Venue: HSBC Arena (Rio de Janerio, Brazil)
Date: August 27, 2011
Tonight's UFC card comes to us from Brazil and features a whole slew of young, aggressive fighters from the hotbed of mixed martial arts. The city known for its large stable of jiu-jitsu fighters, sold out their venue in a matter of hours. Tonight it's Brazil vs. the World. And the greatest fighter in UFC history, middleweight Anderson "The Spider" Silva, will try to avenge his last loss, a DQ for illegal kick to Yushin Okami.
But Silva is an outrageous -525 favorite, so I see no value there in betting on him. But I don't see Okami winning either, as his style is made-to-order for the Spider. Okami loves to strike and clinch. But Silva will stay his distance. Okami has great takedown defense, but Silva doesn't try to take you down. I think the best bet with the best value is to take +700 on Silva winning by submission. Why? Okami has never been submitted. That's why. I can see Silva knocking Okami to the canvas with his lethal strikes, then pouncing on him, and securing a choke hold to end it. At +700, I'll certainly take my chances on that happening. I will also be betting that the fight does NOT go 4.5 rounds, and I will lay -205 on that winner. Silva wins by submission in the second round.
In another revenge match, light heavyweight Maricio "Shogun" Rua will look to avenge his only submission loss of his career to Forrest Griffin. The oddsmakers have Shogun at -225 to do it, and I agree. Except for his decisive loss to Jonny "Bones" Jones, Shogun has been steam-rolling through opponents. Forrest is game, but Rua wins a decision here, and I go to the winner's window again.
Heavyweight Minotauro Nogueira is a legend in MMA. But his better days are behind him. Today he looks old, slow, and out-of-touch with today's MMA athlete. Enter one Brendan Schaub, a knockout beast, who ends most of his fights (6 KOs in less than 1:30 minutes) in the very first round. One athlete is on the way up, while the other is fading into the sunset. Which would you take? I'll take Schaub and lay the -250. He wins again by first round KO.
My best bet of the night is Edson Barbosa -300, a lightweight monster who has strong jits, but knocks everybody out instead. His opponent, Ross Pearson, is a made-to-order victim, as he likes to stand and trade punches. That strategy won't work here. Barbosa ends it in the first round securing "Knockout of the Night" at 6:1. His muscle flex on top of the octagon cage will tell you everything you need to know. Look out for Edson Barbosa. He's the real deal.
Finally I find an underdog I can play. I like Russian Stanislav Nedkov to hang with Brazilian striker Luis Cane. Cane is a deadly striker, but somewhat slow on his feet. Nedkov can counter-punch and dance, and something tells me he can cash at +190 by outscoring his opponent and winning a close decision. Oddsmakers see this fight ending with another Cane KO. I see it differently. I'll take the juicy price on Nedkov.
Now let's take a quick look at the undercard ...
I love lightweight Spencer "The King" Fisher, who brings it every time out. He is a relentless stalker who strikes with both punches and kicks, but he will have his hands full tonight with Brazilian jiu-jitsu expert Thiago Tavares, who is the -220 favorite here. I will pass on this fight, as I think Tavares will probably win, but Fisher is a wounded dog who will fight for his UFC life. He has lost two in a row, and a third loss might give him his pink slip. That scares me.
If you want to see a beast with great jits, look no further than middleweight Brazilian Rousimar Palhares. He is big and strong, with experience, and his ground game is as good as it gets. He will break your ankle with his hands. Dan Miller has strong jits, as well. But hometown crowd and a stronger ground game leads to a third round submission win for Palihares. Lay the -250.
Another Brazilian, welterweight, Paulo Thiago, is on a different level that his opponent, David Mitchell, a green up-and-comer. With two consecutive losses Thiago gets his game back on track here as a heavy -400 favorite. A second round choke hold wins this one.
Former WEC star, lightweight Rafael Assuncao, has more experience and a more rounded game than his opponent tonight, highly-touted Johnny Eduardo. A unanimous decision at -165 gets me another winner on tonight's card.
Yuri Alcantara has never fought outside of Brazil. Tonight he will challenge for KO of the night at +500 odds. A convincing body shot TKO will end this in the first round, and give Alcantara -400 a travel visa for the United States.
Another mismatch will find Erick Silva -270 winning a decision over Luis Ramos.
And finally, I sniff out another underdog, Yves Jabouin +160, who will surprise the crowd with an abrupt KO to start the third round.
We won $137 on the last UFC 133 card. Let's see if we can do it again? Here's what we will do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll:
Let's lay $ 20 to win $140 on the Spider to win by submission. Any other result, we lose.
Let's lay $103 to win $50 on Silva/Okami UNDER 4.5 rounds in their title fight.
Let's lay $112 to win $50 on Shogun Rua to get his revenge on Forrest Griffin.
Let's lay $125 to win $50 on Brendan Schaub to KO and retire Minotaura Nogueira.
Let's lay $40 to win $78 on Stanslav Nedkov to pull an upset.
Let's lay $100 to win $25 on Paulo Thiago's experience to get the job done.
Let's lay $54 to win $20 on Erick Silva.
Let's lay $80 to win $20 on Yuri Alcantara.
Let's lay $125 to win $50 on Rousimar Palhares to break a limb.
Let's lay $50 to win $30 Rafael Assuncao to roll …
Let's lay $40 to win $64 on Yves Jabouin.
... and we will pass on Fisher vs. Tavares.
In all we are risking $999 to win $627, playing 9 faves, 2 'dogs, and one no play.
Don't forget to give part of your winnings to support your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born!
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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