Venue: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Canada
Date: April 30, 2011
If you like watching Canadians fight, then tonight is your night! In what will be the largest live audience ever for an MMA event, 55,000 will be in attendance to see their favorite Canadians do battle with some of the sports best fighters. There are two five round title fights featured on a card with a dozen fights. So let's get busy trying to find the betting value in this record breaking affair.
Welterweight Georges St. Pierre (21-2) could be elected Canadian Prime Minister he is so popular. He has eaten up all competition in his weight class, despite being criticized for fighting boring fights, and being unable to finish his opponents. Tonight he plans to finish former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields (26-4-1), whose sixteen fight-winning streak spans over six years! St. Pierre is perhaps better in each fight category, with the exception of jiu-jitsu, where Shields has the Cesar Gracie pedigree. Jake trains with the deadly Diaz brothers (Nick being the Strikeforce welterweight champion), and Gilbert Melendez, who is already posted as a -130 favorite to beat current UFC champion Frankie Edgar, if he gets by Gray Maynard on May 28.
I love GSP, but how can you make Shields a +320 underdog against anyone? He beat the crap out of Dan Henderson for Pete's sakes! And, you don't think Hendo would hang with GSP? I do, and so will Shields as he shocks the world with a stunning rear-naked choke against the future HOF'er. GSP's reign ends with a third round submission.
The first ever UFC featherweight (145 pounds) title is on the line tonight with Jose "Scarface" Aldo (18-1) making his UFC debut as the UFC champion against Canadian Mark "The Machine" Hominick (20-8), whose relentless pace and striking skills give him hope. But as he will soon learn, Aldo is a freak on a different level. Jose's explosive speed and devastating kicks make him impossible to corner. He mauls his opponents, and leaves them in heaps on the mat. Hominick may come out firing, but he will soon be another name notched into Aldo's golden belt. A -465 bridge jump is warranted as this one ends before the fight is half over (a prop bet that I added to my deposit slip). Aldo wins by KO in second round.
Tonight's card will be memorable, if for no other reason, it is Randy "The Natural" Couture's (19-10) last fight! And, it is a fight that he has wanted to have ever since Lyota "The Dragon" Machida (16-2) won his light-heavyweight belt. Randy calls Lyota the Rubick's Cube of MMA. But unfortunately Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson have already figured out the solution. Randy attempts to make it three straight losses for Machida, but is a huge +280 underdog in his venture. PERFECT.
As much as I love Machida for his humbleness and unique fighting skills, I love Randy as a 'dog more. Bring it on! We know Randy will try to force the action against the cage with another dirty boxing clinic. But can he catch the quicker, more elusive Dragon? I hope so. Unless Lyota catches him with a stunning knockout like he did against Rashad Evans, or dances to victory like he is likely to do, Randy has a chance. We know the scene, and it is based on Greco Roman wrestling. Let's hope Randy goes out in style ... one more time, Randy. Please, just one more time! I think he wins by decision. I mean really, what judge wants to go against this legend in his final fight? No one. Thank you, Randy, for the memories and your gracious representation of the sport we all love (wrestling). We will miss you dearly.
Light heavyweight fighters Jason Brilz (18-3) and Vladimer Matyushenko (25-5) are mirror images of each other, though Brilz is the younger fighter on the rise and "The Janitor" is in the twilight of his career. Simple math puts me on Brilz to grind out a convincing decision on the mat in a boring fight. And the -115 looks cheap to me.
Two submission specialists fight when lightweight Canadian Mark Bocek (9-3) takes on former WEC star Ben "Smooth" Henderson (12-2). I think Henderson has the superior striking skills, and his two wins over Cowboy Cerrone showed me that he is "Gumby" when it comes to avoiding submissions. And that is Bocek's game. In what should be an action-packed battle with numerous ebb-and-flows, I think Henderson will do enough to win a close, maybe split, decision. Lay the -120 and enjoy the fight.
On the undercard, we have a few more interesting matchups. The following two fights can be seen tonight FREE on Spike TV. The rest of the preliminaries can be seen for FREE on the UFC's Faceback page.
If you like wrestling, you will like watching Jake Ellenberger (23-5) dismantle and control overmatched Canadian Sean Pierson. Ellenberger -200 wins by second round TKO.
If you have never seen a Diaz brother fight, tonight younger bro,' welterweight Nate (13-6) will be on display. This Compton street punk is a well-skilled Cesar Gracie submission specialist. His gangly, pawing, awkward-looking striking style, sets up his lethal jiu-jitsu game. And if you find yourself on the mat with a Diaz, you are in deep waters. A wise Rory MacDonald (10-1) shouldn't go there. Nate wins by triangle choke submission in the third round. Cashing at -110 is simply a bargain.
Canadian Jason "The Athlete" MacDonald (24-14) is recovering from a broken leg last time out. His skill set includes some dangerous submission holds, and tonight's opponent, Ryan Jensen (15-7) has lost five of his fights by submissions and is a dismal 2-5 in the UFC. The loser gets a pink slip. The winner fights on. Let's go with home cooking and take modest underdog MacDonald at +105 by third round armbar submission.
Two more submission specialists tangle when French Canadian Claude Patrick (13-1) takes on Daniel "Ninja" Roberts (12-1). I'll take Roberts all day long as a +130 underdog. A close decision is the call here.
Journeyman veterans Ivan Menjivar (21-8) and Charlie Valencia (12-6) will test their skills to see who can survive these shark infested waters. I like a determined, hungry-hobo-looking Valencia to bring home the bacon. His WEC losses were to the likes of Faber, Cruz, Torres, and Bowles, all top tier fighters. Pedigree and experience give this +160 underdog a shot. Valencia does enough to win a close decision.
Canadian John Makdessi (8-0) fights Kyle Watson (14-6-1) ... who? I'll pass.
Same with Pablo Garza and Canadian Yves Jabouin. No betting action there either.
So now let's figure out how to make some much-needed money from these thoughts ...
Let's see what we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $115 to win $368 on Jake Shields to submit GSP. Thank you, Cesar Gracie.
Let's lay $186 to win $40 on a Jose Aldo bridge jump. Look out below!
Let's lay $100 to win $280 on the Natural's swan song ... one more time, Randy!
Let's lay $92 to win $80 on a Brilz snooze fest.
Let's lay $96 to win $80 on Smooth Henderson in an action packed fight.
Let's lay $110 to win $100 on Nate Diaz and wish we had laid more ...
Let's lay $150 to win $75 on Jake Ellenberger in an easy one.
Let's lay $60 to win $63 on Jason MacDonald's recovery.
Let's lay $50 to win $65 on Ninja Roberts all day long.
Let's lay $40 to win $64 on Charlie Valencia.
Let's pass (no bets) on Watson/Makdessi and Garza/Jabouin
So we are all in risking $999 to win $1215. Lots of 'dogs, some big. I smell a big night!
Don't forget to give some of your winnings to your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights, I know I will.
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