Each year the NCAA tournament gains more visibility and coverage. Sportsbooks have responded by tightening the lines they offer, making it increasingly tougher to gain an advantage in the wagering world. However, we've been dealt some interesting seeds this year including an unseeded two-time champ. That could make for some very big lines and prosperous betting opportunities!
I'm here to help you identify some of those winning plays, but remember, I'm in no way responsible for what you bet, or if you bet. Think twice before laying your mortgage on the field at 141 pounds. This is for fun, so if you can't afford to pay, don't play.
For the newcomers, here's how it usually works:
A few numbers for thought before we break down the weight classes (all data is since the 2003 NCAA tournament):
On to the breakdown of this year's weight classes and my personal (pre-official lines):
125: Alan Waters of Missouri enters the tournament with an unblemished record and top seed for the second time in his career. His first attempt from that spot did not result in a title, and there are a few wrestlers capable of keeping him from gold this time around. Nahshon Garrett will look to improve on last year's runner-up finish, likely needing a win over Joey Dance or Thomas Gilman to return to the elevated mat. Big Ten champ Nathan Tomasello nabs the four seed and joins returning two-time (unseeded) champ Jesse Delgado for a chance to take out Waters up top.
The Lines: Waters +140, Garrett +170, Delgado +375, Field +350
The Play: Needless to say this weight is stacked! Gilman and Dance are both capable, but I don't think either gets through Garrett on our bottom side. The top side of the bracket is the wild card here, specifically Delgado. "Muddy" Waters cannot be happy to see him in his quarter. If Delgado's health/cardio has improved slightly from the Big Tens, I like him to avenge some losses and gain his third title. He appears to have Garrett's number and should offer some great value coming in unseeded. Let's see if he's placed individually or in the Field, and act accordingly from there.
133: The top five seeds here belong to the Big Ten. Chris Dardanes has kept the pack at arms-distance all year. The top seed has yet to take a loss in his senior season, most recently defeating hard-charging Ryan Taylor in the Big Ten finals. A.J. Schopp is the premiere name in a dangerous and numbered field of wrestlers. He has a chance to steal the top seed early.
The Lines: Dardanes +200, Taylor +350, Field +300
The Play: I'm a huge fan of Dardanes' (plural) style and I actually DO NOT see Schopp having enough to steal that top seed. That being said, it is definitely a dangerous matchup and Dardanes has had some close calls this year. The second quarter of the bracket is loaded and whoever survives that mess will give Dardanes all he can handle in the semifinals. The lower half of the bracket will also produce a worthy finals opponent. This all points to the Field and don't be surprised if we see two higher seeds wrestling on Saturday night.
141: That Logan Stieber guy is pretty good. He's the top seed and that shouldn't surprise anyone. Devin Carter is the No. 4 seed and on Stieber's side of the bracket. That might surprise a few people. Mitchell Port and Lavion Mayes round out the top seeds.
The Lines: Logie Bear -2000, Port +400, Field +1500
The Play: If you like a few long shots in your portfolio, here's your opportunity. I was pulling for Port to win the earlier matchup this season to add some drama and anticipation for these finals. It didn't happen, and it won't happen here. I'll save my money and enjoy the fake-bake and arm bars one last time.
149: Returning All-American Drake Houdashelt receives the top seed over returning NCAA champion Jason Tsirtsis of Northwestern. 2014 runner-up Josh Kindig handed Houdashelt his lone blemish of the year and joins David Habat, Brandon Sorensen and fellow unseeded wildcard Hunter Stieber in the field.
The Lines: Houdashelt +125, Tsirtsis +120, Field +450
The Play: There seems to be a theme this year with injury-plagued studs. Enter Hunter Stieber. Newcomer B.J. Clagon defeated Habat in their conference final and has given Tsirtsis two scares this year. Expect another one when they meet in round two. While the Field is certainly tempting, I believe the seeds hold and Tsirtsis repeats last year's win over Houdashelt. Let's take him at even money or better to earn his second title. Best mullet since McIlravy.
157: Speaking of themes, we arrive at the most anticipated weight class of the tournament as we arrive at Dylan Ness. This is not a coincidence. Ness wrestles with a wide-open, no holds-barred style that fans will surely miss. Enter Isaiah Martinez. Our undefeated top seed has shown no fear in clearing out this weight class. Brian Realbuto, James Green and Ian Miller are all capable of preventing a Big Ten rematch.
The Lines: Martinez +120, Realbuto +180, Ness +270, Field +250
The Play: Martinez has been lights out and will fill the void left by Ness rather nicely going forward. His rematch with "Mean" James Green may be the most anticipated bout of the tournament. Meanwhile, Realbuto seems to have slid slightly under the radar with all the fireworks surrounding the Big Ten final. He has a stingy style that has given Ness problems and owns a past win over Martinez in freestyle. He'll be challenged from the quarters on, but I think he comes out on top of this instant classic weight. Watch his line closely.
165: Alex Dieringer has run the table this season and sits atop the bracket. He has all the tools needed to cruise to his second title and he might need them, as Nick Sulzer and Bo Jordan sit on his side of the bracket. Mike Moreno and Isaac Jordan sneak into the No. 2 and No. 3 spots, respectively. Dylan Palacio and Taylor Walsh are two of the most dangerous wrestlers in the sport.
The Lines: AD -300, Field +550
The Play: Watch for the early match of the tournament between Palacio and Bo. That should stir up the pot reeeeal nice! Dieringer is the safe play, but what fun is that?! I'll throw a little on the Field, and hope Sulzer can pull the upset to earn Virginia's first title. Homer status alive and well!
174: Robert Kokesh has pulled away from his Big Ten counterparts and finds himself as yet another undefeated top seed. He'll let Matt Brown, Mike Evans and Logan Storley butt heads down below. John Eblen, Blaise Butler and Tyler Wilps headline a talented field in the upper bracket.
The Lines: Kokesh +150, Matt Brown +220, Field +200
The Play: Kokesh might be the only guy in the country happy with the seeding committee. It seems every year for the past ten years this has been a round-robin between him, Brown, Evans and Storley. All four have had their taste of victory at one time or another. How do you pick one to go out on top? The simple answer is: you don't. I like a few ACC wrestlers to bust this bracket and send the big four to settle things one last time in the consolation rounds. Let's look for who the Field includes and take another small chance here.
184: What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. Something Cornell's super soph Gabe Dean doesn't need to be told. He earns the top seed after overcoming some early setbacks in Sin City. The next tier includes five or six wrestlers that can all scrap and take advantage if Dean stumbles.
The Lines: Dean even, Field +150
The Play: Dean showed early in the season that he is capable of losing to somebody not named Ed Ruth. He also has one of the tougher roads to a title for a top seed. That being said, he really hasn't been touched in 2015. This is an underrated field but I like Dean to earn his first of a few titles for the Big Red. I may even lay some odds if necessary.
197: Are we sure 157 pounds is the most anticipated weight class of the tournament? J'den Cox returns for his second title in as many years. He's the top seed and will be on the opposite side of the bracket from Morgan McIntosh and Kyven Gadson. Scott Schiller and Kyle Snyder will lock horns for the privilege of meeting Cox in the semifinals.
The Lines: Cox +110, McIntosh +250, Field +225
The Play: This may be the deepest field, so if the odds are right nobody could fault you for going that route. The odds on Cox will be less favorable than last year and he'll have his hands full in both the semifinals and finals. However, I think he rises to the occasion again to edge out Snyder and McIntosh in dramatic fashion. It might even clinch a team title.
285: It seems like snooze fest heavyweight brackets are a thing of the past as long as Nick Gwiazdowski and Mike McMullan are here to help. The top two seeds will take on Hawkeye big man Bobby Telford and Wisconsin's Connor Medbery in the field.
The Lines: Gwiz even, McMullan +200, Field +300
The Play: The No. 1 ranking for this weight has changed hands a few times this season, but I think we're looking at a two-pony race. Gwiz and McMullan are both versatile and offensive big boys and should be able to make their way to ESPN primetime for a rematch of the All-Star Classic. McMullan found an answer in that match and I think he squeaks by again to end his career with a title for Northwestern. I like him +200 or better.
Official lines should be available at your online sportsbook midweek (Wednesday) and individual lines are posted before the semifinals and finals in case you would like to hedge your bets ... or double down.
Good luck and enjoy the winnings!
Follow Brian Muir on Twitter at @MuirOrLess.
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