Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena (Las Vegas, Nevada)
Date: May 28, 2011
Tonight's UFC 130 fight card was supposed to be headlined with Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard's rematch for the lightweight title. But injuries to both have forced that action off the card, and moved the legendary Quinton "Rampage" Jackson into the spotlight as he takes on Matt "The Hammer" Hamill, who has won five in a row. Despite the disappointment in losing Edgar/Maynard III, tonight's card offers plenty of intrigue and lots of hard-hitting action. It is my job to find weaknesses in the Las vegas betting line, and try to pick winners for Intermat readers. So let's take a quick look and see what we find.
Matt Hamill (10-2) is the only man on the planet to have beaten Jon "Bones" Jones the amazing UFC light heavyweight champion. But he did it by disqualification after Jones used illegal downward elbows to demolish Hamill's face. Poor Matt was getting blasted before the ref stopped the fight and awarded him the awkward win. We all love Matt for his courage to train hard and fight despite being deaf. And, the lead he carries in his powerful fists is nothing to scoff at. But Rampage (31-8) is a different rabid beast. He howls at the moon, and uses street smarts to put his opponents away, usually with a knockout punch for the ages. We've seen a dozen years of his stuff. He ain't afraid of nobody.
As much as the +220 price tag is appealing, I don't think Hamill has the speed or quickness to fight Rampage effectively. I see a slow, plodding, yet determined effort, falling by the wayside midway through the second period, as Rampage clocks him with an overhand right, ending it by KO.
Heavyweight Frank Mir (14-5) has always been one of my favorites. His cockiness has been well-earned, as he is a former UFC champion. He also is one of the very best jiu-jitsu fighting heavyweights. His boxing has improved dramatically, and he has overcome a severe motorcycle accident to improve with every outing. And then there is Roy "Country" Nelson (15-5), who looks like an out-of-shape, blubber-bellied truck mechanic. But don't be fooled. Roy can fight and his KO power compliments an underrated ground game.
Mir's five losses have all come by KO. Nobody has won a decision against him. And nobody has submitted Mr. Mir. And, nobody will tonight either. I see a testy, slow-paced couple of rounds, until early in the third, when Mir grabs an appendage and drags the farm boy to the mat. There it ends with an vicious armbar as Roy screams in pain. Mir is a bargain at -135. This is my best bet of the evening.
In my "Fight of the Night," UFC veteran (13 octagon fights), welterweight Thiago Alves (18-7 w/11 KOs) will battle with Rick "Horror" Story (12-3), who was the first man to beat Okie State's Jonny Hendricks. Both fighters bring it, and both fighters are aggressive in pressing the pace. I see plenty of action and both will have their hands full. This one will be bet as my FON, but I will also lay the -210 on Alves with his vast experience being the difference.
If you like watching giants fight, you will love 6'8" Stefan Struve (21-4) and 6'7" Travis Brown (10-0-1) battle. Struve uses his mediocre boxing to set up his powerful submission game. His long appendages make his ground game lethal. Brown will try to keep it standing as he wins his fights by KO. So, we have two different styles, which always makes for an interesting fight. Both have awesome records, but only one advances tonight ... I'll wager that Struve survives the first round pounding and gets his second round submission with an shoulder-popping arm bar to cash at +115.
Former U.S. Marine Brian Stann has used his adrenaline and military focus for his buddies to carve out an impressive 10-3 record, winning most fights by KO. His opponent, Jorge Santiago (23-8 w/12 submissions) is another of the long list of Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighters who can end it quickly if you make a mistake. This one should have Stann punching away, as Santiago tries to drag him to the mat. Eventually he will, and that is where it will end. Santiago will end this with a rear-naked choke and send me to the winner's window with a +125 ‘dog. Upset special.
Now, let's take a brief look at tonight's undercard.
Is Miguel Torres (39-3) back? Or is Mighty Mouse Demetrious Johnson (8-1) for real? Johnson can sure wrestle, but Torres has a wider arsenal of weapons. I like Torres at an extremely cheap price of -120. Another rear-naked choke ends this one.
Free-swinging middleweight Kendall Grove (12-8) uses his lanky 6'6" frame to keep opponents away. He also has a great ground game where his lankiness is used to leverage opponents. But Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch (12-4) is a light heavyweight who is cutting down to see if his power will transfer to a lower weight class. I think it will, and I'm hoping for a mild upset with Boetsch winning a close decision. I'll grab the +125.
Veteran Gleison Tibau (22-7 w/10 decisions) is still improving. Rafaelio Oliveira (14-3) is formidable and will look to win by submission. I'm liking his +280 price tag and will hope for the best. Another surprise upset.
Brazilian Renan Barao (25-1 w/12 submission) has built up an impressive record with many fights of lesser opponents in Brazil. But 25-1 is 25-1. He should cruise over Cole Escovedo (17-6 w/10 submissions). This will be a ground test of who has the best jits. Barao does, so lay the heavy -350.
Michael McDonald (12-1) should defeat Chris Cariaso (11-2), but the price is too steep at -400, so I will pass on this action.
That's 10 fights. We have five favorites and four underdogs with 1 no play. I like that distribution. I hope I have found some barking dogs. Now let's look at how we divide up our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll.......
Let's lay $156 to win $60 on Rampage.
Let's lay $189 to win $140 on Frank Mir.
Let's lay $126 to win $60 on Thiago Alves.
Let's lay $60 to win $69 on Stefan Struve.
Let's lay $60 to win $75 on Jorge Santiago.
Let's lay $120 to win $100 on Miguel Torres.
Let's lay $74 to win $92 on Tim Boetsch.
Let's lay $175 to win $50 on Renan Barao.
Let's lay $40 to win $112 on Rafaelio Oliveira.
Let's pass on Michael McDonald.
In total we are risking $1000 to win $758. We need our big favorites to come through, and a few winning, barking 'dogs would seal the deal.
Don't forget to share your winnings with your local youth wrestling program where tomorrow's champions are born!
Good luck and enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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