Photo/Zuffa LLC via Getty ImagesEvent: UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida
Venue: Air Canada Centre (Toronto, Canada)
Date: Dec. 10, 2011
As Rev Wrestling Corporation has now launched InterMatFight.com, I am honored to be able to continue making predictions on the outcome of UFC fights for this website. It has been my mission to find and expose the betting edge in mixed martial arts fighting, in order to take advantage of these weaknesses to earn money from Las Vegas bookmakers. The UFC Monster's record on this website is documented below. After a few years of picking winners, we decided to apply those winners to a "fictitious" $1000 bankroll to track for success. We are not endorsing sports betting as anything other than a recreational hobby for those able to manage their money.
In looking for value on the betting line, it starts and stops with the featured match of the UFC light heavyweight between Jon "Bones" Jones (14-1 with only loss a DQ illegal elbow against Matt Hamill) and Lyota "Dragon" Machida (17-2), who not too long ago looked unbeatable. Now Machida is a ridiculous +400 underdog. Wow. That's how dominant Jones has become. If Machida can't beat him, who will? Dan Henderson? Perhaps, but I think Machida has the perfect style to end Bones' run. His feinting, counter-punching style baits most opponents into a stand-up affair, which Machida usually turns into a karate kicking clinic.
He won ALL rounds in his first seven UFC fights! He won his first eight UFC fights. Only Anderson Silva has done better (13). Think about that. He not only was winning, but he won every single round of every single fight ... and now he's a +400 'dog against a rising, young, star? Why? I'm betting Machida until they stop printing bet tickets. Lyoto shocks the world with a stunning second-round KO! And, for one brief moment, I look smart.
The Nogueira brothers are legendary. They are old Pride Fighting legends, who have never been submitted. EVER. These Brazilians have few weaknesses other than age, but in today's UFC arena, age can be fatal to success. Tonight, Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira, aka Big Nog, (33-6-1) will have his hands full with a rematch from a previous KO loss he had to Frank Mir (15-5, all losses by KO). Despite the fact that Big Nog is coming off an impressive KO of Brendan Schaub, that was only the third KO of his career! Mir is living on KOs now. Both are brilliant jiu-jitsu fighters, especially for heavyweights. I see a repeat of the first fight. Mir KOs an old-looking Nogueira in the second round. Lay the -260. Mir, da Man.
Light heavyweight "Little Nog," Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (19-5) has struggled with good wrestlers recently, losing to Phil Davis and Ryan Bader. Tonight he fights UFC HOF'er, legendary "Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Tito Ortiz (16-9-1). Tito made a career of outwrestling and bullying his opponents, usually winning by elbow strikes delivered from a dominate ground-and-pound position. But, that was then, and this is now. Tito has won one fight in the past five years! Yes, one. His fighting days are numbered, and it's not likely he will be able to beat Little Nog here, who has a much better striking game, and has takedown defense good enough to stay off the mat. And, if he is put there, he owns a prestigious black belt that will keep him from getting submitted. This is easy. Take Nogueira and lay the -200. If Tito beats me, I deserve to lose.
Old veteran, welterweight Brian Ebersole (48-14-1) has been on a late career roll, winning his last nine fights! His opponent is Canadian Claude Patrick (14-1), who has won 13 straight, including the last three in the UFC. In an even fight that could go either way, I lean towards the crowd support, youth, and momentum of Patrick to win by close decision. Take the +120 with a small play.
Anyone who saw Mark Homminick's (20-9) tennis ball-sized hematoma on his forehead in his fight with Jose Aldo knows this dude does not quit. He went toe-to-toe against the champion for the full five rounds. Saturday night he starts his climb back into contention with a strikefest against Chan Sung Jung (11-3), the Korean Zombie, whose best bet is to drag Homminick to the mat and try to submit him. But that is not going to happen, and Homminick has too precise of a striking game with his pin-point accuracy and nice setups to lose this one, unless he gets caught early with a game changer. This one should be easy. That's why the price at -400 is so steep. Homminick wins by second-round KO. Let's call this a small bridge jump. You need to know how to swim if you make such plays.
Now lets' take a look at the seven-fight undercard, The following four fights can be seen for free on ION TV for those interested, who can find that obscure channel.
Try saying Krzysztof Soszynski (26-11-1) and Igor Pokrajac (23-8) ten times quickly without getting tongue-tied. Good luck. Soszynski, the Polish Experiment, wins this by brutal second-round TKO. The -225 price is more than fair. Scary dude.
Canadian Yves Jabouin (16-7) has been winning fights by KO. He wins another one here at -160 in beating Walel Watson (9-2), who is making his UFC debut.
Dennis "Superman" Hallman (50-14-2) is another MMA vet who has been at it for more than a decade. He is very formidable and always ready to fight. His opponent, John "The Bull" Makdessa sports an unbeaten 9-0 record with seven KOs. I think the years have taken their toll here, so I'm on Makdessa -155 to win a unanimous decision.
Middleweight Jared Hamman (13-3) should beat Constantino Philippou (8-2). I'll take the favorite and lay the -250. Hamman wins by third round KO.
Mark Bocek (9-4 with eight submissions) is quick and devastating on the mat. Minnesota's Nik "Carny" Lentz (21-3-2) is a relentless, scrappy wrestler who gives you every ounce of sweat he has ... Fight of the Night? Could have some value there. In a coin flip, I'm making a small play on Bocek at -130 to win by split decision.
Rich "The Raging Bull" Attonito (10-4) is 3-1 in the UFC and appears to have more weapons than Jake "Hitman" Hecht (10-2). Let's try the favorite again and lay the -220. Toe-to-toe until someone drops.
John Cholish (7-1) is from Hackettstown, N.J., and trains with the Renzo Gracie jiu-jitsu camp. That's enough for me against Canadian Mitch Clarke (9-0), who is most likely on the card for local interest and in over his head based on his limited portfolio in small venues. Cholish at -300 finishes by rear-naked choke in the second round.
OK, now let's look at what we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll ...
Let's lay $100 to win $400 on Lyota Machida to end Bones Jones' streak.
Let's lay $130 to win $50 on Frank Mir to beat Big Nog again.
Let's lay $120 to win $60 on Little Nog Nogueira.
Let's lay $50 to win $ 60 on Claude Patrick.
Let's lay $120 to win $30 on Mark Homminick.
Let's lay $90 to win $40 on Krzysztof Soszynski.
Let's lay $48 to win $30 on Yves Jabouin.
Let's lay $62 to win $40 on John Makdessi.
Let's lay $75 to win $30 on Jared Hamman.
Let's lay $52 to win $40 on Mark Bocek.
Let's lay $60 to win $20 on John Cholish.
Let's lay $88 to win $40 on Rich Attonito.
In total we are risking $995 to win $840. We will use the other $5 to save towards an InterMat Platinum subscription. In just six short months, you will have enough to enjoy the best wrestling writing anywhere (see any Mark Palmer article for proof).
Good luck, and don't forget to give some of your profits to your local youth wrestling program where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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