The event, which has been well-documented to not include women, has a variety of star power from around the country and includes the ultra-sellable Frank Chamizo as the headlining act. If FloWrestling is hoping to sell subscriptions, there is no question this event will draw in eyeballs.
However, with those eyeballs will come at an additional risk to the sport of wrestling. With big names and media coverage will come the scrutiny of health officials, political leaders, and the wrestling community. Deaths from COVID are well above 1000-a-day nationwide and Texas is in the midst of its worst-ever outbreak. Should COVID protocols not be followed there is potential for serious backlash among stakeholders and those influential in national sports.
The rooftop event held in Chicago a few weeks ago did not follow strict protocols and the local press and wrestling media covered those shortcomings. This event is much larger -- it's being hosted by the largest wrestling broadcaster in the nation, advertised heavily, and will have more organic interest in the outcomes due to there being three world champions on the card. Should mistakes like those in Chicago be made in Austin there is risk of serious blowback for the sport of wrestling.
I don't subscribe to the logic that wrestling is more dangerous than basketball or football in terms of transmission. In fact, the argument can be made that dual meets and controlled settings have less risk of transmission than team sports with lots of intermingling of athletes.
The public won't see that comparison -- they will only see two individuals standing face-to-face, breathing on each other, and ask themselves if that exact moment is a highly transmissible situation. We have to understand that this event will do nothing to make the situation better for the perception of wrestling. The best we can hope for is that nothing goes horribly wrong.
Wear a mask …
Q: Who wins this weekend?
-- Will D.
Foley: Predictions below.
Kyle Dake vs. Frank Chamizo
Stylistically this is an incredible matchup of two ultra-defensive wrestlers with unique scrambling ability and sense of their positioning on the mats. The only issue I see is that neither is likely to attack early or often, and when they do it will be the ultimate shutdown mode to follow.
For the fans, the most entertaining match might start with a Dake attack countered for four points by Chamizo. We know that Chamizo will shut down the action after that many points and that Dake becomes far less tactical when he is trailing in a match. With the score 4-0 I'd think another pushout or two, and maybe a takedown would move the score to 4-3 heading into the break.
Chamizo reverses a sure-thing pushout and scores to go up 5-3. Dake does something miraculous with about 30 seconds left on the clock to tie it up, but trail on criteria. We then get 25 seconds of fans yelling for a penalty point as Chamizo flees and we end up with a last-second attempt from Dake to push Chamizo out of bounds that ends up deciding the match.
That's best case for fans. The worst case might be something more like watching paint dry and neither is willing to attack, and we get offsetting shot clocks to decide the match.
I'll take Dake.
Myles Martin vs. David Taylor
David Taylor is among the best overall wrestlers in the world. He's creative, punishing, attack-minded, and strong-willed. He has great coaching and doesn't seem content to rest on his 2018 world championship. Taylor's recent knee surgery has healed and his last return to the mats was to capture the Olympic qualification spot for the United States at 86 kilograms.
Martin is taking the match on short notice and while he has the skills to become one of the best in the world, he won't be challenging Taylor too much on scrambles, not in leg defense. My main concern is that both men stay healthy for their runs at the Olympic Games and that Martin can make it a competitive match for Taylor who will need every opportunity to tune-up for Tokyo 2021 where a super-charged Yazdani is waiting for his opportunity to seek revenge.
Jack Mueller scores with a chest wrap against Nick Piccininni at Beat the Streets in 2019 (Photo/Tony Rotundo, WrestlersAreWarriors.com)Jack Mueller vs. Roman Bravo-Young
Fun matchup. I'm biased, but I think far too many people underestimate Jack Mueller in general, but especially in freestyle. Mueller has an awesome style for international success, endless gas tank, and coaching under Kendall Cross. He's competitive with Spencer Lee and has been on a U23 world team. Give the man his props.
Roman Bravo-Young is a lot for any wrestler to handle, but where he's best in scrambles is where Mueller has always found opportunities to score. RBY's attacks will need to be clean and his finishes immediate if he's to avoid a situation where Mueller wears down the pace and ties up RBY before actualizing points.
Mueller by a field goal.
Vito Arujau vs. Sammy Alvarez
There is a compelling case to be made for Arujau to end up on the Olympic team. I don't think he will, but he's top level 57-kilogram talent for the United States and will be on a senior team before the end of his career. (I still think it'll be Spencer Lee in 2021.)
The matchup with Sammy Alvarez is a nice tune-up for the recently announced Senior Nationals in October, but I don't think there will be much of a competitive back-and-forth. Mostly, I am interested to see Arjuau's gains in freestyle and if he has something special to offer at the world level.
Darrion Caldwell vs. Luke Pletcher
I'd really, really hope that Pletcher has zero issues with Caldwell. When is the last time Caldwell wrestled a full match? 2012? He's had an incredible MMA career, but the tactical side of the sport, conditioning, and the mentality of wrestling are very different than they were when Caldwell last wrestled. That is to say nothing of the rule set and game planning that accompanies a perfect knowledge of the current sport and interpretations.
Hope to see the best of Pletcher and for Caldwell to keep it competitive enough for a flash of his former brilliance to come through for fans
Q: I don't think many wrestling fans are as opposed to women's wrestling as you think but rather are frustrated that the ladies would ask for more money than DT and then accuse Flo of sexism when Flo declines. It seems like a fairly dishonest charge against Flo because there's a reasonable argument to be made that DT will draw more eyeballs for the event. This is obviously hard to measure but one metric we can use is DT has ~85K followers where Jacarra Winchester only has 2.5K. I understand your point about wrestling not operating in the free market but isn't there still a threshold where the girls are asking for too much money? Am I missing something here?
-- Steven L.
Foley: Fair. I think you make a valid point that the wrestling community isn't all-in against women. I also agree that David Taylor should be paid more than Jacarra based on his ability to draw eyeballs and his success on the NCAA and international level.
Equal pay is the goal, but FloWrestling (or any private company) can't be compelled retroactively to adhere to a standard that is outside of their contractual responsibilities as partners. The larger goal for this event, and probably for many other independent events (non-USA Wrestling) is to have there be some representation. With the ability to compete on the undercard a number of interested men's freestyle fans might find entertainment in the women's side. It's how you promote young boxers and how the UFC limped into female-led fight cards.
Complicated topic all around, but from my perspective we can all work hard on increasing representation and shifting the spotlight when there is an opportunity to expand the reach of women's wrestling at home and abroad.
And this isn't really necessary to write, but women's wrestling is WILDLY entertaining. For anyone who says they aren't as good as the boys I don't see them making the same arguments for not watching high school wrestling, or college wrestling, or age group level wrestling.
And lastly Jacarra has 11K Instagram followers!
Q: Aaron Pico makes his MMA return on Friday. His career has not gone as planned so far, but he's still young. Do you still think he could be a champion in Bellator or UFC?
-- Mike C.
Foley: Of course.
Pico was young when he was introduced to the MMA community and his successes and failures are more like early season wrestling tournaments than they are performances at the state championships. Getting KO'ed or choked is part of a longer learning process that can't be stifled due to setbacks. Pico seems to understand this and has been powering through the early bumps.
Fighting is crazy, but Pico is building a skill set and mental outlook that will benefit him in the long term. He has the talent and the discipline to succeed at anything he does so his career will largely be dependent on how he manages his health, the skills he chooses to improve, and the impact his management has on who he chooses to fight. Anyone who knows Pico understands that he doesn't spend much time away from the mats, and if he does it's to be with his family or his horses.
Pico will be a Bellator champion. After a few defenses I can see him make the transition to the UFC after a handful of title defenses. How he does there is anyone's guess, but you should never underestimate Pico.
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