Venue: Wells Fargo Arena (Philadelphia, Pa.)
Date: Aug. 6, 2011
Coming off a 5-0 Strikeforce card, including two underdogs, the UFC Monster is back at it again, trying to beat the oddsmakers with tonight's UFC action. Betting on superior wrestlers against hot-shot strikers has been a winning and recession-beating strategy in mixed martial arts. Let's see if we can find some winners again tonight ...
In what might be the lamest UFC card ever, due to injuries and cancellations, we find Rashad "Suga" Evans (15-1-1) fighting future HOF'er Tito "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Ortiz (16-8-1), once the face of the UFC. Evans was supposed to fight Jon Jones for the light heavyweight belt, but he finds himself in a rematch with Tito instead. Unfortunately, Jones suffered an injury in his beating of Shogun Rua. Evans and Ortiz fought four years ago, and the fight ended in a draw! Tonight that score gets settled.
There is no value in the betting line with Evans installed as a -400 favorite. But Tito was 0-4-1 in his last fights before miraculously catching ASU's Ryan Bader in a choke hold. Other than beating up rival Ken Shamrock three times, Tito has been over-the-hill and AWOL forever. Now he fights a former champion on just one month's rest! Good luck with that. Rashad wins by second-round KO. It's OK to lay the heavy lumber in this lock. Rashad is the better athlete, wrestler, and striker. This is easy.
One of my all-time favorite fighters, Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort (19-9), takes on formidable Yoshihiro "Sexy" Akiyama (13-3), who is 1-2 in the UFC. Not only has Belfort dropped to middleweight where his quick hands and powerful striking will dominate, but Akiyama is made to order for my Brazilian friend. Akiyama will be handed his pink slip early here, as Belfort responds from his kick-in-the-face loss to Anderson Silva by KO'ing Akiyama before the bell sounds to end the first round. Lay the -300 and enjoy the beating. I am also betting this as KO of the night, and quickest KO of the night, both at +450.
Who really cares about journeyman veterans Dennis "Superman" Hallman (50-13-2) vs. Brian "Bad Boy" Ebersole (47-14-1)? I don't. The betting line is -115 either way, and that's where it should be as either guy can win. Both are best at submissions, but this stalemate should end in a decision. Expect plenty of back-and-forth action in a meaningless fight that I will pass on. I don't even know why it's on the main card ... next:
Jorge "El Conquistador" Rivera (19-8) was to fight Alexio Sakara, but injuries restructured that fight to this, a strikefest with Constantino Philippou (7-2), who lost his UFC debut to unknown Nick Catone. Rivera went from an underdog to a favorite. Experience matters here, and Rivera is fighting on borrowed time. He needs a win badly here, and will get it with a vicious, and I mean vicious, second-round KO of his less experienced rival. Jorge is a bargain at -140.
Another fight that baffles me for being on the main card, is up-and-comer, Rory MacDonald (11-1), against journeyman veteran, Mike "Quicksand" Pyle (21-7-1). Both will be active trying to set up the submission games, but MacDonald should prevail. I find the -275 reasonable. A second-round rear-naked choke submission will end this.
Now let's take a quick look at the undercard, which I find to be as attractive as the main card. Joe Silva, whaddup with that?
Chad "Money" Mendes (10-0) has been money in the bank. This lightning quick wrestler has over-powered and outworked every one of his opponents, and he is heading quickly up the food chain. He should roll through submission guru, former WEC star Rani Yahya (16-6), who's only hope is to sink in a submission hold before Mendes pushes him around the Octagon. There is no value at -600, though, so I'll watch this fight with splinters in my butt.
Who doesn't love Matt "The Hammer" Hamill (10-3), the deaf wrestler with lead in his fists? Matt's gentle demeanor is anything but a fighter's. And his slow-prodding style, and willingness to stand and strike, often gets him in trouble. His opponent, Alexander Gustafsson (11-1), is perhaps more athletic, quicker, and the better striker. So what? I like wrestlers, so I'm hoping that Matt uses his brains and skill set to drag the Swede to the ground, and make him eat fists. At +160, I'll take my chances on Hamill. The ref stops this one in the third round, as he pulls the gentle giant off the bloody corpse.
Ivan Menjivar (22-8) will try to use his experience to get by the determined Nick Pace (6-1). I'll go with the veteran here, and lay the -200, expecting to get awarded a decisive decision. Menjivar -200 is the play.
Two great wrestlers go head-to-head when Okie State's Johny Hendricks (10-1) takes on Mike Pierce (12-3), who's 4-1 in the UFC with his only loss being to Jon Fitch. When two wrestlers meet, surprising you often see a boxing match evolve. If that is the case here, then Hendo has the edge. Six of his 10 wins have come by KO. He is the master of the upper cut. For some strange reason the oddsmakers opened the betting with Hendricks as a slight underdog. I got on early. Now Hendo carries a -125 price tag. It won't be easy, but I like Hendo to win here. By KO (I also took the 12:1 odds for KO of the night). Johny wins, "you know what I'm sayin'?"
Nam Phan (16-8) will always be remembered for his courage and guts in his epic toe-to-toe battles with Leonard Garcia. Tonight he has to find a way to beat former WEC champion Mike Thomas Brown (24-8), who will always be remembered as beating the unbeatable Urijah Faber TWICE! Brown has struggled since, but his brute strength, quickness, and diversified attack will be enough to overwhelm Phan and gain some momentum in his attempt to climb the mountain. I like Brown -205 to win by second round submission.
Newcomer Paul "The Gentleman" Bradley (18-2) makes his UFC debut tonight against Rafael "Sapo" Natal (12-3-1), who is a disappointing 0-2 in the UFC. Both are best at submissions. Natal opened as a slight -125 favorite, but the betting public is pounding Bradley, who now is as high as -140 to win! Why? ... I have no clue. Bradley, a former Iowa wrestler, has been fighting out of the Minnesota Martial Arts Academy in venues at Black River Falls, Wis. and Podunk, Iowa. His last three opponents include a guy who is 1-39 and another who is 0-9!!! What the ... ? This guy has not only never been to the Big Show, but who the heck has he even fought? On principle alone, I'm taking Natal at +110. I'll say he wins a decision or gets a submission victory.
Now let's see if we can turn these winners into some cash with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll:
Let's lay $160 to win $40 in a bridge jump on Rashad Evans.
Let's lay $150 to win $50 on Vitor Belfort's quick hands and KO power.
Let's pass on Hallman/Ebersole and just enjoy the action.
Let's lay $112 to win $80 on Jorge Rivera keeping his UFC career alive.
Let's lay $110 to win $40 on Rory MacDonald's submission skills.
Let's pass on Mendes/Rahya. Price too steep on Money.
Let's lay $60 to win $ 96 with a big smile on our faces for the Hammer.
Let's lay $100 to win $50 on Menjivar.
Let's lay $125 to win $100 on Johny Hendo, and wish we had laid more.....
Let's lay $123 to win $60 on Mike Brown to get back on track.
Let's lay $ 60 to win $66 on Sapo Natal to send Bradley back to the farm.
In all, we are risking $1000 to try and win $582.
I feel confident in my selections, tho' the butterflies come late.
Don't forget to share your winnings with your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born!
Enjoy the fights, I know I will.
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