The recent announcement the defending NCAA champion Anthony Cassar would be out for the season, and the return of Steveson off suspension, shook the top of the rankings. Now, with only eight weeks before Big Tens the two top-ranked heavyweights will get their first opportunity to measure their offseason gains.
Big men attract attention and it's good for college wrestling to have someone as outspoken (and Brock-aligned) as Steveson facing off against an athletic freak like Parris. Thought they somehow missed each other in 2019, the two are sure to create fireworks for the rest of the season and for two more years. That future and the type o must-watch rivalry match this might become makes me excited for the future of the weight class.
Let's also not forget that this rivalry and the additional training being put in by Steveson and Parris will also pay off for the 2020 Olympic team. While Nick Gwiazdowski is the top guy he is certain to be pushed by Steveson and Parris and create the type of competition that makes all three better and helps improve the chances for Team USA to earn a medal at 125 kilograms in Tokyo.
To your questions …
Sarah Hildebrandt after winning gold at the Pan American Games (Photo/Tony Rotundo, WrestlersAreWarriors.com)Q: What do you think of Sarah Hildebrandt dropping to 50 kilograms for the Olympic year? Do you view her as the favorite to make the U.S. team? How do you see her stacking up against the world?
-- Mike C.
Foley: I think that a runner-up finish at 53 kilograms makes her a definitive favorite to make the United States team at 50 kilograms. There is a lot of talent at the lower weights with Vicky Anthony and Whitney Condor, but so far they haven't created a lot of success on the international level.
I got to watch Hildebrandt wrestle several times last year and it was somewhat obvious that she was outmuscled by India, Japan, North Korea and China. She had successes, but she's thinner than most of those 53-kilogram women and was unlikely to flip those results in 2020. Also, if she knew that Jacarra Winchester was coming down to 53 kilograms she may have made the decision (wise IMO) to get out her way.
As for medaling … sure? I don't know that she can beat Maria Stadnyk (Azerbaijan) and I'm 98% certain nobody is beating Yui Susaki (Japan). I think Yanan Sun (China) is a guaranteed medalist too. Overall it may just depend on where she lands in the bracket because I do think Hildebrandt can beat Alina Vuc (Romania) and Valentina Islamova (Kazakhstan).
Oh, but first, someone has to qualify for the Olympic Games and then earn their spot on the team. The wrestle-off for the Pan Am Qualification spot is Feb. 8 featuring Hildebrandt vs. Condor.
Q: What do you think of the head coaching endowment at Drexel? How many wrestling programs have this?
-- Mike C.
Foley: I'm not sure how many programs have a full endowment, but I do know that Cornell, Columbia, Penn, Harvard, Penn State and Princeton all have endowments. I think that Bucknell's program is endowed, though I don't think it's just the head coaching position. There are certainly a bunch more that I'm missing, but those are the ones that I can recall quickly. (Big Ten and Big 12 schools must have a few.)
For Drexel, a program that could be seen as an at-risk program under normal conditions, this is a huge relief. This all but guarantees existence. There could be future funding cuts at the school level, but to get the endowment working on your behalf and supplementing the investment by the school and annual fundraising is a huge help for Drexel, and any other program.
A subtle effect is that more programs will be prompted to look for these types of generous donations. They are extremely effective and in a year when JP Morgan made $36.4 billion dollars, I'm sure there are some alumni who have the means to support extra giving.
Q: Who do you think will win the women's spots at the wrestle-offs for the Pan Am Olympic Qualifier?
50 kilograms: Whitney Conder vs. Sarah Hildebrandt (best of three)
53kg: Katherine Shai vs. Haley Augello (prelim match), Shai/Augello winner vs. Jacarra Winchester (best of three)
57 kilograms: Helen Maroulis vs. Alli Ragan (prelim match), Maroulis/Ragan winner vs. Jenna Burkert (best of three)
Foley: Sarah Hildebrandt looks in good shape to take the best of three at 50 kilograms, but let's see how she performs today at the Matteo Pellicone. Jacarra should take 53 kilograms and Helen at 57 kilograms (if she's healthy!).
Q: How will the freestyle team that competes at the Pan Am Olympic Qualifier be chosen?
-- Mike C.
Foley: The men are whoever was on the 2019 World Team. David Taylor has the first optionality at 86 kilograms since he was the defending world champion when he was injured. That should exclude Pat Downey, but it really just depends on David Taylor and how he's feeling. Other than that I think the lineup is unchanged from what we saw in Nur-Sultan.
MULTIMEDIA HALFTIME
Hildebrandt discusses the drop to 50 kilograms
Kamal Bey
Q: On riding time, since everyone is chiming in, why not just do a hybrid of freestyle and folkstyle? Keep the riding time point, but simply put wrestlers back on their feet after 30 seconds. Some people will argue that the bottom wrestler might be close to getting a reversal/escape or the top person about to turn, but they had their shot in 30 seconds and now go back on their feet regardless of where they are. This would at least push some more action on their feet. Thoughts?
-- Andy S.
Foley: The main issue is that the bottom man would be heavily incentivize to not "open up" and would instead do everything to simply clam up. Remember that in folkstyle wrestling there is both an incentive to escape (1 point) and a disincentive to clam up (stall warning). The effect is to keep the action moving from once they hit the mat. I don't think we can split the difference, but a shot clock of sorts is probably one thought closer to the solution.
If the riding time point doesn't exist there is WAY less riding in college wrestling which would create more standing wrestling and thus more action. Add in a point for the step out and action will increase dramatically and somewhat eliminate these long boring matches where I have to watch some kid try to ride another kid like it's the rodeo. (That is NOT wrestling as it was envisioned in its purest form.)
1. Kill riding time
2. Add step out
3. Enjoy action
Q: How would you rank the No. 1-ranked wrestlers from most likely NCAA champ to least likely NCAA champ?
-- Mike C.
Foley:
184: Zahid Valencia (Arizona State)
125: Spencer Lee (Iowa)
285: Gable Steveson (Minnesota)
174: Mark Hall (Penn State)
149: Pat Lugo (Iowa)
133: Seth Gross (Wisconsin)
157: Ryan Deakin (Northwestern)
165: Vincenzo Joseph (Penn State)
197: Kollin Moore (Ohio State)
141: Luke Pletcher (Ohio State)
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