Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
Date: January 2, 2010
I hope you all had a great holiday season! I hope to cap it off for you with some holiday cheer and a little extra spending money for those credit card bills. Those who followed my advice for UFC 107 would have profited by $246! That's enough for a lifetime Platinum subscription to InterMat. Let's see if we can keep the good times rolling …
Tonight's UFC 108 card features a light heavyweight, non-title fight between former Michigan State wrestler and former champion Rashad Evans (18-1-1) and knockout artist Thiago Silva (14-1-0), whose only loss is to undefeated champion Lyota Machida. This is a great match-up. It should end with a knockout, and not go the distance of three (3) rounds. If it does go the distance, I would guess that Rashad wins the dance contest. But tonight my money will be on the Brazilan Beast Silva at an attractive +175 underdog odds. I respect the methodic, cautious style of Rashad and his quick-striking power (see the Iceman for details), but Thiago Silva will be fine if Evans takes it to the mat. He may even win by submission. But my guess is that after some toe-to-toe slugging, we will once again see an invisible knife go across the neck of Thiago Silva, as this scary dude notches another scalp for his belt. Take SILVA as a rabid ‘dog and benefit from the generous +175 odds.
In what I think may be the "fight-of-the-night." British welterweight Paul "Semtax" Daley (22-8-2) takes on the division's best jiu-jitsu artist, the very lanky Dustin Hazelett (14-4-0). In a pick-em affair, Daley will be trying to end it quickly with a single punch. He devastated favorite Martin Kampmann in his last fight, and his record shows 17 of his 22 wins have come by KO! Hazelett has no chance if they stand and punch. They won't. As soon as Hazelett gets his chance to go to the mat, he will. And, that is where it will end, with Daley's arm bend backwards and his neck getting cranked. The referee will call an end to this affair late in the first round with Hazelett's hand-raised at a true valued price of –115. Lay it and lay it big. Hazelett by submission.
Lightweight Joe Lauzon (17-4-0) is another tall and lanky fighter who trains with BJ Penn, and beats most guys, but can't beat the elite (Kenny Florian). Like Hazelett, he wins by submission and his opponent tonight is the experienced veteran slugger, Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout (15-5-1, his draw with Joey Clark). These are two, different styles and the heavily favored Lauzon at –275 is expected to win. I agree. The price is steep, but his arsenal is more complete, and he gets the job done tonight. It's Lauzon by decision for me.
Lightweight Jim Miller (15-2-0) takes on journeyman, Duane Ludwig (27-9-0), who has been fighting in the UFC since '03. I'm not sure why this is on the main card tonight, but oddsmakers give Ludwig little chance of winning. A strong puncher, Ludwig will need more to get past Miller, who should end this quickly with a choke submission. There is little value in laying –450, so proceed with caution.
The opening event on the main card has Junior Dos Santos (9-1-0), who is on fire with consecutive wins against Mirko Cro Cop, Stefan Struve, and Fabricio Verdum, all formidable opponents, taking on veteran Gilbert Yvel (36-13-1, with one no contest), who has been fighting MMA for 13 years, but is making his UFC debut. The former Pride and Affliction fighter has had two fights this year, against Josh Barnett and Pedro Rizzo. Enough said. He's been around the block and his physique is impressive. But Dos Santos is younger, quicker, and more accurate with his strikes. His underrated ground game will be used only if he can't end this fight with a KO. An overpriced favorite at –325. Dos Santos still offers the only side to consider here. I like his KO chances and see this one ending in the very first round.
Tonight's undercard features two (2) fights that will be shown FREE on Spike TV for those of you interested in mixed martial arts, but unwilling to pay the almost $50 PPV fee. These fights are:
Lightweight Cole "Magrinho" Miller (15-4-0) taking on Dan Lauzon (12-2-0), Joe's brother, who makes his UFC debut. Miller is a gateway guy, if you can beat him, you belong in the UFC, lose to him and you get cut. Dan is a tough fighter, but Cole's experience in the big show gives him the edge, and at –160, the value is there. Cole Miller by decision.
Former Minnesota All-American, Jacob "Christmas" Volkmann (9-1-0) will try to bounce back from his only loss (to Paulo Thiago) as he takes on powerful striker, Martin Kampmann (15-3-0), who is also coming off a loss (to Paul Daley). This is a classic wrestler vs. striker match-up. Can Volkmann survive the KO long enough to win a decision with body control on the mat? As a +190 underdog I will take my chances on Christmas.
The remaining fights will be seen only if viewers get the chance due to shorter main event fights:
Middleweight Mark "The Filipino Wrecking machine" Munoz (6-1-0), former Oklahoma State NCAA champion, is too big a favorite here at –400, but he should get by Ryan Jensen (15-4-0). Munoz's only loss was to Matt Hamill, and he struggled against Nick Catone, but I look for him to get back on track tonight with some impressive body control that leads to some fight-ending ground-and-pound in the second round. Lay a limited amount on Munoz.
Welterweight wrestler Jake Ellenberger (21-5-0) almost shocked the MMA world by hanging so tough with Carlos Condit. He lost a close decision. He takes on a never-quit Mike "Quicksand" Pyle (18-6-1). Ellenberger is a modest –140 favorite who should out work and out wind Pyle. He gets the clear decision in a boring fight of tactical technique.
Lightweight Rafaello Oliveira (9-2-0) made his UFC debut by losing to unknown Nik Lentz. His opponent tonight, John "Quick Guns" Gunderson (22-6-0), makes his UFC debut with more submission wins than KOs, despite his nickname. Gunderson is small for even a lightweight, and I think the bright light experience of Oliveira should help him cash the ticket tonight. I'll make a small play on him at –190 to win by submission.
So let's see how we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll. History is on our side.
Let's lay $100 to win $175 in Thiago Silva's upset knockout.
Let's lay $138 to win $120 on Dustin Hazelett's predicted submission.
Let's lay $165 to win $60 on Joe Lauzon's dominance.
Let's lay $90 to win $20 on a Jim Miller bridge-jump.
Let's lay $130 to win $40 on red hot Jr. Dos Santos.
Let's lay $50 to win $125 on Jacob Volkmann to lay and pray.
Let's lay $64 to win $40 on Cole Miller and ask why we didn't lay more?
Let's lay $75 to win $20 on Munoz making wrestlers feel proud.
Let's lay $112 to win $80 on Ellenberger's work ethic.
Let's lay $76 to win $40 on Oliveira to win.
In total, we are laying an even $1000 to win $720. That's two (2) underdogs and eight (8) favorites. Good luck and enjoy the fights. I know I will. Don't forget to support your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are made.
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