Venue: Bell Centre (Montreal, Quebec, Canada)
Date: December 11, 2010
The UFC Monster is in Las Vegas to watch the action of tonight's UFC 124 card. Unfortunately, the fights are in Montreal. Oh well, I'll be surrounded by rabid fight fans anyway, and I look to add to my Vegas bankroll with some winners! So, let's take a look and see where the bookmakers have screwed up. Here is my condensed version of dissecting tonight's to find weaknesses in the betting line.
Tonight's main event features the Welterweight championship rematch between Canadian Georges St. Pierre and Josh Koscheck. GSP won the first fight by three-round decision. Tonight, despite the rabid hometown fight support, the MMA world will be shocked when Kos nails a first round KO punch, stunning the champ, and follows it up quickly with some vicious ground-and-pound to end it early. The betting line of +345 on Koscheck makes this one difficult to pass on! I'm also adding a prop wager on Koscheck getting the fastest KO of the night at odds of 17:1. I love GSP, but this one has upset written all over it!!!
Stephan Struve is a beanpole at 6'6" tall, and tonight finally fights someone his size. His opponent, the relative unknown, Sean McCorkle will have his hands full as Struve can probably submit him in any way he chooses. The public is betting Struve, as the betting line keeps moving upward. I got on at -150, a reasonable price. Struve by first-round submission.
Jim Miller brings his 18-2 record into his fight with undefeated Brazilian Charles Oliveira, 14-0. Miller's only two losses were to lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, and Gray Maynard, who fights for that belt on January 1. Each fighter specializes in submissions. Oliveira was good enough to get Efrain Escudero bumped from the UFC. He should be good enough to get by Miller. The -130 is a very fair price for the risk. Take Oliveira to stay unbeaten with a second round rear-naked choke submission.
Popular veteran, lightweight Joe "Daddy" Stevenson, has had 13 fights in the Octagon! He has been fighting MMA for over a decade with a 31-11 record. TUF show product Mac Danzig has shown a diverse fighting style, and is competitive in every fight he has been in. I think Stevenson's strong submission skill set will be enough to get the job done tonight. Experience and a guillotine choke spell victory for Stevenson at a steep -300 price tag.
Welterweight Thiago Alves is a weight-cutting beast. He is the biggest, and maybe baddest welterweight on the planet. His powerful punching dominates his repertoire, giving him little reason to go to the ground. His opponent, John Howard, is a well-rounded striker with an adequate ground game. But I see a second round TKO battering ending this one, as the Pit Bull sends me to the winner's window to cash at -300.
Now let's take a quick look at the intriguing undercard ...
Dustin Hazelett, 12-6 with 9 submissions, will look for another when he drops down to the lightweight to battle the very capable Mark Bocek, 8-3, who is no slouch on the mat, as well. Will Hazelett at 6'4" tall be able to handle the weight loss? That will be tonight's question. Bettors are betting that he can't. I'm betting that he can. Take Hazelett at even money odds that he wins. I'll call it an armbar submission in the second round.
The "other" Miller brother, Dan, 12-4 with eight submissions, has lost to Bisping, Maia, and Sonnen, but he is an adequate gatekeeper, who should have enough to get by Canadian veteran, Joe Doerksen, 46-13 with an incredible 33 submissions. Can you imagine having 60 mixed martial arts fights? Wow. How much wear-and-tear will that take on your aging body? At -260 I'll go with Miller's youth to win by decision.
Brazilian Ricardo Almeida, 12-4 with no KOs, is coming off an embarrassing loss to Matt Hughes, who somehow submitted him in the very first round with an anaconda choke. TJ Grant, 16-4 with 12 submissions, has never been knocked out, and that streak won't end tonight. This one will be settled on the ground in a submission clinic. I look for Almeida to be the better of the two, winning a decision at fair odds of -160.
Canadian Sean Pierson, 10-4, has won his last four fights by KO. Tonight he makes his UFC debut against Matt Riddle, whose 5-1 record is all in the Octagon. There is nothing like Octagon experience to quiet the hometown crowd. No Pierson KO tonight. Riddle at -285 wins the judge's decision.
Can another Canadian, Jesse Bongfeldt, 21-7 with 12 submissions, stop the next highly-touted Brazilian, Rafael Natal, 12-3 with 7 submissions? Perhaps. I'm going to take a chance that he does at underdog odds of +145. A close split decision wins this one.
Undefeated Canadian John Makdessi, 7-0 with 6 KOs, will get tested tonight by Pat Audinwood, 9-1-1, who recently lost his first fight to the cagey Thiago Tavares. In another upset, let's stay with home cookin' and take Makdessi at underdog odds of +120.
Now, let's take a look at how to spread our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll to maximize our chances of having a profitable night ...
Let's lay $50 to win $170 on Koscheck shocking the MMA world.
Let's lay $ 90 to win $60 on Struve.
Let's lay $104 to win $80 on Oliveira.
Let's lay $90 to win $30 on Jo "Daddy" Stevenson.
Let's lay $159 to win $60 on Thiago "Pit Bull" Alves.
Let's lay $80 to win $80 on Dustin Hazelett.
Let's lay $104 to win $40 on Dan Miller.
Let's lay $128 to win $80 on Ricardo Almeida.
Let's lay $114 to win $40 on Matt Riddle.
Let's lay $40 to win $58 on Jesse Bongfeldt.
Let's lay $40 to win $48 on Jon Makdessi.
In total, we are risking $999 to win $746. Let's git 'er done!
And, don't forget to donate some of your winnings to your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born!
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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