Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena (Las Vegas)
Date: May 26, 2012
The UFC Monster has won seven (7) straight UFC cards as documented on this very website. However, I took UFC 145 off as I was in Iowa City following the U.S. Olympic Team Trials, my fourth straight in attendance. I was also in attendance back in 1972 when Dan Gable beat Lloyd Kaiser at Anoka High School in Minnesota to make the team, and go on to win Olympic gold without being scored upon! Now that's amazing.
At any rate, I'm back and let's see what we can do with tonight's UFC card. The PPV UFC card features all heavyweights. So, you can bet that there will be plenty of KOs and opportunities to watch replays of the undercard. Five of the undercard fights will be shown for free on FX TV. The other two can be found on the UFC's Facebook page.
It is the UFC Monster's mission to find "value" in the Las Vegas betting line. And, I feel that tonight's main event offers such an opportunity. The heavyweight championship belt is on the line as former champ Frank Mir (16-5 w/9 submissions) takes on defending champ, Brazilian Junior dos Santos (14-1 w/10 KOs). Most fans see dos Santos ending this early with another thundering KO punch. And, that will be the result if Mir can't get this to the mat. But Mir is an arm-breaker (see Big Nog and Tim Silvia for details). We have not seen dos Santos on his back, and if we do, this one may soon be over. Getting Mir at +385 is too good to pass up. I see a second-round choke ending it.
Former Arizona State wrestler, Cain Velasquez (9-1 w/8 KOs) had been crushing his opponents until he was stunned by a one-minute KO from Junior dos Santos. Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva (16-3 w/11 KOs) is a Strikeforce veteran making his UFC debut. Coming off a shocking loss to Daniel Cormier, Silva will find a tougher journey against Velasquez. Cain is too athletic and quick for the Neanderthal man. I see a stunning right hand putting Silva to the mat where Cain will devour him with vicious ground-and-pound punches. Velasquez at -400 wins by first-round KO.
I don't think I've ever bet on Roy "Big Country" Nelson (16-7 w/9 subs). Until tonight. His opponent, Dave "Pee-Wee" Herman has an impressive 21-3 record w/15 KOs, but he has often been criticized for not training hard and being a "goof-off". Big Country's beer belly physique is deceptive. He is one of the best heavyweight's around at controlling position and winning by submission. You do not want this big hulk laying on you. So, can Pee Wee score a KO before Roy takes him down? Nope. Lay the reasonable -210 on Big Country and head to the buffet line. Nelson wins a decision.
Two undefeated fighters meet when Shane del Rosario (11-0 w/8 KOs) takes on the challenge of Stipe Miocic (8-0 w/6 KOs). It is always tempting to take an undefeated fighter as a 'dog, but there are too many unknowns here for me. Rosario makes his UFC debut at +135, but I'll pass. No play for me on this one. I'll sit back and enjoy the punches.
Lavar Johnson (17-5 w/15 KOs) is 2-0 in the Octagon, both KOs, after a career with WEC. But 6'11" Stefan Struve (23-5 w/15 subs) is a unique heavyweight. His lanky frame and reach advantage makes it difficult to get inside on him. And, you don't want to find yourself on the mat with Struve, as his submission skills are deadly. So this one boils down to ... Can Johnson get his KO punch in before Struve drags him to the mat? I don't think so. Struve has made a career of surviving deep trouble to rally and win by submission. Add another notch to his belt here with great value on Struve as a modest -135 favorite. Struve by second-round arm bar submission.
Now let's take a quick look for value on the undercard …
Diego Brandao (14-7 w/8 KOs) and Darren Elkins (13-2 w/4 KOs and 5 subs) is a featherweight (145 pounds) fight that could go either way. I'm tempted to take Elkins as a +230 'dog, but I'll pass instead. Brandao may win by knockout.
Welterweight Edson Barbosa (10-0 w/7 KOs) is one of my favorite "up-and-comers" in the UFC. His flashy style and spinning back-kicks make him fun to watch. He has dynamite in his fists. His opponent, longtime WEC veteran, Jamie Varner (19-6 w/11 subs), will look like a deer in the headlights tonight, I'm afraid. I'm bridge jumping on Barbosa at -500. A devastating first-round KO will end this, and make one wonder who's next? GSP?
Middleweight (185 pounds) Jason "Mayhem" Miller (23-8 w/14 subs) has lots to prove after gassing out on national TV against Michael Bisping. Former Arizona State wrestler C.B. Dollaway (11-4) is a well-rounded fighter, but will be over-matched on the mat with Mayhem. I see good value in betting Miller at -130 as I believe his ground game and submission skills will get the job done here. Mayhem wins by second-round rear-naked choke.
Duane "Bang" Ludwig (21-12 w/10 KOs) and Brit Dan Hardy (23-10 w/11 KOs) have similar records and lots of UFC experience. But Hardy has lost four in a row and that usually earns you a pink slip from Dana (White). And, a desperate fighter is a dangerous fighter! But I think Ludwig has the crisper boxing skills and will win a unanimous decision here. I'll take the slight +110 underdog odds on Ludwig.
Like many, I don't care for lightweight (155 pounds) Jacob "Christmas" Volkmann's (14-2 w/lots of boring decisions) right-wing politics and lack of respect for the POTUS. But he can wrestle. I'll give him that. But I'll try to beat him tonight with an undefeated 'dog, Paul Sass (12-0 w/11 subs). Getting +170 on an undefeated fighter against Volkmann is an early Christmas gift for me. Sass by decision.
Light heavyweight (205 pounds), Glover Teixera (17-2 w/11 KOs) hasn't lost in seven years, and has won 15 straight fights, mostly first-round KOs! He makes his UFC debut tonight against UFC journeyman Kyle Kingsbury (11-3). I'll ride the hot horse at -220 after watching Kingsbury clowning around at yesterday's weigh-ins. Teixera is all business with a first-round KO. Kingsbury gets a pink slip.
Featherweight (145 pounds) Mike Brown (25-8 w/13 subs) is nearing retirement. He will best be remembered as the guy who beat Urijah Faber TWICE! He should have enough of a skill set left to win a decision over Daniel Pineda (17-7 w/11 subs). The -130 on Brown looks cheap to me.
Now let's take a look at our money management program with our fictitious $1000 bankroll:
Let's lay $60 to win $231 on former champ Frank Mir pulling the big upset!
Let's lay $120 to win $30 on Cain whipping Bigfoot with athleticism.
Let's lay $84 to win $40 on Big Country squashing Pee Wee Herman.
Let's lay $135 to win $100 on Stefan Struve's submission skills.
Let's lay $125 to win $25 on a Barbosa bridge jump.
Let's lay $91 to win $70 on Mayhem Miller creating mayhem.
Let's lay $100 to win $110 on Bang Ludwig booting Hardy from the UFC.
Let's lay $60 to win $102 on Paul Sass out-politicking Jacob Volkman.
Let's lay $132 to win $60 on Texiera extending his winning streak.
Let's lay $91 to win $70 on what may be Mike Brown's swan song.
Let's pass on Miocic vs. del Rosario.
Let's pass on Brandao vs. Elkins.
In total we are risking $998 to try and win $838. Let's keep this winning streak alive!!!
Don't forget to donate some of your winnings to your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights! I know I will.
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