge-jumping).
Let's lay $ 70 to win $ $199.50 on O'Brien (big underdog!).
Let's lay $ 50 to win $ 97.50 on Tanner (a "value" bet from the heart).
Let's lay $ 70 to win $ 94.5 on Sakara (mild underdog).
Let's lay $ 99 to win $ 60 on Cheick Kongo.
…..and, let's lay $ 175 to win $125 on the Spiderman.
In all we are laying $999 to try and win $750.50.
The extra buck goes to the cocktail waitress.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
More later.
The UFC Monster
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