If the seeds hold up and first round upsets are avoided, Iowa super frosh Matt McDonough is going to wrestle defending champ Troy Nickerson in the semifinals. Insane shot defense, size and uncommon composure, McDonough presents a bad matchup for the oft-injured Nickerson. A win in the semifinals will put him up against Indiana's Angel Escobedo, a match McDonough could win, but it might be too soon. Expect a healthy Escobedo to secure a lopsided victory and his second NCAA title.
133: No. 1 Jayson Ness (Minnesota) over No. 2 Daniel Dennis (Iowa)
Jordan Oliver should give top seed Jayson Ness trouble in their semifinal match. Quick, respectable on the mat, and under the tutelage of John Smith, it's conceivable that Oliver could find a way to best the undefeated Gopher, but it's highly unlikely. Besides, how do you not choose a guy who permanently mean-mugging the world? Ness takes the title. If Gomez comes ready to wrestle, he could make the finals, but Dennis has shown a knack for beating the defending champion.
141: No. 8 Alex Krom (Maryland) over No. 3 Mike Thorn (Minnesota)
One of the most up-for-grab weight classes at the tournament features a twice-defeated freshman in Cornell's Kyle Dake and explosive Oklahoma State sophomore in Jamal Parks. While they've earned their seeds (one and two respectively) Dake might not be ready for the stress, and Parks is a bit streaky. Here comes the obnoxious, ACC-bias pick of the tournament: Maryland senior Alex Krom. Kerry McCoy has repeatedly shown the ability to peak his athletes for the NCAA tournament. And though Krom starts his tournament with Arizona State All-American Chris Drouin, he should steal Dake's seed, manage a match with Reece Humphrey (don't tie up) and turn his eight seed into a national championship.
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149: No. 1 Lance Palmer (Ohio State) over No. 2 Brent Metcalf (Iowa)
Despite a tough Kyle Ruschell, there are only two wrestlers in title contention at 149: Ohio State's Lance Palmer and Iowa's Brent Metcalf. There was hype for their dual meet, insanity in their Big Ten finals, and now with the series knotted (this season), the two will have their rubber match for the NCAA title. If Palmer keeps Metcalf from earning an escape -- or earns a ride time point -- I don't think he can generate an extra takedown, especially if he's gun-shy from the hi-crotch that ended with a scramble, back points, and loss.
157: No. 3 Jesse Dong (Virginia Tech) over No. 4 Cyler Sanderson (Penn State)
Here's the problem with Harvard senior J.P. O'Connor winning the NCAA title: too many stall calls. O'Connor can get away with his nasty parallel ride back East, clocking hours of ride time and the occasional set of back points. In Omaha, surrounded by 17k action-hungry fans, referees are more likely to call his ride a stall, forcing O'Connor back to his feet, and giving opponents like Steve Fittery and Cyler Sanderson a chance to work from their feet. Boise State's Adam Hall and Virginia Tech's Jesse Dong are the bottom-side semifinalists. Dong wins a somewhat lopsided finals match against Sanderson and earns Virginia Tech its first-ever NCAA champion.
165: No. 1 Andrew Howe (Wisconsin) over No. 3 Nick Marable (Missouri)
With Missouri's Nick Marable beating 2009 NCAA champ Jarrod King in the semifinals, the NCAA finals will be a Big 12/Big Ten match-up with Andrew Howe of Wisconsin breezing past his competition to win his first title. Howe, who won their first meeting this year in a ride out, trains with Oklahoma grad Jared Frayer and former U.S. World Team member Donny Pritzlaff -- I just can't see Marable giving him the same amount of trouble the second time around.
174: No. 1 Mack Lewnes (Cornell) over No. 2 Jay Borschel (Iowa)
Mack Lewnes is wrestling at a different level this season. He's won decisively in most of his bouts against top opponents, and even though he underperformed at the tournament last year, it probably served as a lesson coming into the 2010 tournament. Standing in his way is piano playing Jay Borschel, who has endeared himself to wrestling fans with an aggressive but balanced set of attacks. I think this will be the highlight match of the finals.
184: No. 1 Kirk Smith (Boise State) over No. 2 John Dergo (Illinois)
Miller and Pucillo in the pigtail?! Despite that ridiculous draw, the finals are pretty easy to predict. Boise State's Kirk Smith is on a tear and Illini John Dergo -- a Chicago-land native and most athletic competitor in the tournament -- are headed to the finals. Their first match ended with an overtime takedown for Smith, but Dergo beat Keddy in the Big Ten finals and I think the Big Ten schedule has done well to prepare him for their rematch.
197: No. 1 Jake Varner (Iowa) over No. 2 Craig Brester (Nebraska)
Craig Brester is talented and any other year he might be the NCAA Champion, but with Jake Varner in the bracket there is only one person who can, or will, win the title.
285: No. 4 Konrad Dudziak (Duke) over No. 6 Nathan Everhart (Indiana)
Because of poor seeding, which makes almost no sense, there will be more upsets and interesting matchups at heavyweight than most any other weight class. In the Big Ten finals, Dan Erekson locked up a tight cradle on then-undefeated Nathan Everhart from Indiana. While I like what Pat DeGain has done getting Everhart to the podium, the tournament champion will be decided Friday Morning when Erekson meets Duke's Polish phenom Konrad Dudziak in the quarterfinals. If Dudziak stays out of the cradle he should earn a one-point win and face Everhart in the finals. He'd be Duke's first-ever NCAA champion.
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