The championship round of 16 will be wrestled at 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. tonight. Wrestling on Friday will include the championship quarterfinals (2 p.m.) and semifinals (8 p.m.), along with the first two rounds of consolation. The consolation quarterfinals and semifinals will start at 9 a.m. on Saturday, with the dual meets for first and third place taking place at 1 p.m.
Below are the opening round bouts.
Thursday 6 p.m.
No. 48 Cumberland Valley (1st place District 3) vs. North Allegheny (3rd place District 7)
Mifflin County (1st place District 6) vs. Parkland (2nd place District 11)
Jersey Shore (1st place District 4) vs. No. 30 Belle Vernon (2nd place District 7)
No. 46 Boyertown (1st place District 1) vs. St. Mary's (1st place District 9)
Thursday 8 p.m.
No. 10 Bethlehem Catholic (1st place District 11) vs. Scranton (1st place District 2)
LaSalle College (1st place District 12) vs. Central Dauphin (2nd place District 3)
General McLane (1st place District 10) vs. Council Rock South (2nd place District 1)
No. 7 Franklin Regional (1st place District 7) vs. Spring-Ford (3rd place District 1)
The most intriguing first round bout takes place in the upper quarter of the bracket between nationally ranked Cumberland Valley and North Allegheny. It is also a rematch of an first round match from last year, one in which North Allegheny upset nationally ranked Cumberland Valley 29-28; the teams would also meet in the consolation semifinal, with Cumberland Valley winning that one 31-28. Just to advance to the state tournament, North Allegheny had to upset nationally ranked Greater Latrobe in the District 7 consolation final, winning that dual meet 35-29.
In analyzing this dual meet, it should be noted that Cumberland Valley is a very flexible team in terms of how they distribute their lineup, in terms of weigh-in strategy and/or "bumping" of wrestlers. This flexibility makes it a hard dual meet to analyze, and also gives the Eagles more possible scenarios to generate a dual meet victory. Both their 106 and 113 starters can make the 106 weight class -- returning state qualifier Will Kaldes and freshman Russ Zimmerman. Both their 120 and 126 starters can make the 120 weight class -- sophomores Jake Barrick and Wyatt Long, Long was a go-to-state match loser last year.
The primary starters at 145 and 152, freshman Quentin Milliken and No. 7 Patrick Duggan have been bumped up a weight class in some dual meets; senior Ryan Wolf fills in at 145 in those scenarios, while junior Jacob Schalles is the normal starter at 160. The flexibility of the upper-weights is primarily based on returning state qualifier at 285 pounds, Jackson Standford, also weighing in at 220 pounds in some dual meets.
North Allegheny has slightly less flexibility, but has it in the opening weight class and the back three weight classes. The Tigers' starters at 106 and 113 have both been down at 106 during different points of the season; while the 195 and 220 have been both at 195, with their 285 pound wrestler being a true 220. Within those five wrestlers, the "core piece" is returning state qualifier Zach Smith, a senior who placed at the Super 32 Challenge this fall.
Other key wrestlers for Cumberland Valley include sophomore Cal Reichart (132), fourth in the region last season; junior Felix Belga (138/145), who was a silver medalist in the Disney All-Star divison; and junior Trenton Cook (170), also fourth at regionals last season. Two North Allegheny wrestlers in addition to Smith qualified for the state tournament last year -- sophomore Luke Landefeld (126) and senior Clay Byerley (182). Four sophomores made the regional tournament last season: Zach Stedeford (120); sophomore Jake Hinkson (132), who finished in the top six; A.J. Boeh (138); and Jake Woodley (160), a Cadet freestyle All-American.
The winner of this match is most likely going to advance to the team state semifinal in the upper bracket, though the match with the winner of a dual meet between Parkland and Mifflin County is not a "freebie". In last year's match between Parkland and the District 6 champion (Central Mountain), the Trojans earned a narrow escape, winning 33-27.
Parkland returns a pair of state placers, junior Jacob Lizak (126) and senior Omar Haddad (220); while Mifflin County has three juniors that qualified for state last year: No. 5 Hayden Hidlay (145), Noah Stewart (160), and Trey Hartsock (195). Both teams competed in the Powerade in late December and finished in the second quartile in the standings, with Mifflin County holding an eight point advantage.
The semifinal opponent for the winner of the Cumberland Valley vs. North Allegheny opening round match is almost assuredly going to be the winner of a quarterfinal bout between nationally ranked teams, Belle Vernon and Boyertown.
The 30th ranked Leopards are led by returning state qualifiers, No. 11 Jared Verkleeren (145) and Austin Bell (170). Five other wrestlers advanced to the regional level last year: Jacob Dunlop (106), Mitch Hartman (138), Derek Verkleeren (152), Milton Kobaly (182), and Billy Korber (220/285); Hartman finished in the top six of the region, while Korber was fourth (three qualify for state). Another key contributor is freshman Zach Hartman (120), who placed third at the Powerade.
The 46th ranked Bears are led by the national No. 1 Jordan Wood (220), along with two other returning state qualifiers: Jakob Campbell (106) and Gregg Harvey (182). Two other wrestlers made it to the regional level last year, Garrett Mauger (120) and Lucas Miller (126). A couple other wrestlers meriting note are sophomore David Campbell (113) and Tommy Killoran (285); Killoran having placed in all three major individual bracket event Boyertown has entered this year.
In what should be a close dual meet, the biggest head-on match is likely to come at 106 between Dunlop and Jakob Campbell; the Bears cannot flex with Matt Wilde entering at 106, with bumping the other lower weight starters up one weight in this match. A potential deciding factor in this dual meet will be the relative bonus point accrual of middle-weights for Belle Vernon versus the upper-weights for Boyertown.
Down in the lower half of the draw, all signs point to a semifinal clash between No. 7 Franklin Regional and No. 10 Bethlehem Catholic, a battle of the returning state champions in Pennsylvania. Last year Franklin Regional swept titles in this 3A classification; while the Hawks swept titles in 2A, and opted to compete up in 3A this year. To most observers this is the de facto state title match, especially if the deeper and more balanced Bethlehem Catholic squad emerges victorious.
As has been mentioned ad nauseam this season, the Panthers have six superstar wrestlers, with the rest of the lineup containing mostly question marks. Nationally ranked wrestlers are No. 6 Devin Brown (113), No. 1 Spencer Lee (120), No. 15 Gus Solomon (126), No. 1 Michael Kemerer (145), No. 6 Josh Maruca (152), and No. 2 Josh Shields (160). With those six penciled in for wins, in many cases with bonus points, during most dual meets -- Franklin Regional just has to find one more win to take home the dual meet. Against high-end teams that can be the struggle. The most likely source for that win is going to be senior Dom Giannangelli (138), who was top six in the regional tournament; they also have a solid 285 in Jake Pickup.
However, Bethlehem Catholic presents multiple problems for the Panthers. First and foremost, they are a very talented team with quality splashed throughout the lineup. Secondly the Hawks can directly take on those nationally ranked wrestlers with some talent of their own. Luke Karam, ranked No. 8 nationally at 126 pounds, would be considered a favorite to beat Solomon in a very low-scoring bout. State champion Jake Riegel wrestles at 120 pounds; while he isn't going to even maintain contact with Lee, it does create some risk if Franklin Regional chooses to bump Brown, Lee, and Solomon. In addition, bumping Solomon puts him on a different talented wrestler, returning state placer Joey Gould (132).
In the opening two weight classes, the Hawks start junior Sean Reddington and sophomore Luke Carty. Reddington is likely to win against Franklin Regional, while Carty would be favored if the Panthers flexed Devin Brown out of the weight class. Bethlehem Catholic also has returning state placer Stephen Maloney (138) to take on Giannangelli, which is a tossup bout, making the task for Franklin Regional that much harder; along with returning state placer Mike Labriola (145/152), who can hold Kemerer or Maruca to a potential regular decision.
In the upper half of the lineup, the Hawks have returning state qualifier Adam Soldridge (160/170) as well as two-time state placer Andrew Dunn (220), who is ranked No. 6 nationally. From a dual meet strategy standpoint, it would behoove Bethlehem Catholic to get Soldridge away from Shields.
The most likely outcome of this semifinal dual meet is that Bethlehem Catholic wins eight weight class, and scores a victory by about ten points. Franklin Regional does have a couple of paths for victory, and it might take a blend of these. The first is the most obvious, and least creative: wrestling it straight up, score the swing match victories at 126 and 138, while somehow managing to win out on bonus points in a 7-7 dual meet. The second involves a couple of different back half of the lineup scenarios: somehow Bethlehem Catholic ends up with Soldridge going against Shields, and/or some sort of upset up top (be it at 182 or 220/285 -- wherever Dunn isn't).
Looking ahead to the state championship match:
If Bethlehem Catholic clears Franklin Regional, they are strong favorites to win the state title.
If Franklin Regional upsets Bethlehem Catholic (despite the rankings having the Panthers above), the finals match is an open question.
The prediction from this corner is that Belle Vernon clears the top half of the draw.
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