1. A Fab 50 national champion to be decided
The top two teams in the country, Blair Academy (N.J.) and Wyoming Seminary (Pa.), both conclude their seasons this weekend with the National Prep Championships. Wyoming Seminary out-pointed Blair Academy to win the Walsh Jesuit Ironman in early December, while Blair Academy won the dual meet when the two squads met five weeks ago. As a result, this is the rubber match, where the rubber hits the road, and so forth.
The current national No. 1 is Blair Academy. With that being said, they will enter this weekend as the underdog, since two of their elite wrestlers did not compete in their National Prep qualifier last weekend: Trevor (126) and Travis (152) Mastrogiovanni. That being said, the Buccaneers still have seven nationally ranked wrestlers, led by Marc-Anthony McGowan (106) and Shayne Van Ness (132), who are both ranked No. 1 in the country. they are joined by No. 10 Ryan Miller (120), No. 12 Lucas Chittum (132), No. 10 Rylan Rogers (182), No. 8 Peyton Craft (195), and No. 11 Noah Pettigrew (220).
When Wyoming Seminary out-pointed Blair Academy to win the Walsh Ironman, the Buccaneers were absent a pair of nationally elite wrestlers at that point (Trevor Mastrogiovanni and Shayne Van Ness); in addition, the Buccaneers had Domonic Mata in the lineup at that point, but he has not competed for them since the Beast of the East. The Blue Knights are led by three national No. 1 ranked wrestlers of their own, Nic Bouzakis (126), Beau Bartlett (138), and Lachlan McNeil (145). Three other are ranked: No. 12 Drew Munch (132), No. 14 Gabriel Arnold (160), and No. 9 Kolby Franklin (220), while Brennan Cernus (113) is the first wrestler outside the rankings.
While there is a certain vibe of it being just two teams and the field, there is reason to say that it isn't the case, as four additional nationally ranked teams are present in the field: No. 7 Malvern Prep (Pa.), No. 41 Mount St. Joseph's (Md.), No. 42 McDonogh School (Md.), and No. 48 Baylor School (Tenn.).
2. Class 1A rubber match at "The Well"
Barring the unexpected, there is going to be a third dual meet matchup of the season between No. 46 Don Bosco (Iowa) and No. 47 Lisbon (Iowa) on Wednesday evening at 6:30 p.m. Central Time. Lisbon beat Don Bosco 34-32 in mid-December at the Battle of Waterloo, as the teams split the weight classes at seven-apiece, and Lisbon won two of three matches decided by two points. Then on the second to last day of January, Don Bosco made the trip to Lisbon and put a 37-21 hammering on the Lions; the Dons won nine of the fourteen bouts, made all the right lineup strategy adjustments, and won all three matches decided by two points or less.
Don Bosco has won the last two dual team state titles, though they have faced Denver on both occasions in the final; Lisbon last won the dual team title in 2017 when they beat Don Bosco 45-26 in the final. On the traditional side of things, Lisbon won the title in 2017 (sweep) and 2018, while Don Bosco got the sweep last year; Don Bosco was runner-up in 2017 and 2018 with Lisbon finishing as runner-up last year. Lisbon is the second seed and draws Clarion-Goldfield-Dows before a semifinal against the winner of West Sioux vs. Denver; while top seed Don Bosco faces Woodbury Central before a semifinal date against either Lake Mills or Logan-Magnolia.
The traditional tournament, which is in its 100th year overall in Iowa (though it's only the 95th sanctioned by the IHSAA) starts on Thursday and concludes with championship matches on Saturday evening. Don Bosco qualified ten to state, nine as district champions; while Lisbon will be working with two less wrestlers, with all eight reaching state as district champions. While both teams are supremely talented, it would be a significant surprise if they approached the 194 points that Don Bosco amassed in 2009, which serves as the Class 1A traditional state meet scoring record.
Rankings from prior to the state series by The Predicament suggest that Don Bosco will have two state champions, Cade Tenold (160) and Thomas Even (182); while Lisbon is projected to have three in Robert Avila (132), Cael Happel (138), and Cole Clark (195).
Dylan Ragusin and Jacob Rundell have split matches this season (Photo/Tony Rotundo, WrestlersAreWarriors.com)3. A Friday to pay attention to in Illinois
It happens this year that there are multiple weight classes where the de facto finals match is arguably going to take place on Friday as opposed to in the final on Saturday, such is the nature of four sectionals qualifying four each feeding into 16-man state brackets that are seeded based on a point system for sectional champions. Certain circumstances occur where the point system is imperfect: impact freshmen, key wrestlers injured the previous year, upsets at the sectional tournaments.
In the Class 3A 106-pound weight class, two contestants are ranked among the top ten in the country, No. 7 Charlie Farmer (Moline) and No. 9 William Baysinger (Prospect). Farmer is the top-ranked wrestles of the four sectional champions having placed fifth at state last year. Returning state qualifier Ben Aranda (DeKalb) and Junior National freestyle All-American Sammie Hayes (Carl Sandburg) are sectional champions in the bottom half. Undefeated freshman Baysinger, who has a head-on win during the season over Super 32 placer and 16U freestyle All-American Farmer is in the same half-bracket as Farmer. Also in the weight class is 16U nationals double All-American Joe Fernau (Montini Catholic), who is in the same quarter as Farmer, entering state off a 9-5 sectional semifinal loss to Fernau.
A Friday night showdown between past state champions is likely at 126 pounds in Class 3A, as No. 5 Jacob Rundell (Oak Park River Forest) and No. 6 Dylan Ragusin (Montini Catholic) are both in the top half of the draw; returning state champion Ragusin is the top-ranked of the sectional champions, while Rundell is ranked fourth since he was unable to compete at the state tournament last year after winning a state title in 2018. These two wrestlers split bouts during January; Ragusin winning in the finals of the Doc Buchanan, while Rundell won at the Beat the Streets Duals.
Sectional champions in the other half-bracket are three-time state qualifier Sam Spencer (Huntley), a 2018 state placer, and 2018 state qualifier Mikey Kaminski (Lockport); the senior Kaminski was also champion at the Preseason Nationals. What confuses me here is how Kaminski is ranked above Rundell given their career credentials. 2018 state qualifier Nick Minnito (Plainfield Central) is in the same quarter as Rundell, two-time state qualifier Reese Martin (Neuqua Valley) is with Ragusin and returning state qualifier Alex Lalezas (Chicago Mt. Carmel) is paired with Spencer in a potential quarterfinal bout.
One massive upset at the sectional state in Class 3A at 195 has created an absolutely massive quarterfinal bout. Returning state medalist, and this year a Doc Buchanan runner-up, Daemyen Middlebrooks (Oak Park River Forest) lost 16-7 to sophomore Ghee Rachal (Marist) in the sectional semifinal this past week; that result dropped him four positions to No. 18 nationally. The weight class overall is anchored by two-time state medalist Nick Stemmet (Yorkville), who is undefeated on the season and ranked No. 10 nationally. Rachal would lose by injury default in the final to returning state qualifier Dzhabrail Khurshidov (West Aurora), which yielded Khurshidov the second ranking. As a result, Middlebrooks -- who was third at the sectional -- is relegated to one of the top two quarters of the draw, and it happens to be that Middlebrooks vs. Stemmet is a quarterfinal slated for Friday morning or early afternoon.
Rachal is also in the top half bracket and finds himself in a quarter-bracket with sectional champion Isaiah Pettigrew (Fremd). The junior Khurshidov should go relatively un-challenged in his bottom half of the draw.
4. Battle for the crown in the Hoosier State
No. 40 Indianapolis Cathedral has won the last two IHSAA state titles despite failing to win the IHSWCA State Dual Tournament on either occasion. This year, the Irish were champions in the state duals with a 32-26 win over now No. 39 Evansville Mater Dei. Two other Indiana teams have also spent some time in the national rankings during the course of the season, 2017 state champion Brownsburg and Crown Point. Mater Dei qualified the most individuals to the state tournament with nine, while Cathedral and Crown Point qualified eight each, and Brownsburg brings seven to Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Friday night; it should be noted that Chesterton also qualified eight wrestlers to state.
With the Indiana state tournament being single elimination, except for an umbrella eight-person event on Saturday, wrestlers must win on Friday night in order to place; a Friday night loss equals no wrestling on Saturday.
A couple notes of interest in looking at the field through the lens of the top five teams, there is only one weight (152) where none have a state qualifier, while two weighs (138 and 160) feature a wrestler from each of the top five teams. Crown Point leads the way with five wrestlers that won semi-state titles, which means that those wrestlers would not see the champion from another semi-state until the semifinal round; the other four teams in this conversation had three semi-state champions each.
There is only one Friday night head-on bout involving the top five teams, and that comes at 170 pounds where Gavin Layman (Chesterton) faces Gabe Sollars (Evansville Mater Dei). In an interesting twist, the winner of that bout could be positioned to face semi-state champion Tyler Wagner (Indianapolis Cathedral) on Saturday morning with a spot in the state semis on the line.
In the 138-pound bracket, where each of the top five teams has a state qualifier, there are two possible head-on quarterfinal bouts that could play key roles in the overall architecture of the team race. Assuming Friday night wins, the pairing would place 2018 state placer Logan Bailey (Indianapolis Cathedral) vs. three-time state placer Drake Campbell (Brownsburg), with Campbell having a career 0-3 mark in the state quarterfinals; while two-time state placer/returning state runner-up Blake Boarman (Evansville Mater Dei) would face semi-state champion Ethan Kaiser (Chesterton).
There are five other potential quarterfinal matches involving top five teams that could happen on Saturday morning, if wrestlers win on Friday night: semi-state champion Logan Frazier (Crown Point) vs. now three-time state qualifier Cole Ross (Evansville Mater Dei) at 113; three-time state medalist (IN/MI) Riley Bettich (Crown Point) vs. returning state third place Alec Freeman (Evansville Mater Dei) at 120, though the reward for winning that bout is a likely semifinal against national No. 12 Zeke Seltzer (Indianapolis Cathedral); two-time state medalist Kysen Montgomery (Brownsburg) vs. returning sate medalist Stephen Robertson (Crown Point) at 126; semi-state champion Noah Hollendonner (Crown Point) against state placer Peyton Asbury (Brownsburg) at 160, though Asbury is likely to be eliminated on Friday night by returning state runner-up Cooper Noehre (Greenfield-Central); and state medalist Macartney Parkinson (Evansville Mater Dei) vs. Johnny Parker (Indianapolis Cathedral) at 182, though Parker is likely to be eliminated on Friday night by three-time state placer Mason Winner (Jay County).
Recommended Comments
There are no comments to display.
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now