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  • Photo: Photo/Rob Preston

    Photo: Photo/Rob Preston

    Longitudal study of top high school wrestling programs

    The 2015-16 scholastic wrestling season marked the sixth year of the InterMat Fab 50 national high school wrestling team rankings. Even in what would seem like such a small sample size, one can make conclusions about the overall landscape of high school wrestling. One should take into consideration that six seasons reflects the full high school experience for three different graduating classes, and that nine graduating classes in all have participated in high school during those years.

    Coach Scott Green has guided Wyoming Seminary (Pa.) to national top-10 finishes in each of the past five seasons (Photo/Juan Garcia)
    Last year's longitudinal study of the Fab 50 national team rankings identified eleven schools that have appeared in the rankings each of the previous five seasons (2011-15) of the rankings' existence. From that group, eight teams ended this season ranked, which means they have now been ranked at the end of the last six seasons.

    Four additional teams have ended the last five seasons (2012-16) ranked within the Fab 50, which makes it twelve teams that have been ranked each of the last five seasons. Outside of the three teams that were ranked in the five previous seasons, but were not ranked at the end of this one, another pair of teams have appeared in the final rankings five times in the last six seasons. This reflects seventeen schools that have ended the season ranked five times in the last six years.

    The following eight programs have been ranked at the end of each of the last six seasons:

    Blair Academy, N.J. (2011: 2nd, 2012: 1st, 2013: 1st, 2014: 1st, 2015: 3rd, 2016: 1st)
    St. Paris Graham, Ohio (4th, 8th, 5th, 6th, 1st, 3rd)
    Wyoming Seminary, Pa. (11th, 9th, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 2nd)
    Clovis, Calif. (7th, 5th, 8th, 3rd, 5th, 9th)
    Apple Valley, Minn. (1st, 3rd, 13th, 5th, 17th, 14th)
    Bethlehem Catholic, Pa. (21st, 12th, 20th, 13th, 9th, 6th)
    St. Edward, Ohio (5th, 2nd, 4th, 50th, 15th, 7th)
    Montini Catholic, Ill. (28th, 26th, 12th, 18th, 16th, 39th)

    Six of the ten programs ranked in the top ten nationally this season have been nationally ranked in each of the last six seasons; Blair Academy, St. Paris Graham, and Clovis have been top ten in the country each of those seasons.

    These four additional programs have ended the last five seasons in the Fab 50:

    Oak Park River Forest, Ill. (2012: 31st, 2013: 11th, 2014: 3rd, 2015: 2nd, 2016: 8th)
    Southeast Polk, Iowa (13th, 17th, 22nd, 7th, 30th)
    Poway, Calif. (21st, 23rd, 32nd, 8th, 13th)
    Tuttle, Okla. (28th, 41st, 31st, 23rd, 11th)

    An additional pair of Illinois programs have ended five of the last six seasons within the Fab 50 rankings:

    Carl Sandburg (2011: 26th, 2012: 36th, 2013: 9th, 2014: NR, 2015: 19th, 2016: 16th)
    Marmion Academy (16th, NR, 26th, 27th, 32nd, 15th)

    Three teams saw their five-year runs of ending the season within the Fab 50 rankings come to an end this past season: Bettendorf (Iowa), Broken Arrow (Okla.), and Massillon Perry (Ohio)

    Two teams have been ranked in the Fab 50 at the end of each of the last four seasons:

    Bergen Catholic, N.J. (2013: 34th, 2014: 9th, 2015: 10th, 2016: 4th)
    Archer, Ga. (48th, 10th, 11th, 25th)

    Bergen Catholic and Oak Park River Forest have ended three straight seasons in the top ten of the national team rankings, while Wyoming Seminary has been top ten in the last five seasons, to join the three schools that have been ranked top ten in all six seasons. Basically demonstrating the monopolistic nature of the mega-programs in the national high school wrestling landscape.

    Three other teams were ranked at the end of this season, which made it four times ranked in the last six seasons:

    St. Michael-Albertville, Minn. (2011: NR, 2012: 42nd, 2013: 10th, 2014: NR, 2015: 21st, 2016: 19th)
    Allen, Texas (36th, 23rd, 15th, NR, NR, 26th)
    Lowell, Mich. (NR, 24th, NR, 16th, 25th, 48th)

    In addition, three schools were ranked from 2011-2014 but have not ended the last two ranked. Those being Brandon (Fla.), Detroit Catholic Central (Mich.), and St. Johns (Mich.). Look for Detroit Catholic Central to make a strong return to the national rankings in the coming season, as the Shamrocks return five wrestlers that won state titles in early March.

    During the past season, four programs saw their three-year strings of ending the season nationally ranked come to an end: Bound Brook (N.J.), Brecksville (Ohio), Don Bosco Prep (N.J.), and Franklin Regional (Pa.). Another pair of programs made it three consecutive years as nationally ranked teams:
    Buchanan, Calif. (2014: 39th, 2015: 12th, 2016: 5th)
    Delta, Ohio (46th, 31st, 24th)

    Three other teams appeared in the final rankings for the third time in six seasons:

    Kasson-Mantorville, Minn. (2011: 44th, 2012: NR, 2013: 24th, 2014: NR, 2015: NR, 2016: 27th)
    Nazareth, Pa. (32nd, NR, NR, 25th, NR, 21st)
    Neosho, Mo. (33rd, NR, NR, NR, 18th, 43rd)

    Early indicators suggest that Buchanan will be in top ten contention again next season, while Nazareth is likely to make the leap into that type of position. It should also be noted that eight other teams were not ranked this season, but also have ended three previous seasons in the InterMat Fab 50 national team rankings.

    Looking at the 26 other teams that appeared in this year's final Fab 50, three of them were ranked for a second straight season, another three teams were ranked for the second time in the six-year history of the Fab 50, while for 20 teams it was their first time ending the season as a nationally ranked squad.

    Those with back-to-back Fab 50 appearances were Belle Vernon (38th, 10th), Boyertown (43rd, 22nd), and Elyria (33rd, 20th). For No. 28 Camden County (40th in 2012), No. 36 Park Hill (3rd in 2013), and No. 50 Good Counsel (42nd in 2013) it marked a return to the rankings after some hiatus.

    Four of the 20 debut teams were within the top 25 of the national rankings (No. 12 Lake Highland Prep, No. 17 Washington, No. 18 Mt. Carmel, and No. 23 Malvern Prep); while the other 16 fit into the final 22 spots of the rankings (29th through 50th).

    In addition to identifying programs of excellence, a longitudinal analysis of the Fab 50 rankings can identify some trends, which can help provide an assessment of what to expect for the following year of the national team rankings.

    The presence of 20 debut teams in the final Fab 50 was the highest number in the history of the rankings, outside of the first year where every team was technically making its debut. The four seasons prior to this one saw anywhere from 13-to-18 schools making their first appearance in the end of season rankings, with the numbers on an overall downward trend, as one would expect on a year-to-year basis:

    2012: 18, 2013: 15, 2014: 16, 2015: 13

    The following is an exhibit showing the relative position for these debutant schools.



    Furthermore, the highest ranking for a school in its initial Fab 50 appearance was eleventh, achieved by Stillwater (Okla.)

    To illustrate further the extreme turnover within the national rankings during the 2015-16 season, here is a chart illustrating the number of schools that were ranked in certain tiers of the rankings in the previous season that did not return to the national rankings in the (following) listed season.



    The four seasons prior to this one saw either 18 or 19 schools that were ranked the previous season not end that next season in the rankings. On the other hand, 26 teams that were ranked in 2014-15 did not end the 2015-16 season in the final Fab 50.

    During the last five years of compiling the Fab 50 national team rankings, 132 different schools from 27 states have appeared in the season-end rankings. The following are some "by the numbers" observations about the rankings.

    56 = schools that have been ranked at the end of just one season

    34 = schools that have been ranked at the end of exactly two seasons

    17 = number of different schools to end the season ranked from Pennsylvania, which is the most of any state (11 different New Jersey and Ohio are next in line)

    1 = number of unique schools to be ranked from Arizona, Delaware, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, and Tennessee

    0 = schools to appear in the end of season national team rankings from Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Mississippi (doesn't have high school wrestling), Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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