Venue: Acer Arena (Sydney, Australia)
Date: February 20, 2010
For the first time ever the explosive-growing UFC goes "down under" to Australia for some more worldwide exposure. Unfortunately, a late shoulder injury to Elvis "King of Rock and Rumble" Sinosic caused his fight with fellow Australian Chris Haseman to be cancelled. In addition to that, main card participant, Ben Rothwell, became ill, and Anthony "The Hippo" Perosh is a late (two days before the fight!) substitute to fight Mirko "Cro-Cop" Filopovic, who is desperately trying to keep his UFC career alive. There is no late betting line on that fight now, so we are down to nine (9) fights, with only eight (8) betting opportunities. This offers a real challenge.
In addition to that, I find tonight's card one of the most balanced ever, seeing many fights as "about even," so I have a strong UNDERDOG lean to my plays, and this can mean additional "risk" of capital. So, for those feint of heart, perhaps tonight's action should be watched from a distance away from the bookie's windows. If favorites roll, I will be getting rocked. But that being said, great athletes often perform best when not feeling well. Perhaps, my uneasiness with my own selections will be indicative of such a performance? I guess we will soon find out.
Tonight's main event has the young undefeated Arizona State wrestling stud Cain Velasquez (7-0-0) taking on a legend of jiu-jitsu submissions Antonio "Minotauro" Nogueira (32-5-1 with 1 NC). Nogueira's lost only three times in the last seven years to guys named Mir, Barnett and Fedor! Bookmakers gave Cain little chance of winning when they opened him at a +190 'dog. I jumped on him early, but so did the betting oublic, and now today Cain is favored to pull the "upset" and you will lay at least –120 to take youth over experience. I respect Nogueira's history and ability to take a lickin'and keep on tickin', but I think Cain will be too quick, too strong, and too brutal with his punches to see this getting into the second round. Take Velasquez @ –120 to win by first round TKO.
Another Pride and UFC legend, middle-weight Wanderlei "The Ax Murderer" Silva (32-10-1, with 1 NC) is also trying to stay in the fish tank when he takes on the brash Brit, Michael "The Count" Bisping (19-2-0). In any other time in history, I would be all over Wanderlei to pummel Bisping, but today's Ax Murderer has a dull blade, losing five of his last six fights. Think about that. And, Wanderlei's only win was over an erratic Keith Jardine. I don't generally bet on Bisping, tho' I had him in his last victory, but I'm taking my chances on his slight underdog odds here, too. I'll grab the +120 that Bisping stays his distance and out-points a frustrated Silva, as the judges award him the decision and I head to the winner's window!
Speaking of light-heavyweight Keith Jardine (14-7-1), another Arizona State alum, Ryan "Darth" Bader (11-0-0) will test his skills against the "Dean of Mean" in a fight much-needed by Jardine, who has lost his last two and three-out-of-four! A hungry fight is a dangerous fighter, and Jardine's quick leg kicks can keep an opponent at bay. But he has also been know to get steam-rolled, and Bader's aggressive takedowns and brute strength could quickly find Jardine fighting from his back. Eating elbows and fists is no remedy for breaking a losing streak. I'll lay the –155 with Bader and hope for the best.
Lightweight Joe "Daddy" Stevenson (36-10-0) has been crushing opponents since joining Greg Jackson's camp. That's a familiar story. His opponent, George Sotiropoulos (11-2) is 4-0 in the UFC and has been submitting opponents repeatedly. But does he have enough takedown defense and strength to counter with Stevenson? I doubt it. But I've seen many a time when a lankier fighter can transition into some funky submission move and end it in a heartbeat. So while only 20% of voting UFC fans give George a chance of winning, I'll throw my chip on his +210 odds, and hope that Sotiropoulos is the real deal and finds a way to put that armbar submission on Daddy midway through the fight.
With Cro-Cop's fight off the board and one preliminary fight cancelled, we are down to just four (4) betting opportunities left. And, as I said earlier, I find tonight's card difficult to pick winners from, and I see most fights as being very competitive, so with that strategy in place, I will be blanketing the four remaining UNDERDOGS, and hoping to win at least two of the four fights, to show a profit. And, I think all four 'dogs could win, so why not? Let's look at the preliminary fights:
Light heavyweight Stephan "American Psycho" Bonnar (14-6-0) hasn't looked good for quite awhile. Nagging injuries and age may be taking their toll on his career. Destroyed by Bones Jones and lacking a good effort against Mark Coleman, Bonnar's UFC career is at the end of the plank. That's what makes him so dangerous against a slugger like Krzysztof "The Polish Experiment" Soszynski (19-10-1). Soszynski had won six in a row, mostly by his deadly kimura submission, before losing a close decision to Barndon Vera. The bookies are giving you +155 if you want to put your faith in Bonnar. I will take the bait, and hope that he has enough left in the tank to earn a decision over a bright, rising star. Maybe another re-match with Forrest is in the making?
Mirko Cro-Cop's training partner, light-heavyweight Croatian Igor Pokrajac (21-6-0) must know what it's like to get kicked in the head. That's probably a good thing when he takes on Australian, James Te Huna (13-4-0), a relative unknown who has been taking people's heads off with early round TKO's. Strike, strike, strike ... pow, pow, pow ... should be the sounds of this one. Then, "thud". Someone goes down, but who? The Big Tuna, I hope. I'll give Pokrajac one last shot. Let's take him @ +150.
Welterweight Chris "Lights Out" Lytle (37-17-4) is an entertaining and highly energetic fighter that brings it and brings it and brings it. Though known for his knock-out power, Chris surprisingly wins most of his fights by submission, or decision. He is currently on a W-L-W-L-W-L-W sequence. Tonight he is scheduled to (L)ose. His opponent is a younger Brian Foster (15-4-0), who surprised the UFC world with a shocking upset of Brock Larson. Foster was able to outwrestle and outwork his opponent until he scored a ground-and-pound victory. With "only" four years of experience, Foster will be somewhat disadvantaged against Lytle's 11 years in the business, but youth has its advantages, and on a night where there is much passing of the torch, I'll stick with the younger Foster @ +140 to "git 'er done!" Lytle has NEVER been submitted, but he will lose a close decision here.
... and finally, yet another ASU alumni, light-heavyweight CB "The Doberman" Dollaway (10-3-0) will try to show his advanced skills when he takes on undefeated Croatian striker, Goran Reljic (8-0-0), who hasn't fought in two years due to serious back injuries! Dollaway uses his superior wrestling skills to try to mount his opponent and end it with some decent ground-and-pound. But his submission defense and skills are marginal, and many skeptics think he is not advancing fast enough. But offering up Dollaway @ +200 underdog odds against an athlete who hasn't fought for two years? I like those odds. I hope that "ring rust" is the theme of this affair, as I hope to cash for greater than my risk if all goes as planned.
OK, so that's it. Let's now take a look at how we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll ...
Let's lay $180 to win $150 on Cain Velasquez to "upset" Minotauro Nogueira.
Let's lay $100 to win $120 on Bisping to end Wanderlei's UFC career.
Let's lay $100 to win $210 on George Sotiropoulos to shock Joe Stevenson.
Let's lay $217 to win $140 on Ryan Bader over the bounty hunter.
Let's lay $100 to win $155 on Stephan Bonnar to survive to fight another day.
Let's lay $100 to win $150 on Pokrajac to make Mirko proud.
Let's lay $100 to win $140 on Brian Foster to tag Chris Lytle.
Let's lay $100 to win $200 on CB Dollaway to get back on track.
No bets on Cro-Cop vs. Anthony Perosh.
In total, we are risking $997 to try and win $1265. Don't forget to give some of your winnings to your local youth wrestling programs, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Good luck and enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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