Venue: Mandalay Bay Sports Arena (Las Vegas, Nevada)
Date: November 21, 2009
In a quick turnaround from last weekend's UFC 105 from England, we are back in Las Vegas tonight for the long overdue revenge match between Tito Ortiz (16-6-1) and Forrest Griffin (16-6). Tito won a close decision three years ago. But tonight he finds himself a slight underdog as the two former light-heavyweight champions meet again. Tito hasn't fought in over a year and will he be fully recovered from back surgery? Forrest is coming off his embarrassing dismantling at the hands of Anderson "Spider" Silva in Philadelphia. Silva toyed with Forrest before knocking him out while moving backwards! It was truly amazing.
I'm not sure who the hungrier fighter is here. Griffin is younger and more in his prime. Each has been the poster boy for the UFC, and you have a Good (Forrest) vs. Evil (Ortiz) thing going, too. Each has a substantial fan base, as well. But who wants this enough to display the heart of a champion? Either, I would suppose … so, I look for the value and with Tito getting +120 return on investment, and having beaten Griffin before, I'll take my shot that he can do it again. In a back-and-forth battle, look for Tito to be standing with hand raised after the scores from the judge's scorecards are read.
Welterweights Josh Koscheck (14-5) and Anthony Johnson (8-2) are too solid wrestlers (Koscheck, a former NCAA Division I champ), but they both like to go toe-to-toe punching it out. Both are lightning quick and accurate with their strikes. Either could end this quickly, and that is the risk you take here in an even battle. The betting line opened at –115 each, and a slight line movement on AJ has left Kos a modest even money underdog.
With the difference being the wrestling takedown ability of Koscheck, I will take my chances that he has finally learned from past mistakes and won't stay and bang, as they say. That may be wishful thinking, but if I see him charging in low and driving his opponent to the mat, I will know that I am on the right side this soon to end fight!
Koscheck ends this one late in the second period with a convincing show of ground-and-pound power.
The younger brother and identical clone of top heavyweight contender Minotauro Nogueira, the equally dangerous light-heavyweight Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (17-3) will make his UFC debut tonight on the main card against knockout artist, Luiz "Banho" Cane (11-1-1, with 8 KOs). Nobody has ever submitted Nogueira and Cane won't be the first either. He will need a first round knockout to have a chance in this one. If Nogueira can weather the storm and get Cane to the mat, it should soon be over. A relative bargain at –140, Nogueira adds his name to the long and growing list of 205-pound beasts with a second- round submission by arm bar.
Anytime welterweight Phil Baroni's (13-11, with 9 KOs) name is on the card, there is money to be made (betting against him). Don't get me wrong, if you've ever seen the short film clip of his demolishing of Dave Menne, you know this NY City Bad Ass dude can hit and hit and hit ... but, unfortunately that's all he can do. And, he gasses easily. Too easily. Like money in the bank. So Amir Sodallah's (2-1) job tonight will be to kick and jab, bob and weave, and stay away from Baroni with your long leg kicks. It is time to win your fan base back after that embarrassing lost to Jonny Hendricks. The deeper the fight goes, the less likely that Baroni wins ... that's just the way it is. This one will get midway into the second round before Sodallah at –185 ends it with a rear-naked choke submission to a fatigued Bad Ass.
Karo Parisyan and Dustin Hazelett were to fill out the main card, but Karo threw in the towel and decided not to fight due to nagging injuries, I guess. Needless to say, that you DON'T DO THAT to Dana White, and Karo's UFC career has now officially died. That's too bad. This could have been the fight-of-the-night. Oh well … Let's move on.
Brazilian Jui-jitsu master Paulo Thiago (11-1) will try to stop former Minnesota wrestler Jacob Volkmann (9-0) in Volkmann's UFC debut. Thiago's resume has a surprise KO of Josh Koscheck on it, and an ability to finish fights with his strong submission skill set. Volkmann is a bit cocky, and not too concerned about Thiago's ground game. As a pure wrestler he is banking on controlling his opponent's body as he outscores him and wins a close decision. Making Volkman a +170 dog or better is enough enticement for me to take the bait. I wear Golden Gopher Gold tonight.
... And now a quick look at the undercard:
In bonus coverage on FREE Spike TV tonight, you can watch two preliminary fights, and they are both good ones!
Former Okie State three-time NCAA champion Jake Rosholt (6-1) will try to control the pace of this middleweight fight with Kendall Grove (12-6) a free-swinging striker with a lanky 6'6" frame. Grove's takedown defensive sprawl is wide and effective, but Rosholt's double-leg takedown is as good as it gets! Can Grove land the punch or keep Rosholt at bay with his long kicks? Or will Rosholt penetrate and send Grove to the mat where he will be smothered like a fire under Smokey the Bear's boots? I'll chose the latter ... a great wrestler almost always beats a great striker. The public has moved the betting line toward Kendall Grove with its action. That just gave me better odds on Rosholt, so I'll lay the –180. Rosholt wins by judges' decision.
Have you seen the Muay Thai of welterweight Ben "Killa B" Saunders (7-1-2)? Or how about the punching power of Marcus "The Irish Hand Grenade" Davis (21-6)? No? Well, then you need to watch this one. Somebody's going down and probably in the first round. No wrestling here. This one will be a stand-up clinic in uppercuts and overhead rights with some knee to the head Muay Thai kicks. Get out the mops as there may be blood everywhere. I love Marcus Davis. He is a great overseas ambassador for the sport. But Ben Saunders is a good 5" taller and that spells trouble when he clinches the back of your neck and you see knees headed your way! I like the fact that in an even fight, the bookies have made the Killa B a +170 underdog. I'll grab the bone and head to the winner's window with a stunning first round exhibit in knee-to-face body message.
Lightweight Caol Uno (25-12-4), has been fighting MMA for over 13 years. He wins by KO, and he wins by submission, and he wins by decision. But he wins. Fabricio Camoes (10-4) is making his UFC debut with hope of showing off his strong jui-jitsu skills. Uno's vast cage experience should be the different as he blends in enough striking and take-downs to earn a judges' decision. I'm laying the –185 that experience pays off.
The following two matches are "bridge jumps" where there is a prohibitive favorite to win the fight and the oddsmakers have jacked up the price on that obvious fighter that they are literally begging you to bet on the underdog (and lose). Leaving you the option of dumping your bet on a longshot against your gut feeling, or being overcharged by the bookie for getting the luxury of having your preferred man in the octagon.
Welterweight Brock Larson should win by TKO over Brian Foster, unless Foster surprises us all with his perhaps slightly superior wrestling skills. You lay five bucks on the table trying to win one if you want Larson. Same with light-weight George Sotiropoulus (10-2), who should submit Jason Dent (19-10) somewhere midway through their fight. George is –500 also.
So, now it's time to raise some money for our local youth wrestling program where future champions are made. Let's see how we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll ...
Let's lay $75 to win $90 on Tito's comeback over Forrest.
Let's lay $148 to win $80 on Amir Sadollah to stop Baroni.
Let's lay $75 to win $75 on Josh Koscheck's better wrestling.
Let's lay $140 to win $100 on Nogueira to follow in his brother's footsteps.
Let's lay $75 to win $127.50 on Jake Volkmann's stunning upset.
Let's lay $153 to win $80 on Jake Rosholt to dominate Kendall Grove.
Let's lay $75 to win $142.50 on Killa B Saunders over the Irish Hand Grenade.
Let's lay $111 to win $60 on Cael Uno and his experience.
Let's "bridge jump" with $75 to win $15 on both Brock Larson and George Sotiropoulus.
In total we are risking $1002 to win $785.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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