Both in terms of lineup analysis and the results of their performance on the mat, Blair has lapped the field. The Buccaneers have eight wrestlers appearing in the weight class rankings, with a couple others being in the proverbial "outside looking in" group. They also were dominant in winning titles at the Ironman, Beast of the East, and POWERade -- tournaments that are ranked among the top four in the nation with respect to their field composition.
When it comes to everyone else, Wyoming Seminary, Pa., started the season ranked second and spent all of the first month in that position. The Blue Knights have three nationally ranked wrestlers, with a couple others being in that proverbial "outside looking in" group. In addition, their squad covers most of the lineup with a credible, accomplished wrestler. During the month of December they were second at the Ironman; slightly underachieved in their second place finish at the Beast, both in terms of being extremely far back from first and being relatively close to third/fourth; and earned a title at the Bethlehem Liberty Holiday Tournament.
However, a second place finish at the Doc Buchanan Invitational placed doubt on that second in the nation position. In that tournament, they finished two points behind Clovis, Calif. Though that margin can be mitigated by an injury default in the final at 182 pounds, a match that No. 1 Eric Morris otherwise wins by decision against No. 20 Adrian Salas. It still would have been just an eight-point victory, with the squads having eight placers each. Furthering doubt was the upset loss, 33-32 against Robinson, Va., the next week at the NHSCA Final Four Festival, even though Wyoming Seminary had two nationally ranked wrestlers out of the lineup and lost two upset results by fall. That same Robinson team won just two matches in the final against Blair.
After the Doc Buchanan, it was St. Edward, Ohio that ascended to the second position, from their season starting position of third. The Eagles presently have five nationally ranked individuals, with only one other really close to a ranking. It is a somewhat top-heavy squad with a couple extreme holes. For the season to date, they placed fourth at the Ironman, though having No. 2 Domenic Abounader in the lineup at 182-pound puts them right even with Wyoming Seminary for second; won a championship at the Dvorak by 35 points over Montini Catholic, a performance that included seven finalists in this top ten in the nation event; and then won the Medina Invitational by 50 points over a pair of top 20 in the nation teams with five champions, and that was without No. 3 Dean Heil in the lineup at 132 pounds (the backup placed sixth).
Skepticism about St. Edward holding the second position comes in the form of a pair of dual meet results from January. First, at the DCC Super Duals, the Eagles won a 23-22 dual meet on criteria against Montini Catholic, Ill., as the squads split the match count 7-7. However, it should be noted that if not for a team point deduction, it is Montini Catholic which comes out with a 23-22 victory. Then, just this past Saturday, the Eagles were upset by St. Paris Graham, Ohio in a 30-29 result on criteria as the teams against split matches. However, it should be noted that a critical swing in the dual meet came during the 220-pound match when Graham got an injury default out a match which was tied in the third period, one in which the St. Edward wrestler was favored to win. Additionally, the Falcons were able to shift their lineup at 120/126 to manufacture an extra win.
Having discussed the merits and history of Wyoming Seminary, Pa. and St. Edward, Ohio, six other teams come to mind as having a case for a very high nationally ranking -- and some even the No. 2 position. First, let's discuss two extreme tournament teams in St. Paris Graham, Ohio and St. Johns, Mich.
Despite an "on-paper" profile that suggests they fit more as a top ten team, it can be argued that the on mat performance of St. Paris Graham suggest a top five ranking. The Falcons swing extremely to the "tournament team" profile with four nationally ranked wrestlers, plus another that is near the national rankings. Those five wrestlers were the team's placers at the Ironman; the nationally ranked ones were finalists, while Eli Seipel (113) placed sixth. That drove home a third place finish for St. Paris Graham, which would have been fourth if Abounader is in the lineup, but approximately 50 points better than the rest of the field.
When one analyzes the rest of the lineup, it is a mix of young wrestlers with potential, some "non-national" kids that are growing, and a couple straight out holes. However, the group levied a rather positive performance in the St. Edward dual meet. It would have been interesting to see how this squad matched up against some of the other top ten-to-twenty teams in the nation in dual meets and/or a high-level tournament not as "top heavy" as the Ironman, but the schedule did not provide such opportunity.
Similar to St. Paris Graham, St. Johns, Mich., profiles as a team with multiple elite individuals, but with certain spots of the lineup having significant holes. The Redwings have five nationally ranked wrestlers, with another wrestler that is near the national ranking conversation. They also reside in the state of Michigan, which has not conformed to the NFHS weight classes, adding a wrench to the lineup analysis. In the NFHS lineup configuration, they would have to "close out" a possible state placer; have one of their projected state champions bump up one or two weights in the middle-weight area; and possess three extreme holes, compared to only two when using the weights of their home state.
Handcuffed by the schedule/travel rules of the Michigan High School Athletic Association, they have arguably faced the least robust schedule of a top ten in the nation team. In mid-December, they split matches in a 33-31 dual meet loss against Detroit Catholic Central, Mich. However, the Redwings had yet to drop their lineup to its present configuration, which created a third major hole in the lower-weights (compared to their present two). When the teams competed in dual meet competition this past weekend, St. Johns won eight matches in a 31-22 victory. In addition, the lower-profile wrestlers on the squad have shown improvement throughout the year; two specific examples would be the 215 and 285-pound wrestlers, who were pinned by their DCC opposition in December but only lost by decision this past weekend.
The weekend before this one, St. Johns was at the DCC Super Duals, where they took on Montini Catholic, St. Edward, and Davison (Mich.) without the presence of Ben Whitford; who is ranked No. 1 in the nation at 145, but competes at 145-160 for dual meets. Against Montini, the Redwings won nine weight classes in a 32-24 victory, yet against St. Edward, the Eagles took nine of the matches in a 38-26 (maybe Whitford's presence gives St. Johns a sixth victory, though it's hard to say). Finally, buoyed by a pair of tossup match victories, Davison was able to split matches in a 35-28 defeat against the Redwings (for reference purposes, St. Edward beat this Davison squad 43-15, winning nine of fourteen matches).
On the other side of the tournament team vs. dual meet squad spectrum is Montini Catholic. The Broncos have zero nationally ranked wrestlers, though one could see about five wrestlers in that next tier. In addition, this is a team that has been battle-hardened through the nation's toughest schedule year-to-date, and they have a lineup in which no weight class is a dead-set guaranteed loss in dual meet competition against national caliber squads.
In the December dual meet portion of the schedule, the Broncos earned victories over top 25 squads Marist, Ill. and Marmion Academy, Ill.; notable is that they were short multiple starters due to football in the victory against Marist. Two weeks after winning a state football title, they came to the Ironman without two wrestlers (though neither was projected to place) and had two others compete still feeling the effects of football. Montini was still able to muster three placements (fifth, sixth, and sixth), with four other wrestlers finishing a match short of placement. That put them 15-30 points outside where other top 15-25 teams finished.
At the already mentioned Dvorak, the Broncos finished second, thirty points behind St. Edward; but 40-plus points ahead of fellow top 25 squads Marist and Marmion Academy. Despite zero champions, they placed 12 wrestlers in all -- one runner-up, five in third, three in fourth, and a single wrestler taking fifth through seventh each. At the Clash, the Broncos cleared their first-day bracket with dual meet victories over top 40 squad Kearney, Mo. (9-5 in matches) and top 30 squad Apple Valley, Minn. (10-4 in matches). On the second day, they won nine matches in a 30-22 victory over top 15 squad Carl Sandburg, Ill.; nine matches in a 33-18 victory over fellow top ten squad Brandon, Fla.; but lost eight matches in a 34-21 loss to top ten squad St. Michael-Albertville, Minn.
At the Cheesehead, Montini Catholic finished second (593.5-575) to Southeast Polk, Iowa, a top 20 in the nation team. However, the Broncos were without state placer Michael Maduko (170), which would have given them approximately a 20-point victory in the end game based on the scoring system of that tournament. Then, at the DCC Super Duals, the matches against St. Edward and St. Johns were already mentioned. However, the Broncos also took nine weight classes each in a victory over Detroit Catholic Central, Mich. -- which is a top 15 caliber squad -- and Davison, Mich. -- a team with a case for being ranked in the Fab 50.
Now to discuss the two squads that along with Montini Catholic finished with 2-1 records in the championship pool at The Clash: St. Michael-Albertville, Minn. and Brandon, Fla.
St. Michael-Albertville has a single nationally ranked wrestler with a few others in that next tier. Most weight classes are manned by a credible, credentialed wrestler. In addition to The Clash, the Knights were champions at the Minnesota Christmas Tournament when they were without a projected state finalist in Mitichell Eull (220/285), and still had a tournament-high ten placers. They won that tournament over Apple Valley, who was without state champion Seth Gross (132), by nine points; also keep in mind this was before the Apple Valley "roof caved in" at The Clash and Cheesehead. It was also an 11-1/2 point distance between St. Michael-Albertville and top 20 squad Kasson-Mantorville.
Even though the Knights did win The Clash, it did not come without tight matches. After starting out with a pair of 12-2 match count victories against Kimball Area, Minn. and Collins Hill, Ga. in Bracket "A", St. Michael-Albertville split the weight classes 7-7 in a 28-26 victory over top 15 squad Oak Park River Forest, Ill. to win that bracket. On day two, there are the already mentioned 33-21 (9 matches to 5) loss to Brandon and 34-21 (8 matches to 6) victory over Montini Catholic, and needed a last match pin to come back from a 23-0 deficit to tie Carl Sandburg in a dual meet won 27-26 on criteria.
Due to geography (i.e. not having many high profile squads and/or events in their proximity), and somewhat due to state association rules, Brandon, Fla. -- along with St. Johns -- has the least robust schedule of a top ten team. From a profile standpoint, the Eagles feature one nationally ranked wrestler with four or five others in that next tier. However, once past the 170-pound weight class, that is where they are somewhat susceptible. Their big litmus test this season came at The Clash. In their first two Bracket "B" duals, the Eagles went 27-1 in the individual matches against overmatched squads from Burnsville, Minn. and Jefferson, Ga. Then, the championship match was a 44-12 (11 matches to 3) blowout of top 25 squad Marist, Ill. When it came to the championship pool, they lost nine matches in a 33-18 loss to Montini Catholic, won eight matches in a 25-23 victory over Carl Sandburg, and won nine matches in a 33-21 victory over St. Michael-Albertville. In addition to The Clash, Brandon did travel to the Kyle Maynard Duals hosted by Collins Hill, Ga., where they accrued a 46-22 victory over a top 35 opponent in Pope, Ga.
Last to be mentioned among the teams in the top nine during this column is Clovis, Calif. In December, they were champions of the Zinkin Classic by 75 points over a top 15 squad in Allen, Tex. However, that margin would be reduced to about 20-25 if one considers the net difference between what No. 4 Oliver Pierce (152), No. 20 Nick Cobb (195), and Stone Drulman (220) would have scored, what any replacements did score, and accounting for a void in the Clovis lineup that would normally be filled. Already mentioned was their championship at the Doc Buchanan, a tournament structured like the Ironman in terms of being an elite individual-driven event, beating Wyoming Seminary for the title due primarily to Eric Morris's injury default in the championship match.
Then, this past weekend, they won the Battle for the Belt at Temecula Valley, Calif. in a tight race. The Cougars beat top 25 squad Bethlehem Catholic, Pa. by 2-1/2 points, while out-pointing top 20 squad Poway, Calif. by eight, despite missing a wrestler at 120 pound that probably wins matches or even possibly ekes out a low place. In the weekend sandwiching those two tournaments, Clovis beat a nationally ranked Vacaville, Calif. squad 43-24, but only won eight of the weight classes.
Ranked No. 5 this month, and No. 6 last month, Canon-McMillan, Pa., has been moved just to the outside of this conversation to the tenth position. This is somewhat temporary in nature, as their position in the rankings had been based on lineup projections involving the presence of Solomon Chishko; Chishko being a top five in the nation junior, having already placed third twice at the state tournament and four times at the Super 32 Challenge. However, he has yet to compete this season, as he recovers from an injury that occurred during the Super 32 finals match.
All this said, the Big Macs are still a squad with four nationally ranked wrestlers, but while solid behind that, they have no one else even in the next tier nationally. Therefore, my decision is to remove them from the top tier conversation until Chishko returns.
In sum, here is the Fab 50 top ten this week:
1. Blair Academy, N.J.
2. St. Edward, Ohio
3. Wyoming Seminary, Pa.
4. St. Johns, Mich.
5. St. Paris Graham, Ohio
6. St. Michael-Albertville, Minn.
7. Montini Catholic, Ill.
8. Brandon, Fla.
9. Clovis, Calif.
10. Canon-McMillan, Pa.
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