Pepsi Center; Denver, Colorado
September 24, 2011
Eighteen years ago The UFC was launched in Denver as an eight-man tournament of various mixed martial arts disciplines, with the winnerneeding to survive three fights in an evening to be crowned champion. I was fortunate to be watching the event live at the time. I soon became addicted to this old, but “new†sport of mixed martial arts.
The smallest of the entrants, Brazilian Royce Gracie, wearing a white gi with belt attached, rolled through the tournament with his chokehold submissions that forced his opponents to “tap outâ€. Brazilian jui-jitsu was soon king, and young boys in impoverished countries took to the mats indroves to learn such techniques of self-defense.
Soon athletes were cross-training, adding multiple fight disciplines to their resumes. One-dimensional fighters soon became a dying breed in the UFC. But, we learned that those with wrestling backgrounds were by far the better fighters. Whether it was the ability to control your opponent's body on the mat, or to use wrestling as a defensive tactic to avoid take-downs, those with a wrestling pedigree rose quickly to the top of the food chain.
And, now the sport has exploded, and is the fastest growing sport out there. Everybody wants to be a fighter. Wrestling provides the foundation. Now the challenge for amateur wrestling is to find a way to keep their better athletes wrestling, when the BIG BUCKS are there for the taking in mixed martial arts! Many of wrestling's elite, have left that sport to become MMA fighters, like it or not, while amateur wrestling struggles to survive and cultivate a growing fan base. That's the challenge ahead........Intermat is here to bridge that gap and cultivate that relationship.
The UFC Monster was born with the mission of winning money wagering on such events. For those who followed my picks for UFC 134, you would have won almost $300 ($292) from my selections! And, tonight's card has even more opportunities than that, as I find the card to be full of barking ‘dogs with outstanding ROI (return on investment) potential. Never have I played more underdogs on a UFC card than I am tonight!.......I feel like I'm watching a ‘dog show, not a fight event............wha.wha.
So, let's take a look at tonight's action-packed 10-fight card, and try to make some money doing it. This is where the fun starts........
The main event is the light-heavyweight (205 lbs) title fight (5 rounds) featuring 24-year-old champion Jonny “Bones†Jones (13-1 with 8 KOs) battling the legendary Quinton “Rampage†Jackson (32-8), a trash-talking street slugger you wouldn't want to meet in a dark alley. Rampage is strong with a rock hard head and lead in his fists. His experience has put him in
many wars, and if he can avoid the KO from Jones, he could survive in the later rounds where Jones has never been. The public is pounding Bones Jones, and they should, but I have to take the value on the howling ‘dog at +400 now. Rampage pulls the upset with a stunning ground-and-pound victory in the fourth period. I mean, seriously, is Bones Jones going to win all of his fights?.............I think not. Is Rampage in his head? I hope so.
I never bet on welterweight Matt Hughes (45-8, with 11 years of fighting)anymore, as he no longer dominates his division like he used to. He struggles to even win these days. But, he still has HOF credentials, and only takes those fights he expects to win. And, he expects to win here against the brash former wrestling AA, Josh Koscheck (15-5). Both are
great wrestlers, but Kos likes to stand and bang instead. That has been his downfall (see GSP and Paulo Thiago for details). Hughes' striking has improved (ask Renzo Gracie about it...). And, nobody is going to dominate him on the mat. Therefore, I give the former champ a chance to survive the three-round onslaught, and out-work Koscheck to gain a narrow decision. Fighting is also a cerebral game, and Hughes has a big edge there. I'm betting on Hughes at an amazing +400 and I'm going for “Hughes by decision†at 6:1 odds! Koscheck was a late replacement for the injured Diego Sanchez, so that helps as well.......Mistakes cost Koscheck here.
The beauty of betting big ‘dogs (anything over +200) is that you can win just one-out-of-three and still show a profit. Do the math. It works........So,let's try another: Heavyweight slugger, Mark Hunt (6-7, yes a losing record), takes on veteran Ben Rothwell (31-7), another heavyweight who likes to stand toe-to-toe and trade punches. Rothwell looked terrible in getting dominated and TKO'd by current champion, Cain Velasquez. And, Hunt is no Velasquez. But he does have a puncher's chance to land his powerful KO. And, at +275, I'll take my chances. Hunt cashes big with a second round “lights out†KO. While I laugh my way to the bank.
If I hit just one of the above three fights, I'm ahead............so, let's move on.
I love the punk Diaz brothers, Nick and Nate. Always have, always will. I guess I am intrigued how these non-athletic looking fighters are so good? They punch and paw at their opponents like girl's would fight. They frustrate and taunt and talk trash throughout their fights. And, their biggest weapon is often their middle finger. And, yet they win and win and
win........It's younger bro' Nate's turn tonight. He has a 6†reach advantage that he will use well, as he puts his 13-7 record on the line against Japanese legend Takonori Gomi (32-7), a striker with a bit of ground game. Gomi was good enough to KO Tyson Griffin! But, he will get submitted here with that lanky triangle choke hold that makes Nate famous. Take Nate Diaz to cash tonight at -250, while his older brother waits to fight BJ Penn in a month.
Undefeated heavyweight Travis Browne (11-0-1 with 9 KOs) should have little problem with Rob “The Bear†Broughton (15-5). Browne is the better striker and wrestler, and that's all it takes to control where this fight takes place. And, it takes place in my living room tonight. I will make a healthy play on Browne at -340, the nearest thing to a “bridge jump†for me tonight. A first round KO makes this one look easy. Shoulda bet more?
Now let's take a quick look at tonight's undercard. The next two fights can be seen for FREE on Spike TV. The other three are available on the UFC's Facebook page. But the UFC Monster doesn't do Facebook. I'm old school.
I love lightweight Aaron Riley (30-12-1) because he is old school, too, and always brings it. He is an aggressive striker who gives you your money's worth of effort. But he is a pure journeyman in the UFC, going nowhere, but still having a name to add to your resume. This is what TUF winner Tony Ferguson (11-2) is being fed here tonight, a stepping stone to a budding career. I would love to make the case for Riley's experience, but Ferguson's wrestling keeps me away from that. I'll make a small play on Ferguson at -350. Ferguson by decision. Good luck to Riley.
When Tim Boetsch (13-4) dropped from a small light-heavyweight to a big middleweight, his punching power came with him. Nick Ring (12-0) presents a formidable opponent, but I like Boetch's deeper Octagon experience here, and slightly better wrestling skills to control the clinches and eke out a close decision win. Lay the -150 on Boetsch. Another unbeaten fighter bites the dust!
Bantamweight Cole Escovedo (17-7) has had a few shots in the UFC, but he never seems to survive long enough to stick. Maybe tonight, huh, as a +160 ‘dog?.........Yes, I think so. Cole's ground game should be good enough to avoid submissions from his opponent, Takeya Mizugaki (14-6-2). A determined effort will be good enough to land me more money than I risk. I like getting +160 on a desperate fighter, trying to survive. Escovedo by submission.
Light-heavyweight Ricardo Romero (11-2) is another underdog I like. He had won six straight before losing to Kyle Kingsbury at UFC 126, and is the better wrestler here. I think he wins by second round submission tonight against James Te Huna (12 5). I'll gladly accept the +130 odds to win.
And, Eddie “The Filipino Phenom†Yagin (15-4-1) opened as a slight ‘dog to veteran Junior Assuncao (12-4), but the public has pounded him, making him now the -140 favorite! Why?.........Maybe because he (and Joe Warren) are the only fighters to ever beat the awesome Joe Soto? Maybe. And he beat him just a few months ago!.......I'll ride the momentum of that one, and will give Yagin a second round KO here. Lay the juice.
So, that's it. Let's see if our money management skills can match our bold predictions:
Let's lay $100 to win $400 on Rampage breaking Bones to shock the world.
Let's lay $100 to win $400 on HOF'er Matt Hughes to humble Kos.
Let's lay $100 to win $275 on wildman Mark Hunt to score a stunning KO.
Let's lay $150 to win $ 60 on the younger Diaz brother, Nate. It's sub time.
Let's lay $170 to win $ 50 on a Travis Browne “bridge jumpâ€. 1st round KO.
Let's lay $ 70 to win $ 20 on Tony Ferguson. No value, but should win.
Let's lay $105 to win $ 70 on Tim Boetsch's better all around game.
Let's lay $ 60 to win $ 96 on Cole Escovedo's return to the Octagon.
Let's lay $ 60 to win $ 78 on Ricardo Romero by submission.
Let's lay $ 84 to win $ 60 on Eddie Yagin to dominate with TKO.
In all, we are risking $999 to win a whopping $1509. Let's git ‘er done!!!
And, don't forget to give some of your profits to your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born!
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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