No. 5 Buchanan (Calif.) at No. 9 Clovis (Calif.) on Thursday
A battle for supremacy in the Clovis Unified School District, as well as the state of California, will take place on Thursday night at Clovis High School when the nation's fifth-ranked Bears travel to take on the ninth ranked Cougars. Clovis has won the last five state titles, and 13 in all; while Buchanan has but one state title in program history (2006).
The last time Clovis lost an in-state dual was to Buchanan back in 2007, and the Cougars have won 91 consecutive in-state dual meets since. That streak is in legitimate jeopardy on Thursday night as Buchanan has out-pointed Clovis in two different tournaments this season, the Zinkin Classic in mid-December and the Doc Buchanan Invitational three weeks ago.
Below are projected lineups for the dual meet on Thursday night, rankings come courtesy of The California Wrestler from Jan. 21.
106: (2) Matthew Olguin (Buchanan) vs. (4) Brandon Betancourt (Clovis) or Brandon Paulson
113: (6) Ethan Leake vs. (12) Wyatt Cornelison
120: (18) Chris Gaxiola vs. (1) No. 2 Justin Mejia
Note: Mejia has not wrestled since sustaining an injury during his second round match at the Doc Buchanan Invitational; however, given the importance of this dual meet, presume he will wrestle until he doesn't.
126: (18) Brett Villarreal vs. Brandon Rhoads
132: (1) No. 14 Durbin Lloren vs. (28) Jordan Geiger
138: (13) Joel Romero vs. (14) Dylan Martinez
Note: Returning state qualifier Martinez has been up at least one weight from this for the season to date, some of that due to varying personnel issues season to date
145: (10) Tristan Zamilpa vs. (7) Brandon Martino
Note: Returning state qualifier, round of 12, Martino has not competed since the second week of the season when he was at least one weight up from this weight class.
152: (3) Greg Gaxiola vs. (6) Jared Hill
160: (2) No. 19 Abner Romero vs. (12) Victor Vargas
170: (3) Cade Belshay vs. (12) Jerrin Dean
182: (4) Anthony Montalvo vs. (1) No. 6
Note: Hokit and A.J. Nevills have been up one weight class all season from their state ranking. However, it would be an interesting strategic play to drop into their state rank weight class for this dual meet, with Collier at 220 yielding better overall lineup strategy.
195: (3) Trevor Ervin vs. (1) No. 11
220: (12) Zak Levatino vs. (15) Tyler Collier
285: (26) Isaiah Ortiz vs. (1) No. 7 Seth Nevills
For purposes of this dual meet, it makes most sense to analyze things from back to front. If Clovis drops down Hokit and A.J. Nevills, they will win at least three of the back four weight classes, with a shot of taking all four; the Cougars would likely end up 3-1 (losing 182) if Hokit and A.J. Nevills hold at 195 and 220. From there, Clovis would need to find four more potential victories, and that's where it gets interesting. One of them would be a healthy and available Mejia. In order of likelihood, other options become: 145, 152, 106, 138, and 113.
In terms of Buchanan's match optimization, it centers around minimizing bonus points in the upper weight classes, getting momentum through the lower weights outside of Mejia, as well as wins in as many tossup matches as possible.
No. 4 Bergen Catholic (N.J.) at No. 2 Wyoming Seminary (Pa.) on Sunday
Coming off their loss of the top spot in the rankings to Blair Academy (N.J.), which now occupies the top spot, the Blue Knights will host No. 4 Bergen Catholic (N.J.) in another excellent dual meet showdown this coming Sunday. Both teams will come into this dual meet having faced stern competition throughout the season, and it will be interesting to see how they compete. Below are projected lineups for this dual meet.
106: Richie Halal (Bergen Catholic) vs. Justin Hoyle (Wyoming Seminary)
113: Carmen Ferrante vs. Benny Baker
120: No. 17 Gerard Angelo vs. Jack Davis
126: No. 1 Nick Suriano vs. Jake Riegel
132: Chris Foca vs. Trent Olson
138: No. 4 Shane Griffith or Ricky Cabanillas/Wade Unger vs. Patrick Munn
Note: Griffith has not competed since sustaining an injury at the Beast of the East, though a return has been reported as "close" for multiple weeks
145: Andrew Somple vs. Jake Hendricks
152: Brady Ford vs. No. 1 Mason Manville
160: Anthony Asatrian vs. Will Verallis
170: No. 10 Joe Grello vs. Michael Doggett
182: Josh McKenzie vs. No. 1 Nick Reenan
195: No. 5 Kevin Mulligan vs. No. 11 Christian Dietrich
Note: a flip between Reenan and Dietrich for strategy would not surprise
220: Danny DeLorenzi vs. No. 14 Will Hilliard
285: Antonio Alfano vs. Dillon Ryan
An analysis of matches in this dual meet should start with where Wyoming Seminary is most likely to accrue wins. It starts with matches at 152, 160, and 182. The Blue Knights would also be considered favorites at 132, 145, and 220 (though DeLorenzi has already knocked off one nationally ranked opponent this year).
On the other hand, Bergen Catholic would be considered as favorites at 126, 138 (if Griffith is available to wrestle), and 170. Tossup matches loom at 106, 113, 120 (though Bergen Catholic has the nationally ranked wrestler), 195 (though Bergen Catholic has the higher ranked wrestler), and 285 (a relative weakness for both squads).
Based on an "on paper" assessment, things will have to go rather right for Bergen Catholic to pull off this upset.
A fifth top ten team has a dual meet scheduled for Saturday night against nationally ranked opposition.
No. 6 Bethlehem Catholic (Pa.) vs. No. 21 Nazareth (Pa.) for the Eastern Pennsylvania Conference title
Both the Hawks and Blue Eagles swept through their divisional dual meets within the EPC during the season, so they are slated for a collision course on Saturday night. However, it is but a first chapter, as the teams will most likely be the top two seeds for the District XI Dual Meet Championships for Class AAA to be held the next week. Bethlehem Catholic currently holds the "big bully" status within Lehigh Valley wrestling, and has for about five years now; while Nazareth, traditionally a power program, is trying to knock the Hawks off their perch.
Below are projected lineups for this dual meet.
106: Zach Glenn (Bethlehem Catholic) vs. Sean Pierson (Nazareth)
Note: Glenn placed fifth at the Beast, Pierson seventh
113: Ryan Anderson vs. Tyson Klump
Note: Klump placed seventh at the Beast, including a 3-1 win over Anderson in the match to place
120: Luke Carty vs. Ryan O'Grady
Note: Both wrestlers were two rounds from placing at the Beast
126: No. 2 Luke Karam vs. Trevor Tarsi
Note: Karam was runner-up at the Beast, including an opening round technical fall over Tarsi
132: Joey Gould vs. Ian Pulli
138: Jared Papscy vs. No. 10 Sammy Sasso
Note: Sasso was champion at the Beast
145: Stephen Maloney vs. Brock Wilson
Note: Maloney was one match from placing at the Beast, while Wilson placed fourth
152: Cole Karam vs. Ricky Fornaciari
Note: Karam was one match from placing at the Beast
160: Ryan Zeiner vs. Travis Stefanik
Note: Stefanik was third at the Beast
170: No. 6 Michael Labriola vs. Cade Wilson
Note: Labriola was champion at the Beast
182: Adam Soldridge vs. Austin Vlasaty
195: Jody Crouse vs. Tucker Klump
Note: Crouse was one match from placing at the Beast
220: Jase Crouse vs. Mohamed Tounkara
285: Niko Camacho vs. Antonio Novielli
Note: Camacho placed third at the Beast
Even against what is a formidable Nazareth squad, Bethlehem Catholic is strong favorites, as their likelihood of taking victories in the back five weight classes makes it a herculean task for the Blue Eagles. The Hawks are also strong favorites at 126, 132, and 152; that's eight wins right there, even if Nazareth struck perfectly everywhere else.
Quick hitting the individual bracket tournaments
Two notable individual bracket tournaments are also on the docket for this weekend.
It starts Friday with the Central Iowa Metropolitan League (CIML) Invitational at No. 30 Southeast Polk. Joining the Rams in the field are two other nationally ranked teams, No. 31 West Des Moines Valley and No. 33 Fort Dodge. Southeast Polk beat both squads in dual meets, West Des Moines Valley beat Fort Dodge in their dual meet, while West Des Moines Valley outlasted Southeast Polk by one point in the Ed Winger Invitational this past weekend. This conference tournament features eight of the fourteen top-ranked wrestlers in their respective Class 3A state tournament weight class per The Predicament; furthermore seven weight classes feature at least four top ten ranked wrestlers, with six of the others featuring three.
The 58th annual Rocky Welton Invitational, hosted by Garden City (Kansas) features 33 teams from five different states, this includes two nationally ranked teams: No. 35 Pomona (Colo.) and No. 40 Pueblo County (Colo.). Those two teams finished one-two at the Top of the Rockies Tournament last weekend. Also in the field are three top ten overall teams in the state of Kansas, Dodge City, Garden City, and St. James Academy.
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