Venue: Mandalay Bay; Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: Oct. 29, 2011
The UFC Monster is in Las Vegas for UFC 137 trying to extend his winning streak for InterMat readers. Our mission is to find weaknesses and value in the Las Vegas betting line, as it relates to mixed martial arts fighting. There is money to be made on a card that has been changed numerous times. For starters, welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre was to fight WEC champion Nick Diaz in a five round title fight. But Diaz failed to show up to a couple of promotional events, and was tossed from the main event by UFC President Dana White. Carlos Condit, scheduled to fight B.J. Penn, was then elevated to fight GSP, with Diaz dropping to fight Penn. But GSP hurt his knee and was forced out, so Condit has no fight! And, B.J. and Nick now are the main event! How about that?
And, what a main event it is. Both are marquee names that would look good on the other's resume. Both are world-class jiu-jitsu fighters, and neither has ever been submitted! Wow. But, both prefer to stand and strike, and each has boxing skills as good as it comes in the UFC. I think B.J. (16-7-2) has quicker hands and more power in his strikes. But Diaz has a high intensity pawing style that is relentless and often frustrates his opponents. Diaz (25-7-1) has triathlon cardio, while B.J. often gasses late. Anything can happen when two of my favorite fighters lock up. This should be the Fight of the Night (FON).
B.J. opened as a slight underdog, and I continued to bet on him until he is now the -125 favorite. Now Diaz is the slight underdog. In a battle for the ages, I'll lay it with B.J. Penn as he stuns the MMA world with a second round KO of the Stockton punk. I love Diaz, but B.J. gets the win.
Two powerful heavyweights, Cheick Kongo (16-6-2) and Matt Mitrione (5-0), should give the crowd what they want, lots of toe-to-toe slugging, and a sure KO from someone. This one shouldn't go the distance. Mitrione has won all of his UFC fights, while Kongo is coming off a miracle win over Pat Barry. I like the experience of Kongo here. Mitrione has done well, but this is a step up for him, and he may be in over his head with a beast like Kongo. I'll take my chances on the Frenchman Kongo at +120. Kongo wins by second round KO.
Heavyweight Mirko Cro-Cop Filipovic (27-9-2) used to dominate Japan's Pride fighting. But he has aged and lost his power since arriving on the UFC scene. He is a shadow of his previous self these days. His opponent is "Big Country" Roy Nelson (16-6), a surprisingly athletic fighter with a great ground game, who looks like he has never spent a day in the gym based on his flabby physique. Looks can be deceiving according to the oddsmakers, who have installed Nelson as a -260 favorite. I'll take the value of +220 on the Croatian, and hope that he has a few more good fights in him. Cro-Cop wins with a late third round KO as Big Country gasses like he did against Cain Velasquez, who destroyed him.
Japan's Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2) makes his UFC debut tonight against George Roop (12-7-1). Most highly-touted Japanese fighters have fallen flat in the UFC, but this might be different. Roop is capable and long and lanky which may give the more compact Hioki trouble. But I think Hioki has enough of a diverse skill set to get the job done Saturday, and he is heavily favored to do so. Take Hioki and lay the -325 as he wins a unanimous decision.
Nobody on tonight's card has more experience than bantamweight (135 pounds) Jeff Curran (33-13-1). He is also extremely strong on the ground with submissions dominating his victories. His opponent, WEC's Scott Jorgensen (12-4), is aggressive and relentless with ample striking and a good defensive ground game. But making Curran a +325 'dog? Are you kidding me? I have to bite on that! Let's hope that Curran finds a way to lock one up on Jorgensen, and wins by second round submission. Grab the 'dog here. Great value.
Now let's take a quick look at the formidable undercard ...
Lightweight (155 pounds) Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (19-7) is on a roll. He has won seven of his last nine, losing twice to Ben Henderson by decision. Cerrone is another WEC product who is lanky (6'0" tall), a very good striker, and has a lethal submission game that carries him. His kick-boxing opponent is the short (5'7") and stocky German, Dennis Siver. Cerrone at -220 will trade shots, while setting up a takedown. Once on the mat it is over for Siver. Another rear-naked choke ends this one late in the first period. The Cowboy rides on to fight another day.
Lightweight Tyson Griffin (15-5) was the first to defeat Uriah Faber. This strong wrestler has won most of his fights by decision, but has lost three of his last four. Journeyman veteran, Bart Palaszewski (33-13) is yet another WEC product. He will need to land some shots if he wants to win this one. I don't see that happening. I see Griffin at -300 cruising to another unanimous decision, controlling all the way.
Light heavyweight Brandon Vera (11-5) once was considered to be championship material. But that was then and this is now ... Vera has now won only three of his last nine fights in the Octagon, so why is he such a big favorite at –425 to beat Elliott Marshall (8-4)? I have no clue, and will take the 'dog on principle alone! Marshall squeaks out a close decision at +350.
Chris Camozzi (15-4) should use his Octagon experience to beat Francis Carmont. I'll lay the -130 on Carmozzi by decision.
Two undefeated fighters make their UFC debuts tonight when middleweights (185 pounds), Dustin Jacoby (6-0) and Clifford Starks (7-0), go at it. In a pick 'em affair, I'll pass. This fight replaces the scheduled Brad Tavares vs. Tim Credeur.
And, finally welterweight Ramsey Nijem at -200 is getting all the action out here in Vegas against youthful Danny Downes. And, in a sport with a limited betting fan base, money moves usually indicate where the "smart money" is going. In this case it is going down on Nijem. So, I'll follow suit. Nijem by submission in the first.
Now let's see what we can do with our fictitious $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $125 to win $100 on B.J. Penn to get the better of Nick Diaz.
Let's lay $70 to win $84 on Cheick Kongo to end Matt Mitrione's unbeaten streak.
Let's lay $50 to win $110 on Mirko Cro-Cop to keep his career alive.
Let's lay $130 to win $40 on Hatsu Hioki's UFC debut.
Let's lay $ 60 to win $195 on Jeff Currans return to the UFC.
Let's lay $220 to win $100 on Donald Cerrone's submission techniques.
Let's lay $50 to win $175 on Elliot Marshall's upset of Brandon Vera.
Let's lay $150 to win $50 on Tyson Griffin getting back on track.
Let's lay $65 to win $50 on Chris Camozzi.
Let's lay $80 to win $40 on Ramsey Nijim.
... and, we will pass on newcomers Jacoby and Starks.
In all, we are risking $1000 to win $944. Not bad. I hope to continue to make a profit for InterMat readers. And, I hope InterMat readers will reciprocate by renewing their InterMat Platinum subscriptions! It pays for itself.
And please don't forget to give some of your winnings to your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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