Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena (Las Vegas)
Date: July 3, 2010
The UFC Monster is the only man on the planet, outside of Brazil, that wagered his hard-earned cash on Fabricio Werdum defeating Fedor Emelianenko as a 5:1 underdog! I also wagered on a submission victory at +635 odds. So, when Werdum locked in a triangle choke and combined it with a vicious armbar, the fight ended in 69 seconds and the "World's Greatest" Heavyweight MMA fighter was dethroned! That now makes Saturday night's heavyweight championship fight between Brock Lesnar (4-1) and Shane Carwin (12-0) a HUGE event, as the winner will be crowned the BEST heavyweight in the world ... and Fedor will soon be a distant memory.
The betting public has pounded their action on Shane Carwin. Opening as a -200 favorite (you bet $2 to win $1), Lesnar is now just -150. This fight was originally scheduled for last November, but a near-death bout with verticulitas almost put Brock in his grave. Carwin went on to defeat interim champ Frank Mir … and now the big battle is on. Carwin, for those who haven't heard, has won ALL his fights in the very first round, by both KOs and submissions. The former two-time Division II wrestling champ has been awesome. But Lesnar is a beast. The former Gopher NCAA champ has lightning quick takedowns, and fists like a sledgehammer. And this is how it will end.
Carwin will have a few good shots a unloading his arsenal of heavy hands, but once Lesnar gets a hold of Carwin and brings him to the mat, this one will end quickly. A brutal ground-and-pound display will end this affair. Take Lesnar and lay the -150 odds.
Middleweight Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1 with 2 no contests) was supposed to fight Wanderlei Silva, but an injury to Silva put Chris "The Crippler" Leben (20-6) into the fight as a late replacement. Surprisingly, Leben fought (and won) just two weeks ago, beating Aaron Simpson in a big upset. Akiyama wanted Silva. Leben just wants to fight.
I don't believe that Leben will have enough left in the tank to pull this one off. I see value in a better fighter, more rested, with a fighting style that doesn't match up well for Leben.
This one will end in the second round with a rear-naked choke submission by Akiyama, the -200 favorite.
Welterweights Chris "Lights Out" Lytle (38-17-4) and seasoned veteran Matt Brown (13-8) will go toe-to-toe in a slugfest. These two met three years ago with Lytle winning by submission. Despite nearly 60 fights, Lytle has yet to be submitted! And Brown has yet to be KO'd. Interesting. I see the value in Brown at +190, a decent underdog to get his revenge. Brown by convincing decision.
And speaking of revenge, light heavyweight Stephan "American Psycho" Bonnar (14-7) got screwed by a bad referee's decision the last time he fought Krzysztof "The Polish Experiment" Soszynski (23-10-1). An inadvertent head butt by Soszynski caused a bloody stoppage to the fight, and the unaware referee declared Bonnar the loser. The judges didn't even get their say. That made three straight losses for Bonnar, who has fought injuries and the Jon Jones launching, to find himself on the verge of UFC extinction. He needs to win badly. And he will. Why he is a +190 underdog is beyond me. This is my underdog POD. Bonnar will leave it all in the cage, believe me. He will battle and brawl his way to a sweet unanimous decision victory. You can take that to the bank!
Rounding out the main card will be an interesting matchup between lightweights George Sotiropoulos (12-3) and Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino (21-4), both submission specialists and both on winning streaks of six and four respectively. There will be no knockout here. Who will get submitted first? Not George. His lanky frame and mastery of the "rubber guard" makes him lethal to all. Pellegrino won't go easy, and his transitioning rolls will be interesting. But in the end, we will most likely see George Jits in a pretzel position with Batman's face turning blue. Sotiropoulus at -170 cashes the ticket here.
Now let's take a peek at the undercard. You can see the next two fights FREE on Spike TV.
Heavyweight sluggers Brendan "The Hybrid" Schaub (6-1) and Brock Lesnar's training partner, Chris "The Crowbar" Tuchscherer, will stand and strike at each other to see who is the last man standing. I think that man will be the better athlete, Bhrendan Schaub, who will land a stunning first round KO of the slower Crowbar. Overpriced maybe at -300, I still think Schaub is the right side to be on here.
Who's Ricardo Romero? He's a 10-1 light heavyweight who has fought all 11 of his fights in Atlantic City for the Ring of Combat group! His opponent, Seth Petruzelli (14-5), is best known for his stunning upset (at the time) of Kimbo Slice. Seth was a last-minute replacement for the legendary Ken Shamrock. Petruzelli won within seconds with a stunning KO victory over the thick-bearded one. I'll roll with the UFC experience here and take Petruzelli as a generous +160 underdog. A second round submission ends this one.
Middleweight Goran Reljic was unbeaten at 8-0 when he got injured. After a year off for recovery, he looked lethargic losing to C.B. Dollaway. Kendall "Da Spyder" Grove is an unorthodox, lanky striker with amazing submission skills. With his long-range reach advantage and constant kicks, Grove should be able to keep Reljic at bay. I'm looking for a quick, surprise submission, a triangle choke maybe, to end this. Why the bookies have made Grove a modest +135 underdog is a mystery to me. But I'll grab the value here and hope to cash as predicted.
A strong wrestler, middleweight Gerald "Hurricane" Harris (15-2) has never been submitted. His opponent Dave Branch (6-0) is a Renzo Gracie submission student who may not have enough experience to get the job done here. I'll lay the -260 on Harris.
Welterweight Forrest "The Meat Clever" Petz (24-7) has been around forever. He even has a win over Dan Hardy on his resume! But that won't be enough to stop up-and-coming Daniel "Ninja" Roberts (9-1), who amazingly fought Anthony Macias this year. Macias is an early UFC pioneer who fought in UFC 4, losing to Dan Severn 16 years ago! This is a matchup of fighters going in opposite directions. The younger, more athletic Roberts will cash here with a jolting first round KO. Lay the -180.
Every UFC undercard has two heavyweights stacked face-to-face with haymakers flying. Tonight's qualifier pits undefeated Joe Madsen (5-0) against undefeated Karlos Vemola (7-0). Anything can happen, but Madsen at +150 offers the better value. A first round KO stops it.
That's it. Six favorites and five underdogs make up our winning ticket. Let's see how we can do with our fictitious $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $165 to win $110 on Brock Lesnar dominance.
Let's lay $100 to win $190 on Stephan Bonnar's survival tour.
Let's lay $80 to win $40 on Akiyama over a gassed Leben.
Let's lay $102 to win $60 on Sotiropoulus' rubber guard.
Let's lay $80 to win $152 on a game Matt Brown to win a decision.
Let's lay $90 to win $30 on a Brendan Schaub bridge-jump.
Let's lay $40 to win $64 on Petruzelli.
Let's lay $80 to win $108 on da "fake" Spyder. (Anderson Silva's the real one.)
Let's lay $130 to win $50 on Gerald Harris's ground and pound.
Let's lay $ 90 to win $50 on Ninja Roberts.
Let's lay $40 to win $60 on a Joe Madsen punch and a hunch.
In all, we are risking $997 to win $914. Not bad. Let's leave the three dollars as a tip to the cocktail waitress. And, don't forget to share your profits with your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will. I'll see you at the winner's window!
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