But their four returning NCAA champs have had a combined 13 losses this season and OSU lost two dual meets to Minnesota. At 141 pounds, their lineup went without 2005 fourth-place finisher Daniel Frishkorn since the mid-season, a very talented, if streaky, wrestler.
So the question arises: Has OSU faltered this season? While I don't think winning their fourth straight NCAA title is a lock, even with everything that's gone down so far, I'd say the answer is "no."
OSU had an amazing tourney last year. Just stunning. Most of the time, even the championship team has ups and downs, but for the 2005 Cowboys, it was just about all ups. They wrestled great and, just as important, they got help from other teams. For example, 165-pound Johny Hendricks had lost twice to Troy Letters during the regular season and 197-pound Jake Rosholt had lost twice to Jon Trenge. But thanks to Iowa's Mark Perry upsetting Letters and UNI's Sean Stender upsetting Trenge, these two Cowboys didn't have to solve the riddle of these opponents in order to win their titles.
Nathan Morgan (Johnnie Johnson)
The thing to remember is that even if the Cowboys had gone 0-5 in the finals last year instead of 5-0, perhaps some of their individual losses this year would seem less surprising, but they still would have entered this season as favorites to win No. 34 in March. Losing big individual match-ups during the regular season creates a lot of excitement and chatter by wrestling enthusiasts, but that doesn't mean that those wrestlers aren't still going to score a ton of points at the big show -- even if it's a few places lower than they got last year.
John Smith doesn't put his schedule together to go undefeated. The Cowboys have taken their lumps, both individually and as a team, but have wrestled very well. Moreover, unlike many seasons in the 90s where Oklahoma State teams would excel in the regular season and fade come tourney time, John Smith has had his teams peaking in March for the last three years.
This season, OSU fans have had to see some of their stars suffer disappointments mainly because of two reasons.
1. The emergence of new young talents like Dustin Schlatter and Wynn Michalak.
2. A wrestler who consistently lost to a Cowboy star last year has made some adjustments and turned the corner (Cole Konrad).
OSU started the season with four No. 1-ranked wrestlers, and even though the results of John Smith's brutal schedule have dropped them to 2-2-4-2, they still have plenty of firepower. Moreover, their qualifiers who aren't returning champs (Coleman Scott, Nathan Morgan, Kevin Ward, Brandon Mason and Rusty Blackmon) have rankings that suggest a hefty team-point compliment.
Although Minnesota had beaten Oklahoma State twice in dual meets, up until this past weekend, the Cowboys appeared to be a stronger tournament team. That things are roughly about equal now is more the result of Minnesota stepping up than OSU having any kind of misstep. OSU had a very good Big 12 Championships. They qualified nine for the big show, had seven finalists and four champs.
But with Gophers C.P. Schlatter, Matt Nagel, and Roger Kish beating a grand total of five, top-ten wrestlers ranked ahead of them, they all did wonders for their individual rankings. Moreover, Manuel Rivera and Gabriel Dretsch both avenged losses from earlier in the season and moved up as well.
Awarding placement and advancement points (i.e. no bonus points or pigtail advancement points) based on the current rankings, here are the projected results between the Cowboys and the Golden Gophers (Editor's Note: RevWrestling.com's rankings were not used because they were compiled prior to the conference tournaments)
AWN = OSU 94.5, MN 87
WIN = OSU 87, MN 96
NWCA = OSU 86.5, MN 91.5
But again, that OSU no longer appears to be a lock to run away with No. 4 in a row doesn't reflect any kind of significant underperformance. They haven't dropped as much as Minnesota has risen. And, as much as we all know that anything can happen, it would appear that we are in for a dogfight.
John Smith
As mentioned earlier, John Smith puts together a very tough schedule. On the one hand, this is beneficial as it pits his wrestlers against top competition all season long, thus creating fewer potential surprises the post-season. Smith is a brilliant tactician and strategist and it's very difficult not to imagine his wrestlers being totally prepared for any rematch -- won or lost the first go-round. On the other hand, there is an undeniable psychological component that goes with accumulating a number of losses over the course of a wrestling season. It takes its toll on your confidence and you start to think you're not unbeatable -- even if you're just a fan of the team.
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