Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit (Photo/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)Event: UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit
Venue: Mandalay Bay Events Center (Las Vegas)
Date: Feb. 4, 2012
The UFC Monster is in Las Vegas for UFC 143's action, featuring the interim welterweight championship between Nick Diaz (26-7) and Carlos "The Natural Born Killer" Condit (27-5). The winner to take on Georges St. Pierre, who is sidelined by injury. Diaz has won 11 straight, and Condit has won 12 of 13. Something has to give. And, hopefully, it's not my winning streak of three in a row and eight of eleven for InterMat readers. My mission is to find value against the Vegas oddsmakers' betting lines, and help readers make a profit on wagers on UFC fights. Please wager only with money you can afford to lose.
Now let's take a look at the main card. In what should be the fight of the night (FON) two highly-skilled, diversified fighters will go at each other in a five-round affair. Both are strong strikers and neither has ever been submitted! Condit may have an edge in kicking, but Diaz is better in all other aspects, including an endless cardio and relentless pawing style that wears down opponents. The Compton street punk has always been one of my favorites, and I like him to win here at a price of -180. The public is pounding him, as I got on early at -130, and have watched his odds skyrocket. Diaz wins by third-round TKO, or perhaps a shocking submission. Lay the juice, and go to the winner's window with me.
Brazilian heavyweight Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1) was the man who ended Fedor's legend with a triangle choke in Strikeforce. He also has a win over Alistair Overeem on his resume! His opponent is "Big Country" Roy Nelson (16-6), whose physical appearance and beer belly shouldn't fool anyone. Nelson can bring it, and is also excellent on the ground, though not in the class of Werdum. A better striker, who will need a KO to win, Big Country will most likely lose a decision here. I don't see a Werdum KO, and Nelson is hard to submit. I'll take Werdum by decision and lay the -140, a very reasonable price.
Former Edinboro NCAA champion wrestler Josh Koscheck (16-5) takes on wrestler Mike Pierce (13-4), whose only UFC losses are to Jon Fitch and Jonny Hendricks, both strong wrestlers. These two welterweights are almost mirror images of each other, the difference being Koscheck's stronger striking skills. And, that should be enough for him to eke out a close decision against an opponent who has never been finished. Kos is coming off a dramatic first round KO of HOF'er, Matt Hughes. Take Koscheck and lay the -240.
Former WEC stalwart Scott Jorgensen (13-4) was a successful college wrestler at Boise State. This bantamweight is a hard-charging, never-give-up fighter, who is confident in his skills. He is not intimidated by Brazilian Renan "Baroa" Pegado's 27-fight winning streak. Baroa lost his first fight seven years ago, and hasn't lost since. Half of Baroa's wins are by submission, and I think he gets another one here. Some may argue that the betting value is with Jorgensen, but sorry, I'm not going to try to stop a 27-fight winning streak! Take Baroa and lay the -255.
Middleweight Ed "Short Fuse" Herman (19-8 with 12 submissions) is 2-0 since returning to the Octagon after a 2-year absence due t a serious knee injury. He takes on newcomer, former ASU wrestler Clifford Starks (8-0). The -300 price tag on Herman is too steep. I'll take a chance on an upset here, with Starks returning +240 on a decision victory.
Now let's take a brief look at the undercard ...
Welterweight Matt Riddle (5-3) has had all of his fights in the UFC. His opponent, Henry Martinez (8-1) has had none, and is also a late substitution. Fighting off a pink slip, Riddle should win this, though the price is steep at -350. Riddle would like a finish and he gets here with a submission.
Middleweight Rafael Natal (13-3-1 with 7 submissions) will try to end Michael Kuiper's unbeaten streak (11-0). Cage experience should be enough as I'll take Natal and lay the -185. Let's call it a submission victory.
Featherweight Edwin Figueroa (8-1) should outclass Alex Caceres (6-4) who has lost all of his fights by submission. Add another to the list, and take Figueroa -140, a very reasonable price.
Middleweight Matt Brown is 12-11, yet continues to fight in the UFC! Why? Because he is an aggressive striker with submission skills. He creates entertaining fights, with finishes in 11 of his 12 wins. His Achilles heel is that he has lost 9 fights by submission! But his opponent, Chris Cope (5-2), has no submission wins on his short resume. For that reason, I like Brown here to win by submission himself. Lay the -280.
Featherweight, Dustin Poirier (11-1)is a highly regarded fighter who should have little trouble with new-comer, Max Holloway (4-0). The price is steep at -450, but a small play is warranted.
And, finally, Steven Thompson (5-0) and Daniel Stittgen (7-1) will be making their UFC debuts in a fight I will take a pass on. I need to see more before venturing a wager on either.
So, that's it. Now let's see what we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll. Let's keep the winning streak going!
Let's lay $180 to win $100 on Nick Diaz to survive Condit's attacks.
Let's lay $105 to win $75 on Fabricio Werdum over Big Country.
Let's lay $144 to win $60 on Josh Koscheck to out-point Mike Pierce.
Let's lay $112 to win $50 on Barao's winning streak to continue.
Let's lay $25 to win $60 on a Clifford Starks upset.
Let's lay $140 to win $40 on Matt Riddle fighting off his pink slip.
Let's lay $74 to win $40 on Rafael Natal and his experience.
Let's lay $42 to win $30 on Edwin Figueroa to submit Alex Caseres.
Let's lay $84 to win $30 on Matt "The Immortal" Brown to roll.
Let's lay $90 to win $20 on a Dustin Poirier bridge-jump.
And, let's pass on newcomers, Stephen Thompson and Dan Stittgen.
In all we are risking $996 to win $505. I'll give the remaining $4 to the cocktail waitress for good luck.
Don't forget to give some of your winnings to your local youth wrestling program where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights, I know I will. Now, I'm off to watch the weigh-ins!!!
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