UFC 57: Mandalay Bay, Las Vegas, Saturday, February 4, 2006
In one of the most anticipated rematches in UFC history, Randy "the Natural" Couture will try to regain his light heavyweight title from Chuck "the Iceman" Liddell. This is the deciding "rubber" match, as Randy won the first battle with a fourth round "ground-and-pound" TKO over Chuck, but the Iceman added Randy to his long list of knockout victims just ten months ago. This is the decider. Hopefully, it will be 42-year-old Randy's swan song and he will cap a legendary career by retiring after this fight. But, rumor has it that "the Natural" may have signed a three-fight deal with the UFC. Nonetheless, this event sold-out within days, and the UFC Monster will be one of the lucky ones in attendance!
This nine-fight card should probably be renamed the "Battle of the Heavyweights" as six of the nine fights feature heavyweight match-ups. There are two light-heavyweight and one welterweight battle, filling out the card. Normally a UFC event features eight fights. I would imagine the additional fight added is due to the fact that many heavyweight fights don't go the distance, so the card may move along quickly.
The other element that makes heavyweight fights so unpredictable is that most big boys bring some heavy hands into the ring. Knockouts can occur at any time. A losing fighter can reverse his fortunes with just "one lucky punch." Add some world class wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, throw in a little kick-boxing, muay tai, and rigorous training, and you have today's MMA (mixed martial arts) warrior. Cross training and developing an arsenal of weapons makes today's UFC fighter better than ever. And, just as in wrestling, often it is the athlete that "wants" it more than claims the victory. The mental game is what separates the champions from the also-rans.
And, with the growing popularity of the sport, there is an over abundance of athletes working toward MMA careers. The competition gets tougher by the day. Where will this sport go from here?
Apparently to LasVegas and the Internet for gambling! That's right, bettable odds are now being posted for each and every fight on the UFC 57 card. Amazing. With that in mind, the UFC Monster will take a look at these fights from a betting point of view.
ALESSIO SAKARA (13-3) vs. ELVIS SINOSIC (6-8-2)
In this light-heavyweight fight, we actually have a fighter with a losing record, still being show-cased in the UFC! Why? Because Elvis Sinosic has been to the mat with some of the sport's best: Tito Ortiz, Frank Shamrock, Evan Tanner, Jeremy Horn, etc. Elvis is also the biggest underdog on the card, listed @ +320 at Sportsbook.com. Yet those who frequent the MMA message boards, the hardcore fans, all seem to like Elvis' chances here. Sakara is a Gracie jui-jitsu master with vale tudo experience, yet his trademark is his lightning quick punches. You know, those 30-punch knockouts in less than a minute. Sakara is a Vitor Belfort clone. But Sinosic's UFC career hangs in the balance here. Another loss and "see you later." I'll go with the insider's info and take a shot at Elvis getting a bundle (+320).
RevWrestling.com Prediction: SINOSIC by submission in the second
BRANDON VERA (5-0) vs. JUSTIN EILERS (9-4-10)
Four of Vera's five wins are by KO. His ground game hasn't been tested yet. But, Eilers is a former Iowa State football player whose MMA career began with a decision loss to the legendary Dan "the Beast" Severn. Justin also is a banger who likes to go toe-to-toe. The ground game isn't his forte. Vera may take it to the mat and try to find a submission ending. But, my guess is that it's "lights out" for Eilers in the second. I'll take Vera as a
-220 favorite.
RevWrestling.com Prediction: VERA by KO in the second
Keith JardineBoth are Season 2 participants on the Ultimate Fighter show -- and each have dropped from heavyweight to light-heavyweight, trying to hang on and survive in the UFC. Losers in these events are soon on the outside looking in. Jardine is a former Albuquerque bounty hunter. His demeanor is just plain mean. These guys are going to throw hay-makers until one of them drops. I think that one is Whitehead. I'll take Jardine as a slight -130 favorite.
RevWrestling.com Prediction: JARDINE by KO in the second
PAUL BUENTELLO (19-9) vs. GILBERT ALDANA (5-0)
Buentello's last fight was a shocking 14-second knockout at the hands of UFC heavyweight champion Andre Arlkovski. That's right, Paul hit the canvas in just 14 seconds! Now his task is to stop a young unbeaten hopeful in Gilbert Aldana, whose perfect record includes all KO victories! Buentello is a rare heavyweight who is able to finish opponents frequently with submission holds. But, this fight will start in the middle and both fighters will test each other's chins. By the second round, I see Buentello taking it to the mat where he gains a winning rear naked choke. I'll take him as a -220 favorite.
RevWrestling.com Prediction: BUENTELLO by submission in the second
JEFF "THE SNOWMAN" MONSON (19-5) vs. BRANDON LEE HINKLE (14-6)
Monson is a compact ball of muscle who likes to bash heads with an opponent, rough it up a bit, throw an array of punches, and then take it to the mat where he is a surprise master of submission holds. Jeff has won 13 straight fights and 10 of those were by submission! Who would have thought? And guess what? Brandon Hinkle's Achilles' heel is that he is a pure striker and has been submitted in five of his six losses. It looks like strength against weakness here to me. I'll take Monson as a -260 favorite.
RevWrestling.com Prediction: MONSON by submission in the first
NICK DIAZ (11-4) vs. JOE "DIESEL" RIGGS (26-7)
Diaz is one of my favorite fighters. I like the fact that his strength and background is ju-jitsu, but he is not afraid to throw punches. In fact, he has taken out some perceived better punchers along the way. Nick is coming off a heart-breaking decision loss to Diego Sanchez, while Riggs couldn't make weight, yet fought anyway against Matt Hughes, with no title on the line, and was submitted by the great one in the second round. Riggs, believe it or not, once was a 300-pound athlete, but is now fighting as a 170-pound welterweight. Needless to say, he is a BIG welterweight. My instincts tell me that Nick will try to duke it out with Diesel Riggs. That will be a mistake. If it goes to the mat, Nick wins. If it stays standing, I like Riggs. It stays standing. I'll take Riggs as a +180 underdog.
RevWrestling.com Prediction: RIGGS by KO in the second
RENATO "BOBULU" SOBRAL (26-5) vs. MIKE VAN ARSDALE (10-2-1)
Van Arsdale is a former Iowa State wrestler, good enough to beat Cael Sanderson in the the 2000 Olympic Trials in freesytle. Van Arsdale's MMA career stretches over 6-7 years, but he has only 13 fights, his only losses to Randy Couture and Vanderlei Silva. Not a bad resume. Babulu Sobral is recognized as one of the best fighters in the world and is on a nine-fight winning streak. This submission artist has beaten Maurice Smith, one of the premier kick-boxers ever in the sport. And he has fought Fedor Emelianenko, regarded as many as the world's best MMA fighter. Sobral is an active and very experienced fighter waiting for his shot at the title. Van Arsdale is in his way, but not for long.
RevWrestling.com Prediction: SOBRAL by submission in the second
FRANK MIR (8-1) vs. MARCIO CRUZ (1-0)
One has to wonder why Dana White would put someone with the experience of only one fight on a card like this against the ex-heavyweight champion Frank Mir. Mir had to vacate the crown after a severe motorcycle accident broke his leg. Over a year of hard rehab has gotten Frank back into the ring. Skeptics say that his mobility is impaired and that his takedown abilities are gone. Frank has always been one of the best in the business in his submission techniques. He broke Tim Silvia's arm in one of them. But, the unknown Cruz is a Rio De Janeiro trained jujitsu fighter. One would then figure that this one will be on the mat and there either has a chance. I believe that Mir wants a quick fight, standing up. I bet his aerobics aren't great, either. Cruz will stand up only long enough to take some kick shots at Mir's vulnerable, damaged leg. I'll bet that Frank finds a way to end this one early. I'll take Mir as a -280 favorite.
RevWrestling.com Prediction: MIR by submission in the first
Randy Couture with UFC MonsterWhat a classic this should be. A world-class wrestler against someone with sledgehammer hands and a great takedown defense. This will be a match of a 42-year-old's will to win and his ability to control his opponent's body versus a younger, quicker, athlete with knockout ability second to none. Both want this one badly. Both were head coaches in the Ultimate Fighter show.
Randy does best when he is made an underdog, when the public thinks he can't do, and only his loyal fans stand by. Randy is best at knowing his own body and his refusal to lose. He is the master at taking his opponent's game away by locking then up, getting them to the mat, and controlling them with "ground-and-pound" elbows and fists. Punchers don't do well laying on their backs! And, Randy puts you to your back. I like Chuck. I like Randy more. I hope he retires. He has served our sport (wrestling) well in the UFC. I'll take Randy in his swan song. Why not? He's an underdog @ +150.
RevWrestling.com Prediction: COUTURE by TKO in the fourth
Good luck and please watch some MMA if you haven't already.
More later.
UFC Monster
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