Saturday, March 4, 2006
Mandalay Bay, Las Vegas, Nevada
The UFC Monster is on his way out to Las Vegas for this big event. Vegas oddsmakers give only one Canadian (Georges St. Pierre) a chance to beat an American in this eight-fight card event (betting odds listed next to projected winner). I see it a little brighter for the Canucks, as I see three wins coming from north of the border. After going a respectable 6-3 in the last UFC 57, including a nice underdog win on Joe Riggs, I'll take another shot at predicting this week-end's fight card. Let's go to the winner's window.
Trying to bet with my head, and not my heart, here's how I see them:
Diego SANCHEZ (16-0) vs. John ALESSIO (22-8) CANCELLED
Diego has gotten sick with some type of stomach ailment and is unable to fight. No alternate opponent was announced and the match was cancelled.
Spencer FISHER over Sam STOUT (8-1-1) by KO in the 2nd round
Fisher is a last second replacement for Kenny FLORIAN, who is unable to fight due to back problems. Both Fisher and Stout are aggressive punchers, not afraid to go toe-to-toe. Stout is known for his "hands of stone," but it is Fisher who gets the upper hand in this affair. Fisher (no betting line available) sends Stout to the canvass in the second … USA 1-0.
Tom MURPHY (4-1) over Christophe MIDOUX (9-4) by KO in 2nd round
I don't know much about these two guys. But, I know enough to see a KO by Murphy (-160) … USA 2-0.
Jason LAMBERT (19-5) over Rob MACDONALD (3-1) by KO in 2nd round
I think Lambert has too much experience for MacDonald, being in fights with the legendary Marco Ruas, as well as Wesley "Cabbage" Correira and Tim Silvia. Lambert has won nine of his last ten fights, including wins over Travis Wiuff and Marvin Eastman in the past nine monthes. Lambert (-400) puts this one away in the second with a powerful kick to the head … USA 3-0.
Yves EDWARDS (28-8-1) over Mark HOMINICK (9-4) by SUBMISSION in the 1st round
Edwards is lightning quick and comes at you from all angles with numerous spinning kicks and submission moves. Not only does Edwards have a mountain's worth of experience, but he is a jiu-jitsu specialist fighting against a kick boxer. I'll take the ground expert every time. Edwards (-550) cruises here with a first round submission (rear naked choke) … USA 4-0.
Mike SWICK (9-1) over Steve VIGNAULT (11-5) by KO in 1st round
After saying I would always take a jiu-jitsu fighter over a kick boxer, not here. This fight never makes it to the mat. "Quick" Swift (-600) puts the lights out on Vignault, who's going up in weight for this fight, winning with a first round KO over an opponent who has lost two of his past three … USA 5-0.
Joe DOERKSEN (27-7) over Nate MARQUARDT (25-6-1) by SUBMISSION in the 2nd round
This is a big upset. Doerksen has had a long and storied MMA career, with fights against Matt Hughes, Eugene Jackson, David Loiseau, Joe Riggs, and Matt Lindland. Marquardt has spent most of his career in Japan fighting in Pancrase competition, His last fight was an impressive victory over the very tough Ivan Salaverry. I think the fight will stay up with both fighters throwing punches and kicks. But Doerksen (+190) finds a way to bring it to the mat and submits Marquardt with a second round arm bar…..Canada breaks through … USA 5-1.
Georges ST.PIERRE (11-1) over BJ PENN (10-2-1) by TKO in 2nd round
BJ Penn is the last man to beat Matt Hughes. He even went up in weight to do it. Incredible performance. Then he disappeared again. That's BJ. But, ST. PIERRE is simply a man on a mission. He gets better with every fight. He is quicker and stronger and more determined with every notch in his belt. He wants Hughes' belt in the worst way, and BJ isn't going to be able to stop him here. I see some serious "ground-n-pound" by St. Pierre. Big John McCarthy pulls Georges (-150) off a battered BJ midway through the second … USA 5-2.
David LOISEAU (15-4) over Rich FRANKLIN (21-1) by KO in 2nd round
Big upset. Franklin has looked awesome in holding the middleweight crown. But LOISEAU, like training partner ST. PIERRE, is on a mission to wear a championship belt. He can do it here, if he is able to catch Franklin with a head kick and bring the champion to the mat. I see it happening. Franklin's 21-1 record is impressive, but for a school teacher, like him, to just drift into this profession seems like a short termed success story to me. Get ready to crown a new champion. "The Crow" (+250) ends this one with a roundhouse kick to the head … USA 5-3 Final.
Well, that's it for now. The next UFC will be April 15 in Anaheim with Tito Ortiz coming back to fight Forrest Griffin. Good luck and enjoy the fights.
See you at the winner's window.
The UFC Monster
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