For the newcomers, here's how it usually works:
A few numbers for thought before we break down the weight classes (all data is since the 2003 NCAA tournament):
A winning Field bet usually pays well. Steve Bosak belonged to the 184-pound field last year that was offered at +1450 ... Let that sink in ... Got it? OK. Find the Field bet you like, and you might find your NCAA tournament expenses paid. You might also cover your flights, lodging, drinks, and more Des Moines corn than you can handle.
On to this year's weight classes and my personal (pre-official) lines:
125: Alan Waters is undefeated and is rightfully your top seed. The round-robin between Matt McDonough-Nico Megaludis-Jesse Delgado had been following ro-sham-bo rules until Delgado broke format at last weekend's Big Ten tournament. ACC champ Jarrod Garnett owns a win over Delgado and should join Megaludis, Nahshon Garrett and a few more capable ACC wrestlers in the field. Tempting.
The lines: Waters +135, Delgado +150, McDonough +200, Field +450
The play: McDonough's third title looks like a long shot at this point, but it's unwise to count him out, especially in his own backyard. "Dirty" Waters and Delgado have been great but if the field comes in any better than +450, it could be a nice value bet to take a chance on a pretty wide-open weight class at this point. I like the field and/or McDonough.
133: Logan Stieber proved two weekends ago at the Big Tens that he's still a notch above Tony Ramos, though the Iowa wrestler has undoubtedly closed the gap by showing an ability to escape from bottom. Tyler Graff stuck with Ramos to the end at Big Tens and Chris Dardanes is the only wrestler in the bracket who owns a win over the top seed. They will join A.J. Schopp, Jon Morrison, and a game Scotti Sentes in the field.
The lines: Stieber -250, Ramos +200, Field +1450
The play: I think Logan Stieber is the biggest "lock" to win a title behind Ed Ruth. This Field line will be high, but stay away from it if you like money. Ramos has a reasonable chance to take the title and will be charged in front of a Hawkeye-heavy crowd. But ... he also has a tough lower bracket and a chance to be upset before the final, while Stieber does not. If Stieber comes in any lower than -250, bet him hard. Even with the black & gold factor, the Buckeye is still one notch above.
141: The "other" Stieber doesn't get as much recognition as his older sibling, but he has been just about as impressive this season and is (somewhat surprisingly) your top seed. Kendric Maple, the current Usain Bolt of college wrestling, hasn't really been touched either. Returning All-American Michael Mangrum has previous wins over the top seed, including one by fall in last year's medal round. He will enter a field with Mitchell Port, Evan Henderson and Citadel's "Ugi" ... by way of Mongolia. An impressive group that will try to play spoiler to a finals matchup of undefeated wrestlers.
The lines: Stieber "even," Maple -150, Field +700
The play: Maple or Stieber? Every wrestling fan has been looking forward to watching this collision in Des Moines since early December. I think Maple has been very slightly more impressive and I like him to win. This is a field to keep an eye on though and Nick Dardanes should give Hunter all he can manage in the quarters. I'll take Maple at -150 and if he comes in closer to even money, even better.
149: Jordan Oliver is your top seed. Jason Chamberlain and Donnie Vinson have each avenged their only losses for the year. Dylan "Honey Badger" Ness shook off some early season injury concerns to make Oliver look human and capture the Big Ten title in dramatic fashion. He'll join Steve Santos, Scott Sakaguchi, Jake Sueflohn, Nick Brascetta and Andrew Alton in the field. They can all scrap.
The lines: Oliver -185, Chamberlain +200, Vinson +350, Field +500
The play: JO dominated his way to one title and has come a hair away from winning two more. It's not hard to imagine him in a position to be wrestling for his fourth title this weekend and he has absolutely dominated at 149 pounds. That being said, this weight class offers more than meets the eye and Oliver will be harder pressed than you think to end his career atop the podium. Chamberlain is great on his feet and has a motor. Vinson has shown he's capable of big things at the dance and is relentless on top. Don't be surprised if you see Ness earn his own line from the sixth seed. If so, it will change the field line dramatically. Ness is the most dangerous wrestler in the country and puts himself in bad positions to earn rewards like nobody else, much like the honey badger. Many will take Oliver but if Ness is in the field, I like it. However, I'd urge you to think twice before touching a weight class that includes the honey badger. Might be best to leave this one alone unless the lines come in substantially different.
157: Jason Welch earns the top seed after a late rally in the Big Ten final to avenge his lone loss of the year against "Mean" James Green. Derek St. John has had Welch's number in the past and is the highest returning placer. The field is deep and STACKED.
The lines: Welch +140, DSJ +120, Field +325
The play: Did I say Kendric Maple was the current Usain Bolt of college wrestling? I may have meant James Green. The guy is basically a Jordan Burroughs clone (including the south Jersey origin). It will be interesting to see if he is included in the field or gets his own line. That will be an important distinction to follow and will obviously move things accordingly. This is one of two weight classes that we've been preaching as a sure-fire field bet on the podcast all season. That has not changed. DSJ is actually my pick to win the weight class, but upsets will happen here and the field has too much value to ignore. I may combine a bet on the field with a DSJ bet.
... We'll follow suit and save 165 for last ...
174: Has there ever been a weight class this close between the 1-8 seeds in NCAA history? Not while I've been around. Chris Perry is your one seed and has taken losses by major decision and fall this season. Logan Storley took the baton shortly, before dropping two matches at his conference tourney. Mike Evans doesn't lose in Iowa and has the best 'stache in the game. Matt Brown, Josh Asper, Robert Kokesh, Jordan Blanton and Nick Heflin are all capable of winning this weight class on their given day.
The lines: Perry +160, Brown +225, Evans +225, Field +200
The play: You see where I'm going with this. Evans is actually my pick to win, but this is the one weight class where I would probably take the field for even money. It will most likely pay a much better return than that. Pay attention to who it includes, but ultimately you want this field. Seeds will not hold here.
184: Ed "The Truuuuuuth" Ruth comes in top seed. Shocker. He hasn't been truly tested in two full seasons now. Ben Bennett is an undefeated three-time All-American but had some close calls at his conference tournament. Strange seeding here between Robert Hamlin and returning champ Steve Bosak considering their EIWA tournament, but that's been covered elsewhere. Hamlin and Kevin Steinhaus have both kept Ruth from running up the score.
The lines: Ruth -285, Bennett +250, Bosak +250, Field +950
The play: Ruth is your biggest favorite to win his weight class as mentioned earlier and you'll have to pay up to take him. Keep an eye on that semi-final matchup with Bosak, though. I have a strange feeling about that one. The health status of Hamlin and the possible inclusion of Bosak could change this field line quite a bit. If Hamlin is healthy and Bosak is in the field, I'll take it. If not, I'll probably take a chance on Bosak to upset Ruth in the semis and repeat as champ. Nobody is a lock, not even The Truth.
197: Dustin Kilgore has a nickname but he doesn't need it. This Golden Flash has put together arguably the most dominant season of any wrestler in the tournament. Also, his 'stache status is surpassed only by Evans. Quentin Wright (the other most dangerous wrestler in the country) is also officially undefeated, though he was pinned by Matt Wilps at the All-Star classic. Wright returned the favor to Wilps in their dual. Alfonso Hernandez, Taylor Meeks, Kyven Gadson and Scott Schiller join Wilps to round out the weight class for our field.
The lines: Kilgore -175, Wright +150, Field +1500
The play: Let's steer clear from the field and hope the battle of 2010 NCAA champs takes place in the final. Wright always wrestles his best when the lights are on and seems to win with technique we were all taught at the REC level. But this is a classic battle between rock and scissor. What beats rock? Nothing beats rock. Kilgore looks to be just a little too solid for Q. I'll give up the odds and put my money on him while enjoying the most exciting match of the tournament.
285: Dom Bradley comes in at the top of the bracket after his win over defending NCAA champ Tony Nelson earlier in the year. He has one loss this season to Alan "Z" Gelogaev. Z is always a threat and puts up more points than any big man since Stephen Neal. Chad Hanke, Bobby Telford and Mike McMullan are some notable names in the field.
The lines: Bradley "even," Nelson +110, Gelogaev +165, Field +1150
The play: Yet another weight class with a rock-paper-scissor scenario ... Z>Bradley>Nelson>Z. I like Nelson to win but he is the slight underdog since he has to pass both Z and Bradley. Never count Z out. If you're looking for some excitement with your choice, he will deliver. I like seeds to hold until the final and I like Nelson to repeat at anything better than even money.
Drum roll ...
165: Who's at this weight class again? Oh yeah ... the two best wrestlers in NCAA ... That's, right! Kyle Dake is going for "4-for-4-at-4" while David Taylor is looking to put the block on and make a case for better overall career of the two. Headlining the field will be Tyler Caldwell and Peter Yates. Caldwell has two head-scratching losses as well as a loss to each of the big two. Yates avenged his only loss of the season and is healthy sized at the weight.
The lines: Dake -135, Taylor +110, Field +1500
The play: Our top two seeds will both have dangerous semi matchups but let's be serious, we're looking at a two horse race here. This is the most anticipated match in NCAA history. Why talk about anything else? The Magic Man seemed to lose focus for a split second in their Scuffle match. That's one split second too much against Kid Dynamite. The winning formula to take out the three-time champ may very well be beating him at his own game with tight defense and a riding advantage. DT looks to be the only wrestler in the country capable of executing such a game plan. My take: If Taylor couldn't do it in January, how's he going to do it when the lights are on in March? Enjoy the atmosphere, the hype and the match, and take Dake to accomplish something that will NEVER be duplicated.
Official lines are usually out by mid-week (Wednesday) and individual finals lines are released the day of. Sometimes that's a good way to hedge your action or double-up if you like.
Bet with your head and not your emotions. Good luck and enjoy the winnings!
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