Event: UFC 74: Respect
Date: August 25
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada (Mandalay Bay Events Center)
UFC 74 is about respect. In trying to make money while wagering on the UFC, there are a few key elements worth noting. Disrespecting the oddsmaker's numbers is one of them.
Unlike most national sports, MMA odds are usually posted just days before the event. That means that when the oddsmaker finally posts the odds, bettors have little time to react. Educated handicappers then pounce on "juicy" lines, trying to take advantage of weaknesses or flaws in the posted numbers. Unlike most sports, the volume of betting action is relatively low, and more importantly, few oddsmakers are even capable of establishing a fair number, one in which the public's betting action will be evenly split. Often the posted number will induce well-educated MMA bettors the opportunity to take advantage of a weak number. In a sport that is so young and growing, it is mostly pure MMA fans who wager on these events. Unlike football, basketball, baseball, and hockey, where casual fans often throw their money down just to have action.
Simply stated, the UFC bettor is a more educated bettor, while the oddsmaker setting the odds is posting numbers is much more vulnerable to posting a bad number than in any other sport. MMA lines get bet and then frequently get adjusted, often dramatically, to the new posted odds. Nowhere is the line movement so dramatic as it is in MMA betting. Like the fights themselves, the betting lines can be very volatile. This means there is money to be made!
So let's follow the money.
The strategy here will be to "go with the flow" of the educated MMA bettor. Let's look at the opening and current betting lines of tonight's fights. It is often said that late betting money is smart betting money. Often the "wise guys" wait until late before dumping their dough down. It often pays to watch this line movement and then jump on board. More times than not, you should be heading to the winner's window.
The UFC Monster recently spent some time at Randy Couture's gym in Las VegasJosh Koscheck is perhaps the most talented wrestler in the UFC. His mission tonight is to beat the very popular and recent welterweight champion George's St. Pierre, who comes off a shockingly disappointing loss to the much smaller and older, Matt Serra. St. Pierre may be my favorite UFC fighter, but the bettors have backed Koscheck. Late money may come in on St, Pierre, but the bettors feel that Koscheck is a fighter on the rise, while St. Pierre needs to regroup and find his bearings again. Koscheck works almost exclusively on his stand-up skills today, and his progress is amazing. He just gets better with each fight, and he recently gave Diego Sanchez his first loss in almost 20 fights! The money flow says, TAKE KOSCHECK. That may be the case, but I tread with great respect here. St. Pierre is a very dangerous man.
Joe "Daddy" Stevenson is a physically strong, up-and-comer, who takes on Kurt Pellegrino. Opening at �280, the bettors have loaded up on Stevenson, driving the line to �325. That's a pretty big move. It's also probably a pretty safe bet, as well. Stevenson is better in all phases, stronger, and maybe even hungrier, with so many mouths to feed. TAKE STEVENSON and lay the big number.
Kendall Grove is another talented fighter who gets better with each match. His opening odds were posted as �230, a clear favorite to beat down Patrick Cote, a potent slugger with limited ground skills. Grove is now a steeper favorite at �265. He gets the bacon. TAKE GROVE and lay the lumber.
In the final "main event" card, former Augsburg wrestler Roger Huerta continues his blistering act in fighting relative unknown, Alberto Crane. Huerta is the niggest favorite on the card at �450. That line has been solid with little, if any, movement. Either nobody is betting this match, or the oddsmaker has effectively split the action, as intended. I'll PASS. I don't like "bridge jumping" on big favorites, and I'm not betting against someone who is 19-1. PASS. PASS. PASS.
On the undercard, three of the four matches are getting betting action. Let's throw out Thales Leites against Ryan Jensen. Leites opened at �285, and that's where the line is stuck today. He may get the job done, but there is no value to the line. PASS again.
Submission artist Renato "Babalu" Sobral opened at �185 against David Heath. Sobral had been on a major winning streak until getting KO'd by Chuck "the Iceman" Liddell, and then gassing out in the second round against Jason Lambert, who also knocked him out. Today, Sobral is posted at �235, again a big line movement. Why? Because UFC bettors feel that the value lies with him. Babalu is simply the bettor fighter. If he is mentally prepared, this fight will be his. TAKE SOBRAL to avoid his third straight loss.
Former heavyweight champion Frank Mir hasn't looked good since he returned almost two years ago from his motorcycle accident. He opened as a -160 favorite to defeat Antoni Hardonk, a slugger with no ground game. Mir is just the opposite, a rare heavyweight with great submission skills and questionable knockout power. Usually, those who control their opponent's bodies, do well in MMA fighting (see Randy Couture). Mir is getting the bettor's action. Some off-shore books have him as �185 now. I'm not sure if I trust old Frank yet, bit a wager for old times sake may be in order. TAKE MIR as a modest favorite. His career may not yet be over.
And, in what the oddsmakers have posted as the closest fight of the night, Marcus Aurelio takes on the experienced, long-haired Clay Guida, who opened as a �155 favorite. But, the bettors are pounding Aurelio who is now even money with some books. TAKE AURELIO.
In summary, we are playing WITH the smart UFC bettors and AGAINST the weak UFC oddsmakers. Here's our plays:
Couture, at any price.
Koscheck, as a 'dog for those brave enough to go against St. Pierre. That's not me.
Stevenson, a decisive favorite.
Grove, another clear favorite.
Sobral, avoiding a third straight loss.
Mir, a fighter trying to salvage his career.
Aurelio, as a 'dog.
Passes on Huerta and Leites.
Good luck. Play to win … not just to have action. Enjoy the fights. I'll see you at the winner's window!
More later.
The UFC Monster
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