Seeing the No. 1 team in the country lose certainly opens up the rankings for a debate. Not just between the incumbent No. 1 and the team that beat the No. 1, but also the current No. 2 (Oak Park River Forest, Ill.). Keep in mind the mission of the Fab 50 national team rankings. The intent is to use retrospective data, results from tournaments and dual meets, to assess how teams look prospectively (i.e. going forward). Three further points: (1) the rankings have to account for both dual meet and tournament performance potential (2) the rankings should reflect how each team can perform with their best personnel that will be available to them going forward (3) the rankings should also reflect the body of work each team has amassed during the season-to-date.
Let's analyze the lineup for each team in question, based on their results to date:
106: Both OPRF and Graham have a wrestler that is superior to the wrestler which Blair possesses. Anthony Madrigal (OPRF) is ranked around 15th nationally, and Justin Stickley (Graham) falls outside the national rankings; while Matthew Vinci (Blair) would not be part of any rankings conversation.
113: All three teams have a nationally ranked wrestler. Jason Renteria (OPRF) is ranked inside the top five, Mitch Moore (Graham) is inside the top ten, and Zach Sherman (Blair) fits in the back part of the rankings. At the Ironman, Moore was the champion with a 6-1 win over Renteria in the final; however, at the Super 32, Moore went 2-2 in matches against nationally ranked wrestlers -- wins over Rivera and Cray, losses to Vega and Baughman. One of the obvious reasons we are going through this intellectual exercise is that Sherman upset Moore 4-2 in the dual meet.
During this season, Sherman finished eighth at the Ironman going 1-3 against nationally ranked wrestlers (split matches with Mattox, lost to Brown, and lost to Hoskins); he then finished fourth at the Beast, losing to nationally ranked Paetzell and un-ranked Alec Kelly. Renteria was undefeated at The Clash and runner-up at Ironman, and beat fellow top five ranked wrestler Gomez at the Preseason Nationals.
120: All three teams have relatively similar wrestlers, though the nationally ranked wrestlers are on the roster of OPRF (Alex Madrigal) and Graham (Eli Stickley); Requir van der Merwe (Blair) is not nationally ranked. It is interesting that over the last two seasons, Stickley placed both years at the Ironman (3rd/2nd), van der Merwe failed to place, and yet van der Merwe beat Stickley both years in the dual meet. This seems to be a matchup specific thing, as peripheral performances by each wrestler (i.e. Stickley at Super 32 and van der Merwe at the Beast in each year) also suggest Stickley to be the superior wrestler. Madrigal has made extreme growth as a wrestler over the last year, turning from a varsity debutant to a nationally ranked wrestler (placed 6th at Ironman, undefeated at The Clash).
126: Both Graham and OPRF have a wrestler that is superior to the wrestler which Blair possesses. Eli Seipel (Graham) is ranked around 15th nationally, and Gabe Townsell (OPRF) is just outside the rankings; while the Blair starter, whether it's Andrew Merola or Andrew Monohan would not be part of any rankings conversation.
132: Both Blair and Graham have a wrestler that is superior to the wrestler which OPRF possesses. Charles Tucker (Blair) is ranked inside the top ten, Rocky Jordan (Graham) is just outside the top ten, while Jamie Hernandez (OPRF) would not be part of any rankings conversation. Jordan beat Tucker at the Ironman by 6-4 decision, but Tucker has the greater resume. In the dual meet, Tucker did not wrestler, and Jordan upended Monahan by 7-2 decision.
138: Matthew Kolodzik (Blair) is a top five national wrestler at the weight class, and is better than the wrestler that either Graham or OPRF possess. Graham brings to the table freshman Ryan Thomas, who is very talented but was majored by Kolodzik in the dual meet; while OPRF has Savonne Bennette, a senior and returning state qualifier.
145: Larry Early (OPRF) is a top five national wrestler at the weight class, and is better than the wrestler that either Graham or Blair possesses. Early was out of the OPRF lineup at the Walsh Ironman, and returned to the lineup at The Clash; his backup was 2-2 at the Ironman, making the second day, but that's a major downgrade from a likely weight class runner-up. Brent Moore (Graham) and Michael Monica (Blair) have split matches this season. Moore won at the Ironman on the way to placing fourth, while Monica was a match short of placing; Monica flipped the outcome in the dual meet, winning a 7-3 decision that is probably more reflective of the head-on matchup.
152: All three teams have a nationally elite wrestler at the weight class. Isaiah White (OPRF) and Jordan Kutler (Blair) are inside the top five, while Kyle Lawson (Graham) is inside the top fifteen. White won the Ironman, including a 3-1 win over Lawson in the quarterfinal; while Kutler was third at the Ironman, but earned an 8-2 win over Lawson in the dual meet. Lawson placed seventh at the Ironman.
160: Alex Marinelli (Graham) is ranked first in the nation at present in this weight class, and upended former Blair wrestler Mason Manville 3-1 in overtime in the Ironman final. Marinelli beat the new Blair starter, Brandon Dallavia, by 14-7 decision in the dual meet. Dallavia placed third in the 170 pound weight class at the Ironman, and is ranked around fifth nationally in his new weight class. OPRF has natonally ranked Matthew Rundell in this weight class, who is ranked between 15th and 20th at the present time.
170: Kamal Bey (OPRF) is clearly ahead of the starter that either Graham or Blair possesses. Bey is ranked within the top ten, after finishing second at the Ironman; while Garrett Jordan (6th at the Ironman) and Peter Bearse (8th at the Beast down at 160) do not fit into a national rankings conversation. Jordan squeezing out a placement finish at the Ironman was key to Graham's finish; however, that one placement is one of the least sustainable aspects of the Ironman performance (more consistently is a match or two short of placement).
The replacement for Dallavia in the Blair lineup (Dallavia swaps into Manville's slot) is Bearse. This trade of Bearse for Dallavia is the mirror of OPRF getting Early and taking out their backup at 145, i.e. a 20 point swing. In the dual meet on Saturday, Jordan beat Bearse by 5-2 decision.
182: Chase Singletary (Blair) is a nationally ranked wrestler, presently inside the top 15, while the options for OPRF (Max Metzger) or Graham (Hayden Bronne) are not close to that. Singletary earned a win by fall over Metzger at the Ironman, and a match with Bronne would be similar bonus points, though Blair bumped Singletary up to 195 in the dual meet. A hypothetical bout between Metzger and Bronne would be a toss-up.
195: This weight class is the one of two where the teams are relatively weak, again it's a relative thing. Blair Academy and OPRF wrestlers placed at the Ironman, while the Graham wrestler went 1-2. Neil Putnam (Blair) upended Ben Bergen (OPRF) by 5-2 decision for seventh place, while Kanan Sarver did not place. In the dual meet, Putnam went up a weight class to 220 and secured a major; while Sarver lost 7-1 to Singletary.
220: Blair Academy has the best wrestler of the three in this weight class, obviously, with David Showunmi. The Ironman champion and Junior National freestyle All-American is ranked around tenth nationally. Oak Park River Forest was missing state qualifier Allen Stallings at the Ironman, who would have done anything from win multiple matches to low place. Graham now has returning state placer Josh Couchman, who is up one weight from ideal, and made his debut this past weekend in getting majored by Putnam 12-3.
285: In both bracketed tournaments this year Blair has not entered a 285 pound wrestler, for dual meets they have shifted the lineup to slide Showunmi here. While Jordan over-achieved for Graham at 170 in the Ironman, Adam Lemke-Bell under-achieved in this weight for OPRF, getting pinned twice and exiting the tournament without a win. In competition the week before, Lemke-Bell upended a returning Illinois state placer. The Graham wrestler in this weight class (Dylan Nave) is a relative non-factor.
In dissecting the three rosters, I reach the conclusion that Oak Park River Forest has the most complete team, and should be ranked No. 1 in the nation. They have talented wrestlers in all fourteen weight classes, and can thrive in both a tournament and dual meet setting. A full-strength OPRF lineup scores right around 200 points, if not a few more, at the Walsh Jesuit Ironman.
In the two opening dual meets at The Clash, Oak Park River Forest went 12-2 matches with Pleasant Valley (Iowa) and 11-3 with Simley (Minn.); if not for using back-up wrestlers, those dual meets are 14-0 and 13-1 respectively. Then, the day one bracket final against nationally ranked Shakopee (Minn.) was 12-2 in matches, though it would likely have been 14-0 but for using back-up wrestlers. The day two championship pool was domination more the same. The Huskies went 12-2 in matches with nationally ranked Bettendorf (Iowa) and Carl Sandburg (Ill.), and went 9-5 with Apple Valley (Minn.), likely 10-4 if using Rundell at 160.
The debate for me is more about St. Paris Graham and Blair Academy. In the bracketed tournament format of the Walsh Ironman, St. Paris Graham scored over 200 points, though for analytical purposes one can peg it at 200; while Blair Academy would have been looking at about 170 points with Manville out of the lineup.
While breaking down the dual meet is a little more art than science, since Blair Academy wrestled pretty close to a "base lineup", it hinged on three key outcomes -- all of which went in favor of Blair: the upset at 113, the matchup-specific favorable outcome at 120, and the tossup at 145. That said, Blair Academy did lose the chance to earn a victory at 132 with Tucker out of the lineup.
In conclusion, Graham is the better bracketed tournament team, while Blair Academy might be the better dual meet team. In making this week's determination that Graham should be No. 2, and Blair Academy No. 3, it is my judgment that a hypothetical Graham/OPRF dual meet is more likely to be competitive than a Blair/OPRF dual meet. However, should Blair Academy have a "clean" remainder of the season, they will likely end up No. 2 over St. Paris Graham, as the in-season resume will be much greater.
Notable remaining events for each team:
OPRF:
-Dual meets against nationally ranked Montini Catholic (Ill.) and Marmion Academy (Ill.) on Saturday
-Dual meets against nationally ranked Carl Sandburg (Ill.) and Clovis (Calif.) next Saturday
-host Huskie Invitational two weeks from Saturday
-individual bracket and dual meet state tournament
Graham:
-Dual meet against nationally ranked St. Edward (Ohio) next Saturday
-individual bracket and dual meet state tournament
Blair Academy:
-Geary (Okla.) Invitational this weekend
-Garden State Duals next Saturday, likely to face a nationally ranked team in there
-Dual meet at St. Edward (Ohio) two weeks from Saturday
-Dual meets against Bergen Catholic (N.J.), Wyoming Seminary (Pa.), and Bound Brook (N.J.) the following Saturday
-National Prep Championships
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