Venue: Mandalay Bay (Las Vegas)
Date: February 5, 2011
The UFC Monster is in Las Vegas for the Super Bowl and will be in attendance at UFC 126 to watch one of my favorite fighters, Vitor Belfort, try to end Anderson "Spider" Silva's record 12th straight UFC win streak. Seven of those fights have been successful middleweight title defenses! Tomorrow, Belfort has five rounds to take the belt from the Spider.
Critics say that Belfort hasn't fought for almost a year and a half, and the former heavyweight and light heavyweight champion not only will have cage rust, but the weight cutting will leave him gassed early. Well, Belfort has ended a dozen fights in the first round, my friends, and the Spider will have his hands full with one of the fastest, most powerful strikers that he has ever faced. But, striking is the Spider's game, and many feel that Belfort's style plays right into the Spider's web. Bull charging may be fatal for Belfort, say the skeptics.
But Vitor is in his prime now. His speed is amazing, and he's a bigger, stronger, more powerful striker than Anderson. Both are Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts, though neither seem to ever go to the mat to show off that skill set. I will admit that I am betting with my heart here (generally, a bad idea), but I see Belfort taking Silva's belt away with a stunning first round KO proving that anyone can be beat! V-I-T-O-R …B-E-L-F-O-R-T will be the name coming from of the lips of ring announcer Bruce Buffer when this one is over. At +230 underdog odds, I couldn't be happier!
On paper, former UFC champions Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin, are about as even as you can get. What a fight this should be. Both are strikers, and both have solid ground games. Strategy and scoring points will be the crux of this battle. Unless either fighter can land a haymaker, and I doubt they will, this one will go the distance, three rounds of pure stalking. I believe that Franklin has a slightly more rounded game, and will eke out a close decision as a modest -155 favorite.
Jon "Bones" Jones has exploded on the UFC scene with his unorthodox style, spin kicking and throwing elbows from all angles. His wrestling is top drawer, but he will need that against former Arizona State AA, Ryan Bader. The undefeated Bader, like Jones, is getting better with each fight. Bader will try to control the fight, and get Jones to the ground to unleash his devastating ground-and-pound and cash as a big +250 underdog. It will be a show that I don't want to miss, and a great candidate for "Fight of the Night." I respect Jones, but at this price, the value lies with Bader. Bader wins a tough decision here.
Another tough and experienced wrestler, Jake Ellenberger, has the challenge of stopping an undefeated fighter, Eduardo Rocha, who specializes in submissions. With relentless aggression, Ellenberger will use his Octagon experience in schooling Rocha. I see the ref pulling Jake off the beaten carcass of Rocha midway through the second round. It's Ellenberger by TKO as a -260 favorite.
Making his UFC debut after being the former WEC champion, and once considered pound-for-pound one of the best fighters anywhere, Miguel Torres has now lost two of his last three fights. That will all change tonight, when the speedy, versatile Torres shows off his skills with powerful, accurate striking, setting up an armbar submission victory in the second round. The price is steep at -360, but worth the risk. Torres will once again be a factor in the title picture. His short journey begins tonight.
Now, let's take a look at the undercard.
"Kid" Yamamoto has been fighting in Japan, and had won 14 straight, mostly by KO, until he ran into the "baddest man on the planet," World champion Joe Warren, who upset him in the Bellator tournament last year. Warren is now putting his focus on winning an Olympic gold medal, and I wouldn't bet against him. Joe cashed for me in every fight last year. The "Kid" Yamamoto will show off his striking power again, as he makes quick work of "Mini-Mite" Deterious Johnson, a product of the TUF show. Yamamoto at -125 is too good to pass up.
Brit, Paul Taylor, is a kickfest king, putting constant pressure on his opponents. Gabe Ruediger is a seasoned veteran fighting for his UFC life. Game, but overmatched, I see Ruediger getting outscored here, and unless he can pull off a surprise submission, I'm afraid Taylor will have is hand raised at the end. Taylor at -190 wins this decision.
Kyle Kingsbury at -125 offers more experience and better value than his opponent, Romero. But only a small play is warranted here. Kingsbury by decision.
If you like wrestlers, you will love Mike Pierce. Pierce's UFC debut found him almost upsetting former WEC champion, Carlos "the Natural Born Killer" Condit. Pierce brings it in typical wrestling tradition, aggressive, relentless, and controlling. A second round beating will end this with Robertson's shoulder blades pinned to the mat. I'll lay the -275, and see you at the winner's window.
Chad Mendes is another undefeated, up-and-comer from WEC. In a fight full of action, he should have enough to get by the veteran Omigawa, who will offer tough resistance, before succumbing to a third round TKO. Mendes at -300 is the play.
In my BEST BET of the night, I see Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone at -275 outclassing Brit Paul Kelly on his feet, with pin-point strikes, before dragging him to the mat where he finishes him late in the first round with an impressive rear-naked choke. Another WEC veteran makes a successful UFC debut. Cerrone wants Cole Miller next.
So, that's it. Eleven fights, using two big 'dogs and a bunch of favorites. Let's take a look at the money management angle, and see if we can turn the fun into profit …
Let's lay $100 to win $230 on Vitor Belfort shocking the world!
Let's lay $77 to win $ 50 on Ace Franklin.
Let's lay $90 to win $225 on Ryan Bader.
Let's lay $104 to win $40 on Jake Ellenberger.
Let's lay $108 to win $30 on Miguel Torres.
Let's lay $50 to win $40 on "Kid" Yamamoto.
Let's lay $76 to win $40 on Paul Taylor.
Let's lay $25 to win $20 on Kyle Kingsbury.
Let's lay $110 to win $40 on Mike Pierce.
Let's lay $120 to win $40 on had Mendes.
Let's lay $140 to win $50 on "Cowboy" Cerrone.
In total, we are risking $1000 to win $ 805. Not bad, but we need one of the BIG 'DOGS (Belfort/Bader) to win! Hopefully both.
Don't forget to give some of your profits to your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
See you at the weigh-ins. Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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