Venue: Bell Centre (Montreal, Quebec, Canada)
Date: May 8, 2010
Last Saturday, the UFC Monster used an "impressive multi-faceted wagering assault" on the Kentucky Derby, nailing the winner, Super Saver, early at odds of 16:1, and hitting BOTH the $2 exacta (paying $154) and the $2 trifecta (paying $2337.40). I made so much money that I had to sign IRS paperwork to declare the income! Now, let's see if I can keep that roll going ... The UFC is my real game.
The UFC returns to Canada tonight for the much-anticipated rematch for the light heavyweight championship between undefeated Lyota "Dragon" Machida (16-0) and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-4). Most UFC fans thought Rua should have won a close decision the last time they met, but you have to beat a champion to be the champion, and the judges saw it otherwise. In a card stacked full of Canadian fighters, tonight's card also offers some great betting opportunities to pad your bankroll, and stay ahead of a tight economy. The UFC Monster's mission is to guide InterMat readers towards valued wagers, with the expectation of earning additional dollars, that could be re-invested in purchasing InterMat Platinum subscriptions for friends and family alike. Current odds for all UFC fights can be found at www.bestfightodds.com. They do a great job of putting the juice out there. I do a great job of pinning the bookmaker's back to the mat!
You can check out my record in the archives of this Web site. I do quite well in making money betting mixed martial arts affairs. In UFC 112 I won money for readers despite having more losers than winners! It's in the value of the betting line.
So let's take a look at tonight's main card.
Nobody fights like Lyota Machida. He is an unorthodox karate (yes, karate) fighter who makes most opponents look inept and awkward, due to his strange striking angles and great counter-punching ability. He measures his opponent carefully, and, like a cobra snake, waits for that one moment to strike. And, when he does, it's lights out. Ask previously-undefeated Thiago Silva or previously undefeated Rashad Evans. They both went to sleep from a vicious Machida strike. His victim list includes Tito Ortiz, B.J. Penn, and Rich Franklin. Wow. Sokoudjou had no chance.
And, now enter the legendary Shogun from Pride. Since '03 he has only lost to Mark Coleman because of a broken arm, a weird, unexpected submission to Forrest Griffin, and the controversial decision loss to Machida. That's it. OMG. This could be the fight of the night! But I still like Machida here. He will have absorbed each and every move from the last fight. He will know and practice what he needs to do to win this one. And, neither fighter will want to leave it again in the hands of the judges. That I know. Take Machida and lay the -190, as he keeps his belt with a convincing third-round KO.
Josh Koscheck (16-4) vs. British welterweight Paul Daley (23-8-2). The winner gets Georges St. Pierre for a title shot. GSP has already schooled Kos. And the last British slugger (Hardy) to fight GSP got wasted. But this fight has a lot at stake. Without a doubt, Koscheck is one of the very best wrestlers in the UFC. His pile-driving shots drive his opponents across the cage, and his striking power has gotten better and better with each fight. But that's the problem here. Koscheck likes to bang, and he has trouble staying on message (wrestling) when he fights those who like to stand and pound away. And Paul Daley is one of those beasts! He has cremated his only two UFC opponents in lightning fashion with devastating KOs.
Against Anthony Jackson, Kos took it to the mat when he felt over-matched by AJ's wild swinging power. That's what he needs to do here. But he will be on the clock. If this one goes to the mat, it's an easy Koscheck victory. But, if they go toe-to-toe, it will be Daley as a 'dog that cashes my ticket. I'll take my chances because I like the price. Daley at +220 is my play here. The winner will also be named by Dana White, as the coach for one of the teams for next season's Ultimate Fighter show.
If you like banging, you will love Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout's (16-5-1) fight against Jeremy "Lil' Heathen" Stephens (17-5). These lightweights won't see the mat. Their abilities lie in their punching power. Neither has ever been knocked out! That's amazing to me. Half of their fights go to a decision, and this may be another. I like Scott Casber's boy here, Jeremy Stephens. His uppercut power is awesome and Stout likes to fight at close quarters. The price is right. Lil' Heathen gets +170 from the oddsmakers. I'll take my chances. If this one doesn't go the distance, I'll call it Stephens with a 2nd round KO.
Canadian middleweight Patrick "the Predator" Cote (14-5) has recovered from his serious knee injury that made him look so feeble against Anderson "the Spider" Silva last time out. Tonight he takes on Mississippi's Alan "the Talent" Belcher (14-5). Tho' Cote calls himself a Brazilian Jiu-jitsu specialist, most of his wins have come by KO. Belcher is what we call a UFC gate-keeper, a fighter good enough to win most fights, but not good enough to beat the elite. Cote's a good fighter, not an elite. Belcher at -160 wins here with a rear-naked choke submission in the second round.
Does anyone really care about Kimbo Slice (4-1)? Why is he on the main card? For money, of course. Dana wants to appeal to everyone out there, willing to pay $50 for a show. After an embarrassing introduction to the sport, Kimbo is now taking it seriously, and has actually (supposedly) learned some technique! Well, we'll see. His hand-picked opponent Matt Mitrione has had one MMA fight, a KO win. Oh my. While my brain says "pass," my gut tells me that there is a method to Dana's madness, and that he wants Kimbo to bring along all his massive fan base as he starts to climb the heavyweight ladder in search of Brock Lesnar … hehehe. Good luck with that!
The public is betting against Kimbo, as late money appears to be coming in on Mitrione. But I will (for one night only) be in Kimbo's corner, and will accept his puncher's chance at EVEN money. Kimbo puts Mitrione asleep in the first round, sending me to the winner's window again!
… and now let's take a quick look at the preliminaries:
Canadian journeyman, Joe Doerksen (39-12) has had over 50 MMA fights! Can you imagine what his body feels like? He will take on middleweight Tom "Filthy" Lawlor
(6-2), who has been made the prohibitive favorite at -500 (you lay $5 to win $1). I know Doerksen may be yesterday's news, but getting +440 on him warrants a wager on my part. Of his 39 wins, 32 have come by submission! I'm banking on him having just one more chokehold left in his arsenal as he puts Filthy away in the third.
Welterweight Marcus "the Irish hand Grenade" Davis (15-3) should have little trouble putting away Canadian Jonathan "the Road Warrior" Goulet (22-10-1). At -420 there is little value there, but I see little risk, as well. Take Davis and lay the juice. A first round KO may earn him KO of the night, and a $60,000 bonus from Dana!
Undefeated, former Oklahoma State two-time NCAA wrestling champ Johny Hendricks (7-0) just gets better and better each time out. Nobody will outwrestle him, and his punching power and technique is awesome. His relentless, rapid upper-cuts are lethal. His opponent, T.J. Grant (15-3), another Canadian, will try to end Hendo's streak with some strong submission skills that have carried his young career so far. A dozen of his 15 wins have come by submission. But does anyone see Johny Hendricks getting submitted? Not me. I'm laying -370 on Hendo, da Man! Hendo wins a unanimous decision.
Joey "The Mexecutioner" Beltran (11-3) has a great nickname. He also embarrassed Rolles Gracie last time out in Vegas. I was there. Tonight, he fights Tim "The Tharshing Machine" Hague (10-3), who has lost his last two in the Octagon, Three strikes and you're out with a pink slip from Dana. For those who like to see heavyweights push each other around, this one is for you. Not me. I'll close my eyes and hope that the bigger bully wins here. Desperation means something in sports. It means I'm headed to the winner's window on Hague laying the -240. He may get a submission. He may get a KO. I think he gets the judge's now.
Yet, another Canadian, journeyman gate-keeper, Jason MacDonald (22-12), will try to slow down John Salter's (4-1) young career tonight. Experience counts. I like MacDonald at a reasonable -160 to submit Salter in the third round with a patented rear-naked choke.
King of the Cage (KOC) veteran, welterweight Mike Guymon (12-3-1), makes his UFC debut tonight against neck-cranking Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida (11-4). At -260, I still think the value lies with Yoshida. He has octagon experience and his submission skills should carry him to victory here. His losses have been to powerful strikers, of class to which Guymon doesn't fit. Take Yoshida to win by first round triangle choke. This will be the submission of the night, as well.
So that's it. I have action on all eleven (11) fights.
Let's take a look at how we should spread our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll …
Let's lay $180 to win $100 on Lyota Machida to retain his belt.
Let's lay $75 to win $165 on Paul Daley to upset Koscheck.
Let's lay $70 to win $119 on Jeremy Stephens to KO Sam Stout.
Let's lay $55 to win $50 on Alan Belcher.
Let's lay $100 to win $100 on street punk, Kimbo Slice.
Let's lay $25 to win $110 on Joe Doerksen to squeeze one more win out.
Let's lay $126 to win $30 on Marcus Davis.
Let's lay $111 to win $30 on Johny Hendricks to do it again!
Let's lay $72 to win $30 on Tim Hague.
Let's lay $ 80 to win $50 on Jason MacDonald.
Let's lay $104 to win $40 on Yoshida's neck cranks.
In total, we are risking $998 to win $824. Let's give the $2 tip to the cocktail waitress.
Let's not forget to share your winnings in support of your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born!
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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