Venue: Conseco Fieldhouse (Indianapolis, Indiana)
Date: September 25, 2010
Winning $4 on last UFC 118's card may have saved the UFC Monster from getting his "pink slip" from InterMat's senior management team. I had the audacity to go against both Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar, two great wrestlers who won as underdogs, after being advised that I may be on the wrong side of each wager. Betting against wrestlers can be hazardous to your wallet. Picking against them on a wrestling site may be hazardous to your employment! But a modest profit and a slap on the hand has apparently saved my job! So, please read on ...
In the first UFC ever in the state of Indiana, 11 fights are scheduled, but with no titles on the line. That means that all fights are just three rounds, and with two fights scheduled for FREE on Spike TV, quick finishes on the main card will lead to more viewing of the interesting undercard. Tonight's featured match pits former heavyweight champion Frank Mir against legendary striker Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic. Let's get the ball rolling and pick some winners, as we try to stay ahead of the bookmaker's traps and build our bankroll.
Frank Mir is a rare heavyweight who not only has solid striking, but few big men have the submission arsenal that he does. Cro Cop is a weather-beaten athlete whose better days are behind him. He has struggled to finish his opponents, and it is unlikely that he will catch Mir napping. It is more likely that Mir will stand and trade punches until the opportunity to grab Cro Cop presents itself. And, once it does, Mir will lock up a painful kimura and a broken arm will end this one. Lay the –225 on Mir. Cro Cop's broken arm wins Frank the submission of the night.
Light heavyweight Ryan Bader, former Arizona State All-American wrestler, is unbeaten in his MMA career. Strangely, he has become an over-powering striker who throws fists until he overwhelms you with his ground-n-pound. But that strategy will be disastrous against Rogerio Nogueira, Minotauro's younger brother. While Bader's career is on the rise, Nogueira's is on the downside. I'm not sure it is wise to go to the mat with a Nogueira, but my guess is that's what Bader will do. Proof of his dominance will soon be evident as the ref pulls Darth off the battered Brazilian. Bader –165 is the play here.
Shawn "Muscle Shark" Sherk once dominated the lightweight division. But injuries, age, and a change in fighting styles (from dominant wrestler to short-armed boxer) have taken its toll on Sherk's career. His 32-4-1 record is still awesome, but a battle with undefeated, up-and-comer Evan Dunham, a Couture protégé, is not a good match-up for him. A long layoff won't help, and Dunham's huge reach advantage will spell doom. A decisive decision will justify the –240 risk.
Once upon a time, Matt Serra was the welterweight champion. And, once upon a time, about four years ago, he fought tonight's opponent, Chris "Lights Out" Lytle in the The Ultimate Fighter 4 show. He won a controversial decision, and Lytle is delighted to get the opportunity to redeem himself in front of his hometown fans. The brash East Coaster Serra will thrive as a distinct underdog. Though known for his relentless attacks and heavy hands, surprisingly Lytle wins most of his fights by submission or decision. And, Matt Serra will not get submitted. His Renzo Gracie black belt was the first to be awarded to an American. I see this as the Fight of the Night with back-and-forth action, and both fighters showing their guts and letting their hearts hang out. Serra wins a decision, if he doesn't knock him out. Take Serra and grab the +120 underdog odds.
If the above fight isn't the F-O-N, this one will be. Melvin "The Young Assassin" Guillard is a beast who has gotten better while training with Greg Jackson. His striking is crisp and his focus is renewed. But Jeremy Stephens has lead in his paws. Stephens is a better wrestler ... though he rarely uses that skill set. He prefers a powerful overhand right to do his speaking. This one should be toe-to-toe bomb throwing. Guillard has been known to gas (see Diaz fight), and that will be his downfall here. A thundering right-left-right combo will end this late in the second round. Another 'dog cashes! Let's try Stephens with a generous +140 price tag. This is KO of the night.
Now let's take a quick look at the intriguing undercard ...
You can see the following two fights FREE on Spike TV. Heavyweights Matt "Meat" Mitrione and Joey "Mexicutioner" Beltran will try to prove whose got the better blasting power. Don't look for much mat action here. Mitrione will be the one landing the lucky punch. He wins and cashes at –140.
C.B. "The Doberman" Dollaway is another former ASU standout who has shown an erratic career inside the Octagon. His task of putting away Canadian journeyman Joe Doerksen won't be easy. Doerksen is a submission artist whose experience makes him very dangerous. Dollaway has a tendency to be overaggressive, and extending arms on a grounded opponent will lead to disaster. Hopefully Dollaway will know that and this will end with another TKO by the Doberman. Lay the –295.
Julio Paulino has already beaten Terry Martin and Yundt, two UFC guys. While T.J. Grant looked bad against Johny Hendricks. Grant may be better skilled, but Paulino will have his hand raised when this one is over. Take the +140.
I like Waylon Lowe at –120 to outwrestle Steve Lopez and finish him in the second.
Thiago Tavares has some of the best jits around and has fought often in the UFC. Laying –300 on him to beat an inexperienced, small venue fighter like Pat Audinwood is a gift. Tavares chokes him out in the first round.
In a circus sideshow, heavyweight 5-10" Mark Hunt, who hasn't won a fight in over four years, takes on a 6-7 300-pound giant in Sean McCorkle, who hasn't fought outside of Indianapolis. But guess whose beaten Hunt? Josh Barnett, Gegard Mousasi, Alistar Overeem, Melvin Manhoef, and Fedor Emelianenko. My God. E'nuff said. I'll take my chances on him and lay the –235 juice. First round KO.
So let's see what we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $225 to win $100 on Frank Mir to finish Mirko with submission of the night.
Let's lay $99 to win $60 on Ryan Bader to keep his streak alive.
Let's lay $144 to win $60 on Evan Dunham over the "Muscle Shark."
Let's lay $70 to win $84 on Matt Serra in the fight of the night against Lytle.
Let's lay $70 to win $98 on Jeremy Stephens' haymaker KO of the night.
Let's lay $49 to win $35 on Meat Mitrione's fists.
Let's lay $120 to win $40 on C.B. Dollaway to dominate.
Let's lay $30 to win $42 on Paulino's mild upset over T.J. Grant.
Let's lay $60 to win $27 on Hunt's knockout power.
Let's lay $43 to win $40 on Lowe's powerful ground-n-pound.
Let's lay $90 to win $30 on Thiago Tavares showing off his jits.
OK, so in total, we are risking $1000 to win $616. Let's do it!
Don't forget to donate part of your profits to your local youth wrestling program where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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