Austin DeSanto (left) and Roman Bravo-Young (photos courtesy of Tony Rotundo; WrestlersAreWarriors.com)What will this weekend's Big Ten Championships really look like?
Based solely on the pre-seeds, released earlier this week by the Big Ten Conference, we have an idea by simply doing some math.
Here's the projected team points, based on the pre-seeds and corresponding advancement points (shoutout to the Wrestling Pirate for doing the quick math):
1. Iowa, 126.5
2. Penn State, 125
3. Michigan, 110.5
4. Nebraska, 89
5. Ohio State, 82
6. Wisconsin, 60
7. Northwestern, 53.5
8. Michigan State, 49
9. Minnesota, 42
10. Rutgers, 41
11. Purdue, 40
12. Illinois, 27
13. Indiana, 9.5
14. Maryland, 5
Of course, those scores are without the inevitable bonus points and chaos that normally shows up in these conference tournaments.
Here's one example: at each of the last two Big Ten tournaments, a wrestler seeded second has gone 0-2 (Dan Braunagel in 2021, Kaleb Young in 2020).
Here's another: last year, three wrestlers seeded sixth or lower made the finals - Purdue's Devin Schroder at 125 (7-seed), Nebraska's Ridge Lovett at 149 (7-seed) and Nebraska's Taylor Venz at 184 (6-seed).
That's not counting Rutgers' Sebastian Rivera winning at 133 pounds in 2020 as the 5-seed, or Nebraska's Chad Red making the finals in 2019 as the 8-seed. He upset top-seeded Mikey Carr that year in the quarterfinals, and Carr stumbled to eighth.
The point is, Pirate's math simply gives us a roadmap of what this weekend could look like. It's also a reference point from which to note when things go haywacky.
The goals and paths to said goals are different for all 14 teams entering this weekend. Here, we look at each team's projected point total - starting with Iowa, ending with Maryland - and see where they're most likely to pick up additional points, and where they're most likely going to lose points.
IOWA
Projected pre-seed team points: 126.5
Where Iowa Can Score More: Look at 125 pounds, where young Drake Ayala has to like his potential path to the finals. He's the 6-seed, which means a first-round matchup against Michigan State's Tristan Lujan, then, if he wins, potentially Wisconsin's Eric Barnett in the quarterfinals and Penn State's Drew Hildebrandt in the semifinals.
Otherwise, the Hawkeyes can pick up points by winning the swing matches. If all the seeds hold, check out these matchups:
- 133 final: Austin DeSanto vs. Roman Bravo-Young
- 141 final: Jaydin Eierman vs. Nick Lee
- 157 final: Kaleb Young vs. Ryan Deakin
- 165 final: Alex Marinelli vs. Carson Kharchla
- 174 semifinal: Michael Kemerer vs. Carter Starocci
- 184 quarterfinal: Abe Assad vs. Taylor Venz
- 197 semifinal: Jacob Warner vs. Eric Schultz
DeSanto, Eierman, Young, Kemerer, Assad and Warner have all won these matchups previously. Marinelli has only wrestled Kharchla once, but it's a matchup he can win if they meet again.
Where Iowa Can Lose Points: There will be more intense matchups on the way to the ones listed above. Consider:
- 133 semifinal: ADS vs. Lucas Byrd
- 141 semifinal: Eierman vs. Sebastian Rivera
- 149 quarterfinal: Max Murin vs. Yahya Thomas
- 165 semifinal: Marinelli vs. Dean Hamiti
- 197 quarterfinal: Warner vs. Pat Brucki
- 285 semifinal: Tony Cassioppi vs. Greg Kerkvliet
Those are all matchups that could potentially go the other way.
ADS has never lost to Byrd, but the matches have been close and Byrd is fearless. Yahya is a returning All-American, and Murin will have to beat him after facing a dangerous Peyton Omania in the first round. Marinelli beat Hamiti, but Hamiti has proven to be a dangerous matchup for anybody. Brucki is also an All-American and if Kerkvliet doesn't go upper-body with Cassioppi, that could be a different match.
PENN STATE
Projected pre-seed team points: 125
Where Penn State Can Score More: Seven of Penn State's 10 starters are seeded third or better, so naturally, you look at the other three weights: 149, 157 and 165.
Can Beau Bartlett make the semifinals by beating Michael Blockhus and Austin Gomez? Berge has beaten both Garrett Model and Young before. Can he do it again? Creighton Edsell at the 10-spot is tough, but what kind of magic can he pull off in the wrestlebacks?
Additionally, can Max Dean hold serve and knock off Eric Schultz in the finals at 197? Can Kerkvliet top Cassioppi in a potential semifinal at 285?
When you're at or near the top, like with Iowa, it's these smaller moves that'll help add to Penn State's total.
Where Penn State Can Lose Points: Four Nittany Lion wrestlers are pre-seeded first. If any of them lose, that'll obviously cost team points. The big one to watch there is the potential semifinal between Starocci and Kemerer.
But so could Hildebrandt if he falls in the semifinals at 125. So could Dean if he loses to Caffey in a potential semifinal, which is possible since Caffey beat Dean earlier this season. Kerkvliet is the three seed and could finish fourth.
Any of these things are possible.
MICHIGAN
Projected pre-seed team points: 110.5
Where Michigan Can Score More: There are a few fun scenarios for Michigan to consider.
Dylan Ragusin, the 5-seed at 133, could finish third. Stevan Micic, the 6-seed at 141, could regain his NCAA finalist form at his new weight and make the finals. Not much is expected of Kanen Storr, the 11-seed after an injury, so anything from him would be a bonus.
What about Myles Amine beating Aaron Brooks? Or Logan Massa beating either Starocci or Kemerer? Or Brucki beating both Warner and Schultz to make the finals at 197? Parris is the 4-seed, so technically, he could take third and those are additional points.
Where Michigan Can Lose Points: These are a few not-so-fun scenarios for Michigan.
The potential Will Lewan-Chase Saldate quarterfinal at 157 has upset written all over it (Lewan is the 3-seed, Saldate the 6-seed). Same with the potential Cam Amine-Caleb Fish quarterfinal at 165. Massa has to beat Mikey Labriola again to reach the finals at 174. What if Romero beats Myles in the semifinals at 184?
NEBRASKA
Projected pre-seed team points: 89
Where Nebraska Can Score More: Nebraska's stellar Big Ten tournament performance a year ago was bolstered by Lovett and Venz both making the finals as the 7- and 6-seeds, respectively. Who could do that this year for the Huskers?
Could Lovett get back to the finals? He's the 3-seed this year, and would have to potentially beat Gomez in the semifinals, but that'd be additional points. Robb could come out of the 5-spot and beat Kendall Coleman and Ryan Deakin. Labs could beat Massa. Lance is the 6-seed, so even fifth means extra points.
Where Nebraska Can Lose Points: Schultz at 197 would have to beat Braxton Amos, either Brucki or Warner and then either Max Dean of Cam Caffey to win a Big Ten title. That's a pretty tall ask all in one weekend. But as the 1-seed, anything less than a title means the team loses out on the projected points.
The Venz-Assad quarterfinal at 184 could also go Iowa's way. There's a world where both Labriola and Lovett finish fifth as 3-seeds (Labs losses to Massa and then Ethan Smith in the wrestlebacks; Lovett to Gomez then Yahya). Chad Red could also see Stevan Micic in the wrestlebacks, assuming all seeds hold. Not an easy task.
OHIO STATE
Projected pre-seed team points: 82
Where Ohio State Can Score More: We've talked about these swing matches already - Smith-Kemerer, Romero-Amine - but look closer. Tate Orndorff, an All-American, is the 8-seed. He can finish higher. Gavin Hoffman is the 9-seed. He could beat Amos first-round. Bryce Hepner is also a 9-seed. He could beat Robert Kanniard first-round.
Little gains here and there will help the Buckeyes.
Where Ohio State Can Lose Points: The potential quarterfinal at 125 between Malik Heinselman and Devin Schroder immediately jumps out, because Schroder is 4-0 all-time against Malik.
But so does the potential 165 final between Kharchla and Marinelli. So does the potential 149 semifinal between Sammy Sasso and either Yahya or Murin (mostly because Murin nearly beat Sasso in the regular season). Dylan D'Emilio is the 7-seed at a stacked weight. The same reasons Hepner and Hoffman could win are conversely the same reasons they could also falter.
WISCONSIN
Projected pre-seed team points: 60
Where Wisconsin Can Score More: It's totally possible that Barnett, Gomez and Hamiti all make the finals and that Trent Hillger (7 at 285), Braxton Amos (8 at 197), Andrew McNally (11 at 174), Garrett Model (7 at 157) and Joey Zargo (8 at 141) all outperform their seeds.
Where Wisconsin Can Lose Points: It's also totally possible that Barnett, Gomez and Hamiti all don't make the finals and that each of the previously listed guys wrestles below their seeds and it becomes a tough weekend for the Badgers.
NORTHWESTERN
Projected pre-seed team points: 53.5
Where Northwestern Can Score More: We aren't talking enough about the possibility that Michael DeAugustino and Chris Cannon could both stormed out of the 7-spots at 125 and 133 and finish in the top-four at their respective weights. That also jumps out.
There are smaller gains, too, like Yahya Thomas, the 5-seed at 149, finishing in the top four, or Frankie Tal Shahar cracking the top eight as the 10-seed, or Jack Jessen winning a wrestleback match or two as the 14-seed, or Andrew Davison out-performing his 10-seed.
But the MDA and CC draws are favorable and the possibility of them making runs would benefit Northwestern.
Where Northwestern Can Lose Points: There's a world where Lucas Davison (5 at 285) finishes seventh or worse and Ryan Deakin loses before the finals at 157. It's a world Northwestern wasn't absolutely nothing to do with, but it's a world that exists.
MICHIGAN STATE
Projected pre-seed team points: 49
Where Michigan State Can Score More: Ready for this?
Rayvon Foley takes third from the 4-spot at 133, Peyton Omania headlocks his way to the semifinals at 149, Chase Saldate and Caleb Fish both make the semifinals at 157 and 165, respectively, and Cam Caffey beats both Max Dean and Eric Schultz and wins 197.
Not predictions, but all of those are entirely possible.
Where Michigan State Can Lose Points: OK, ready for this?
Caffey loses to Dean then Brucki and falls to the fifth-place match as the 3-seed, Layne Malczewski loses in the first-round to Chris Weiler, Fish and Saldate both go 2-2 and drop to the seventh-place matches, and Foley loses to Ragusin in the quarterfinals.
Again, not predictions, but all of those are entirely possible.
MINNESOTA
Projected pre-seed team points: 42
Where Minnesota Can Score More: Patrick McKee, the returning third-place finisher at last year's NCAA Championships, is the 8-seed. It's hilarious to see it in writing and then to actually read it aloud, but welcome to the Big Ten Conference.
McKee, Michael Blockhus, Cael Carlson and Michial Foy are all plenty capable of wrestling above their seeds. Even Sebas Swiggum can win a wrestleback match at 157. That's an extra half-point, at the very least.
Where Minnesota Can Lose Points: Jakob Bergeland at the 5-seed, if that holds, would put him up against Chad Red in the quarterfinals, then potentially both Parker Filius and either Joey Zargo or Dylan Duncan in the wrestlebacks. This is a stacked weight class, so holding that fifth-place projection will not be easy.
Bailee O'Reilly at the 6-seed at 174 could be a dangerous spot, too. Puts him up against Gerrit Nijenhuis in the wrestlebacks, if all the seeds hold. O'Reilly beat Nijenhuis in the regular season, but it's still a dangerous matchup.
RUTGERS
Projected pre-seed team points: 41
Where Rutgers Can Score More: If the seeds hold, Sebastian Rivera could see Jaydin Eierman in the semifinals at 141 (that also means Rivera beats Stevan Micic in the quarters). If Rivera-Eierman happens, the whole world will stop to watch. A win for Rivera, the 3-seed, is entirely possible, and means more points, of course.
John Poznanski, a returning fourth-place finisher at last year's NCAA Championships, is the 7-seed at 184. That means, technically, he's supposed to go 2-2 and wrestle for, well, seventh. A third-place finish this weekend isn't an unreasonable thought.
There's also a scenario where Mike Van Brill, the 6-seed at 149, makes a run through the wrestlebacks and finishes third or fourth. Also have a feeling Boone McDermott could be a landmine at 285.
Where Rutgers Can Lose Points: There are three Rugers wrestlers in the 8-9 matchups. The losers of those matchups are, technically, projected to go 0-2. It would not be great for Rutgers if they went 0-3 in those matchups.
PURDUE
Projected pre-seed team points: 40
Where Purdue Can Score More: Devin Schroder is a two-time Big Ten finalist, yet is seeded fifth. Kendall Coleman has also previously been to the Big Ten finals, but is seeded fourth. Max Lyon went 2-2 at last year's NCAA Championships, but is seeded 13th. You see where we're going with this - those guys are all capable.
Additionally, Matt Ramos, the 9-seed at 133, and Gerrit Nijenhuis, the 7-seed at 174, could both be landmines. Same with Parker Filius at 141. There's a path for him to reach the top six (but also a scenario where he goes 0-2, so stay tuned).
Where Purdue Can Lose Points: If Schroder loses to Michigan's Nick Suriano in the semifinals, he could see any combination of Eric Barnett, Drake Ayala, Michael DeAugustino or Drew Hildebrandt in the wrestlebacks. Additionally, if he loses to Malik for the first time ever, he could see Pat McKee in the wrestlebacks.
It's not unreasonable to think Kendall Coleman loses to Peyton Robb in the quarterfinals at 157 and maybe even falls to the seventh-place match, depending on who he sees in the wrestlebacks. That's a sneaky fun weight.
ILLINOIS
Projected pre-seed team points: 27
Where Illinois Can Score More: Technically speaking, Dylan Duncan at the 9-spot at 141 is Illinois playing with house money. If he beats Zargo in the first-round, he gets Nick Lee, which is tough, but even a loss there drops him to face either Tal Shahar or D'Emilio. Win there, boom, in the top eight. Points! If he loses to Zargo, he still likely gets either D'Emilio or Tal Shahar. Win there, boom, in the top eight. Points!
Kanzler is in the same boat at 149. DJ Shannon has a first-round upset opportunity at 174. Could Zac Braunagel make a run through the wrestlebacks or even upset Abe Assad in the first-round at 184? What about Luke Luffman out-peforming his 9-seed at 285?
There are some possibilities here.
Where Illinois Can Lose Points: Let's say Lucas Byrd loses to Austin DeSanto in the semifinals. No big deal. But in the consolation semifinals, he could have either Ragusin or Foley. He's beaten Ragusin, but both guys will be tough matches. If he loses there, he drops to the fifth-place match as the 3-seed, which would be less-than-ideal.
INDIANA
Projected pre-seed team points: 9.5
Where Indiana Can Score More: Wouldn't be surprised to see Brock Hudkins, the 6-seed, wrestle his way into the third-place match at 133. If the seeds hold, he'd see Foley in the consolation semifinals, and he beat Foley already this year. Not sayin', but just sayin'.
Graham Rooks, the 9-seed at 149, could beat Kanzler, the 8-seed. Kanzler won 4-3 in the regular-season. Same could be said for Donnell Washington, the 9-seed at 184, against Kyle Cochran, the 8-seed. Cochran only won 3-2 in the regular-season.
Where Indiana Can Lose Points: Hudkins still has to beat Kyle Burwick in the first-round, and a potential loss to Chris Cannon in the wrestlebacks would send him to the seventh-place match. As the 6-seed, that would be less-than-ideal.
MARYLAND
Projected pre-seed team points: 5
Where Maryland Can Score More: What if King Sandoval throws a headlock and beats Lucas Byrd in the first-round at 133? Or Dom Solis beats Troy Fisher in the first-round at 174? Or Cochran puts his cape on and makes a run to the top-six as the 8-seed? Or Jaron Smith re-conjures some magic as the 11-seed and finishes fifth?
What if?
Where Maryland Can Lose Points: Pretty hard to lose 5 projected team points. Here's hoping they do not.
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