Venue: Mandalay Bay, (Las Vegas, NV)
Date: February 6, 2010
The UFC Monster is in Las Vegas and will be in attendance for this epic event, as two UFC Hall-of-Fame light heavyweights, Randy Couture (17-10) and Mark Coleman (16-9), both on the downside of their careers, finally take to the Octagon in a fight that was originally scheduled for UFC 17!!! This three round main event pits two of wrestling's legendary warriors. Coleman is the Godfather of “ground-and-pound," while Couture has defied the aging process, remaining competitive against many athletes younger, quicker, stronger, and more diverse than his skill set. But Randy has made a career of outwrestling and outworking his opponents, controlling their bodies and taking them out of their game. With extremely strong takedown defense, Couture prefers to implement his “dirty boxing” against the cage, wearing down his opponents. This match features a relentless cardio machine against a historic gasser, whose tank often runs on empty as the fight wears on. Similar styles, and an interesting match-up, but the heavy favorite, Couture, should win this by a convincing decision. Lay the -400. Only a stunning knockout will save Coleman, and that's not going to happen!
Nate “The Great” Marquardt (32-8-2) is on a mission to get another title shot at middleweight Anderson Silva with a win here against another strong wrestler, Chael Sonnen (25-10-1). Marquardt is coming off a stunning first round KO of Damien Maia, and has looked better with each fight he takes. Sonnen is a master of takedowns, but that will be easier said than done against Marquardt. With a deep set of tools, there are many ways for Marquardt to win this fight, and few for Sonnen. After a tentative feeling out process in the first round, I expect Nate to impose his will on Sonnen and win with a second round submission. Again, lay the big number (-375) and head to the winner's window to cash!
There is not a better jui-jitsu expert in the middleweight division than Damien Maia (11-1). His world class jits is far superior to his opponent tonight, Dan Miller (11-2).
Opening at a bargain price of -220, Maia has been bet strongly by the public, driving the line to over -500 in most sportsbooks. I bet him early and again at -340 this week at the Venetian in Las Vegas. Only a knockout will save Miller in this battle. And, while that may happen, I think it more likely that Maia will take this to the ground, where he will quickly submit Miller with a triangle choke in the very first round. For those who haven't watched Maia fight, it is worth your effort to do so. Miller will be game, but overmatched here. Lay the juice.
In yet another battle of grizzled veterans, Matt "The Terror” Serra (16-6, with a win over GSP!), takes on Frank “Twinkle Toes” Trigg (19-7) in an interesting matchup of welterweights. Serra is short and compact, with the ability to tumble on the mat with transitioning moves, while Trigg is strong on his feet and has ample wrestling and submission skills to make this a close fight. I think it will go to the judge's scorecards, with Serra -135 winning a split decision. That would leave Trigg at 0-2 in his UFC return. Three strikes and you're out in Dana White's world.
Mike “Quick” Swick (14-3) is a substitute for his injured training partner, Josh Koschek, who was hoping for revenge against Brazilian Paulo Thiago (12-1) in yet another welterweight fight. Thiago is coming off a win against Jacob Volkmann, while Swick was shocked and beaten by British bully Dan Hardy, whose reward is a title shot against Georges St. Pierre. Swick likes to make quick work of his opponents by stunning knockouts with his long range missiles. Thiago is a strong submitter, who baits his opponents to the ground with enough of a standing game to make it interesting. In an interesting betting pattern, Swick opened as an over-priced -360 favorite, but now offers value at -200. I like his focus, and expect a knockout to end this one. Swick makes it a clean sweep of favorites to close out the main card.
On the undercard, there are six fights, including two on Spike TV. Let's see if we can find a few underdogs somewhere?
Mac Danzig (19-7) is a lightweight who once was considered the next best thing on the MMA scene. Unfortunately, he has struggled to match his reputation, and finds himself battling for his UFC career here. He knows it ... and capable Justin Buchholz (9-4) could provide his salvation. Not that Buchholz isn't dangerous, but Danzig has much to prove here, but at -360, I'll pass.
Lightweight Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard (41-9-3 with I no contest) is no longer young. But his well-built physique is enough to grab your attention. His opponent is relatively unknown Rony's Torres (14-1). At +110 Torres has a decent chance of winning this by late round submission. I'll call it a rear-naked choke in the third round that ends Guillard's night.
In another lightweight match-up, highly touted Phillipe “The Filipino Assassin”Nover (6-2-1) will try to show-off his jiu-jitsu submission skills as he takes on journeyman slugger, Rob “The Saint” Emerson (10-8). I'm not sure why Emerson gets so many UFC fights with a barely .500 record, but I know Nover will have to win this one or he will be sent packing. Late money is coming in on him, but slight underdog odds of +105 are still available in cyberspace. I'll give Nover another try based on the odds, and his need to win. A second round triangle choke will end this one.
Light heavyweight and ex-Marine Brian Stann (8-2) likes to stand and bang. A vicious puncher, he will take on relative newcomer, and former NCAA wrestling champion Phil Davis (4-0) from Penn State. Despite his inexperience, Davis has been made the -190 (or more) favorite here. Why? Because oddsmakers think that his wrestling skills will allow him to avoid the knockout and take it to the mat for a submission. I'll bite. I like this role playing, wrestler against puncher. I'll follow Davis to the winner's window.
Two big heavyweights, Tim “The Thrashing Machine” Hague (10-2) and Chris “The Crowbar” Tuchscherer (17-2 with one no contest), are on the card to go toe-to-toe until one drops. UFC fans love this type of action. Either one could land the blow that ends it, but my money will be on Tuchscherer at a reasonable -170.
The growth of MMA fighting is in part due to the Brazilian influence of the Gracie clan. Tonight we get to see a large Gracie (Rolles 3-0) fight a late sub Joey Beltran, who replaces Mostapha Al Turk. Gracie=submission, but at -600 there is no way to play this one. I'll pass and watch with interest instead.
Okay, now let's see what we can do with our fictitious $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $200 to win $50 on Randy to dominate Coleman.
Let's lay $222 to win $60 on Nate the Great. Spider's next.
Let's lay $170 to win $50 on Damien Maia's submission skills.
Let's lay $80 to win $40 on “Quick” Swick.
Let's lay $67 to win $50 on Matt “Terror”Serra.
Let's lay $40 to win $44 on Torres.
Let's lay $60 to win $63 on Phillipe Nover.
Let's lay $95 to win $50 on Phil Davis.
Let's lay $68 to win $40 on Tushcherer's KO power.
Let's pass on Danzig/Buchholz and Gracie/Beltran.
In total we are risking $1002 to win $447. We need favorites to perform and with very few upsets.
Don't forget to support your local youth wrestling programs where tomorrow's champions are born!
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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