However, one of the main stories is the uncertainty around the Blair Academy program and lineup. First, and obviously foremost, is the exit of Mason Manville. One of the nation's best juniors has left the school, and will spend the rest of this season training and competing in the Olympic styles through the Minnesota Storm. In addition, top ten in the nation wrestlers Charles Tucker (132) and Brandon Dallavia (170) have not competed since the Ironman.
Things have not been perfect for St. Paris Graham since the Ironman either. No. 20 Brent Moore (145) did not compete at the GMVWA this past Saturday and Sunday, while nationally ranked Eli Stickley (120) and Eli Seipel (126) have each absorbed an unexpected setback in the interim. Stickley losing 8-6 in the GMVWA semis to Gage Branson (Glen Este, Ohio), after giving up an early five-point throw; while Seipel lost 4-3 to state placer Georgio Poullas (Canfield, Ohio) 4-3 the prior weekend in a dual meet.
All of that being said, one finds it hard to believe that each team won't be at the fullest strength possible on Saturday afternoon. The following reflects projected lineups for each squad.
106: Justin Stickley (St. Paris Graham) vs. Matthew Vinci (Blair Academy)
Stickley placed at state last year as a freshman, and was fifth at the Walsh Ironman in mid-December. The freshman Vinci went 1-2 at both the Ironman and Beast of the East. This match has bonus points written all over it.
113: No. 3 Mitch Moore vs. Zach Sherman
The freshman sensation Moore was just that in winning the Walsh Ironman, while returning National Prep runner-up Sherman took eighth. Moore will be victorious in this match, while the goal for Sherman is to quite frankly eliminate bonus points.
120: No. 6 Eli Stickley vs. Requir van der Merwe
Stickley finished as a somewhat unexpected runner-up at the Ironman. However, his overall career has been more than excellent; winning state last season, winning the Ironman during his sophomore season, and earning three placements at the Super 32 Challenge. The junior van der Merwe placed third at National Preps last year, fifth at the Beast, and was one match away from Ironman placement. Even though van der Merwe upset Stickley in last year's dual meet, and Stickley is prone to the goofy outcome, the most likely outcome here is a Stickley decision.
126: No. 15 Eli Seipel vs. Andrew Merola/Andrew Monohan
Blair Academy started different wrestlers in each of the two major tournaments this season; both the freshman Merola and the senior Monohan went 2-2 in their respective apperances. In the opening match at the Ironman, Seipel earned a pin over Merola. Look for possible (even probable) bonus points for Seipel in this dual match.
132: No. 11 Rocky Jordan vs. No. 7 Charles Tucker
This here is arguably the swing match of the entire dual meet. Though Tucker is higher ranked based on having a more robust resume, including a pair of Junior National freestyle All-American finishes (runner-up this past year) the freshman Jordan upended Tucker 6-4 in the Walsh Ironman semifinal.
138: Ryan Thomas vs. No. 3 Matthew Kolodzik
Thomas and Kolodzik are elite wrestlers in their respective grade levels; however, Thomas is a freshman and Kolodzik is a senior. Kolodzik finished as runner-up at the Walsh Ironman for a third time, and it was his fourth time in the finals; while the fab frosh Thomas went 2-2. Kolodzik should win this matchup, though a bonus point outcome is highly unlikely.
145: No. 20 Brent Moore vs. Michael Monica
At the Ironman, Moore placed fourth, while Monica was one match away from placing. The pair met in the opening bout for each with Moore earning a 6-5 victory; however, Moore needed multiple (stalling) penalty points in the third period to rally back from a deficit. The "on surface" resume of each wrestler -- Moore being a FloNationals champion at Super 32 placer, while Monica is lacking that type of "juice" -- would point to a Moore win; however, a Monica win would be a leading indicator for a Blair dual meet victory.
152: No. 15 Kyle Lawson vs. No. 3 Jordan Kutler
Kutler placed third at the Walsh Ironman, while Lawson placed seventh. In addition, Kutler and Lawson had one similar opponent, No. 14 Austin Kraisser (Centennial, Md.); Kutler won 4-1, while Lawson lost 5-4. Kutler has been superlative this season in placing third at the Ironman and winning the Beast, to build upon his Junior National freestyle All-American finish this summer. The most likely outcome in this match is a Kutler decision; should Lawson win this match, it would be a leading indicator for a Graham dual met victory.
160: No. 2 Alex Marinelli vs. Ryan Karoly
With Manville out of the picture, the Blair Academy strategy for this matchup remains open. It seems most likely the Buccaneers will bump the freshman Karoly, normally a 145/152 to absorb this weight class. In the Ironman, the junior Marinelli upended Mason Manville by 3-1 overtime decision to win his first Ironman title in a third finals appearance.
170: Garrett Jordan vs. Peter Bearse
Two of the more unknown wrestlers on each team has a critical role in this dual meet. The junior Jordan, whom is not related to head coach Jeff or U.S. Congressman Jim, was just a state qualifier last year. However, he scored crucial points for the Falcons in the Ironman with a sixth place finish. The senior Bearse was not expected to contribute to the Blair varsity this year, but jumped in when Manville left the picture, and placed down at 160 pounds in the Beast. The most likely outcome here is a Jordan win by decision.
182: Hayden Bronne vs. No. 7 (at 170) Brandon Dallavia
Bronne qualified for the state tournament last year, but went 0-2 at the Walsh Ironman. Dallavia placed last year at National Preps, was a Cadet National freestyle champion this summer, and was third in the Walsh Ironman down at 170 pounds. Blair Academy will need Dallavia to secure bonus points in this one, and that is a likely outcome.
195: Kanan Sarver vs. No. 13 (at 182) Chase Singletary
The sophomore Sarver went 1-2 at the Walsh Ironman, while the sophomore Singletary placed eighth down a weight at 182 pounds, though that bracket was absolutely loaded (he placed third at the Beast as well). In this dual meet bout, bonus points seem like a good bet, the question is four or six.
220 pounds: Brandon Hays vs. Neil Putnam
The absence of state placer Josh Couchman is felt here for St. Paris Graham. He will be back in a few weeks. However, if Couchman was healthy, Blair would just flex Putnam up all the way to 285 (NFHS rules allow for the HVY class to be anyone above the 195 weight limit, whereas the Ohio rule requires the wrestler be 215 pounds). In terms of this bout, anything less than a win by fall for Putnam would reflect "victory" for Graham.
285: Dylan Nave vs. No. 11 (at 220) David Showunmi
The junior Nave had a losing record last season, and was 1-2 in the Ironman. The senior Showunmi won the Ironman down at 220 pounds, and was third in a rather tough Beast weight class at 220. In addition, he bumped up to 285 pounds this past weekend, and earned a victory over 2013 state placer Jose Palomino (St. Peter's Prep, N.J.). If this is not a win by fall for Showunmi, Graham has accomplished something.
Even though St. Paris Graham is the nation's number one team, and Blair Academy lost Manville, one could still argue the visitor Falcons enter this dual meet as the underdog. The Buccaneers lineup flexibility gives them at least 20 points from the last four weight classes. In addition, there are likely decisions at 138 and 152 pounds for Blair Academy. There are three other opportunities for them to secure a seventh win: 132, 145, or 170. The most likely path to victory for the Falcons is to win eight weight classes, or find a way to taper down bonus points in the back four weights during a seven-seven dual meet.
Should Blair Academy win the dual meet, the picture for who is number one gets totally muddied up, with the strongest argument in favor of current No. 2 Oak Park River Forest, Ill. The Huskies had an excellent Walsh Ironman -- considering the absence of No. 4 Larry Early at 145 pounds, and state qualifier Allen Stallings at 220. If St. Paris Graham win the dual meet, they will close out the year national champions, as this dual meet is the biggest hurdle left for the Falcons.
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