McDonough has been on fire since losing to Northwestern's Brandon Precin in the finals of the Midlands in late December. He will have to get past Precin, who is one of the best wrestlers in the country in any weight class, in the semifinals. If McDonough and Precin meet, it will mark the fourth meeting of the season between the Big Ten rivals. There's no reason to believe those two won't meet again and I expect it to be another barn burner decided by a takedown. McDonough thrives on the big stage and won't be denied. It's hard not to like Robles. He's a class act who has been crushing opponents all season. Robles will cruise to the finals, picking up bonus points in every match along the way, including his semifinal victory over undefeated James Nicholson of Old Dominion. In the finals, McDonough will execute a well-devised game plan against Robles and win his second title in as many years.
133: No. 1 Jordan Oliver (Oklahoma State) over No. 2 Andrew Hochstrasser (Boise State)
Oliver has been a bonus point machine this season, unlike last season when he won four matches at the NCAAs (en route to finishing fourth) by scores of 3-2, 6-4, 5-4, 4-3. He has been putting a lot of points on the scoreboard this season. One of the things I appreciate about Oliver is that he's never satisfied with his performance, which is going to take him a long way in his wrestling career. If the seeds hold, Oliver will face Wisconsin's Tyler Graff in the semifinals. Graff has a gas tank and wrestles hard the entire time, but I just think Oliver is too technically sound to lose to Graff. I expect it to be chalk on the bottom half of the bracket with Hochstrasser and Penn State's Andrew Long advancing to the semifinals. The Hochtrasser-Long semifinal match intrigues me because both are wrestling at a very high level right now. Hochstrasser has an advantage on the mat, but Long's attacking style could give him fits. Hochstrasser-Long is a tossup, but I'm giving it to the senior Hochstrasser. Hochstrasser-Oliver III (if it happens) should be another battle, but Oliver is wrestling too well to pick against him.
141: No. 2 Mike Thorn (Minnesota) over No. 4 Jimmy Kennedy (Illinois)
Interesting statistic: The last three years a Big Ten wrestler has reached the NCAA finals at this weight class and none of those wrestlers won a Big Ten title the year they reached the NCAA finals. I expect that trend to continue this season. So against my better judgment, I'm picking against the undefeated Russell. I picked against him at the Big Tens. After Russell won his third Big Ten title in a loaded weight class, I told myself that I would never pick against him again. But I have somehow convinced myself that he cannot keep winning these tight matches. Kennedy, a two-time All-American, was on the brink of beating Russell in the semifinals of the Big Tens, but Russell found a way to win. In Kennedy's last NCAA appearance (two seasons ago), his championship run ended before it even started when he lost his pigtail match, so you can bet that still burns. Russell has won the first two meetings this season between the two, but it's a tall order to beat a wrestler as skilled as Kennedy three straight times. Thorn is placed on the opposite side of the bracket as his Big Ten rivals, with the exception of Penn State's Andrew Alton, who he could potentially see in the semifinals. Thorn has said countless times this season that he's wrestling without any pressure because in all likelihood he's hanging up the competitive shoes after this season. Jayson Ness ended his competitive career last season with an NCAA title. This year another Gopher, Thorn, will do the same with a victory in the finals over his longtime friend Kennedy.
149: No. 1 Darrion Caldwell (North Carolina State) over No. 6 Jason Chamberlain (Boise State)
Caldwell is the best wrestler in all of college wrestling. No, not merely the most talented (he is also that), but the best. He has not lost an official college wrestling match in three years. Caldwell has beaten six NCAA finalists in college or freestyle, including a Dan Hodge Trophy winner twice (Brent Metcalf), a U.S. World Team member (Dustin Schlatter), and a U.S. Olympian (Doug Schwab). He is one of only three college wrestlers who has been on the U.S. National Team in freestyle. (Wisconsin's Andrew Howe and Missouri's Dom Bradley are the others.) Everyone is looking for reasons why Caldwell won't win an NCAA title this season, whether it's his conditioning, health, or the fact that he has only wrestled 14 matches this season and faced only one seeded wrestler. People read too much into Caldwell's matches prior to the NCAAs. Anyone who is familiar with Caldwell knows that he has a different gear for events that matter to him. Unfortunately for the other wrestlers in this weight class, this is an event that matters to Caldwell. Cornell's Kyle Dake, like Caldwell, is at his best when the stakes are highest. He's coming off an EIWA finals loss, but so was Cornell's Jordan Leen when he won an NCAA title in 2008. Dake is not afraid to mix it up and a semifinal showdown with Caldwell could see some fireworks. However, Caldwell is just too skilled for anyone in this weight class, including Dake. I see Chamberlain coming out of the bottom side of the bracket. Chamberlain gets overlooked nationally because he does not compete in the Big Ten or Big 12, but he is as skilled as anyone in this weight class not named Caldwell. His only blemish this season is to Oklahoma State's Jamal Parks. Chamberlain will edge Bucknell's Kevin LeValley in the quarterfinals before knocking off Penn State's Frank Molinaro in the semifinals. But Chamberlain's run will come to an end in the finals against Caldwell.
157: No. 3 David Taylor (Penn State) over No. 1 Adam Hall (Boise State)
This weight class reminds me a little bit of the 157-pound weight class in 2009 that included Jordan Burroughs of Nebraska, Mike Poeta of Illinois, Jordan Leen of Cornell, and Gregor Gillespie of Edinboro, only because it includes four dynamic wrestlers who stand above everyone else in the weight class. But in terms of college accomplishments (to date), the 2009 group was superior. Burroughs, Poeta, Leen, and Gillespie were all NCAA finalists (three were NCAA champions) ... and only Arizona State's Bubba Jenkins has reached in the NCAA finals in this year's group. I see this year's "Big Four" -- Hall, Steve Fittery of American, Taylor, and Jenkins as being neck and neck with one another. Any of the four are capable of winning the title. I'm not in the camp that believes Hall should not have been the No. 1 seed. He's not only the highest returning NCAA finisher, but he has two wins over an NCAA runner-up (Jenkins) and beat Fittery in their last meeting. Taylor and Fittery have combined to beat one All-American this season. Like many, I've been following Taylor's career closely since he was a baby-faced high school freshman. When Taylor was in high school, I wrote in an article that he's going to go down as one of the best college wrestlers of his generation and I stand by that. I love his wrestling style. He's always trying to score points and is not afraid to take chances. If college wrestling had more wrestlers like David Taylor, the sport would have more fans. If the seeds hold in this weight class, the semifinals will have the fans in the sold-out Wells Fargo Center in a frenzy. I predicted Fittery to win the NCAA title last season when he placed fifth, and he's certainly capable of winning it this season, but I just think his wide-open style is going to play right into Taylor's strengths. I see Taylor beating Fittery by four to six points. Hall-Jenkins IV is a tossup match that probably won't be decided in regulation. The two know each other well and I expect it to be a low-scoring, strategic battle. I see Hall coming out on top and facing Taylor in the finals. In the finals, I see Taylor winning a very competitive match against Hall.
165: No. 1 Jordan Burroughs (Nebraska) over No. 2 Andrew Howe (Wisconsin)
Anytime you have two NCAA champions in the same weight class, it makes for an interesting weight class. Burroughs' double leg has become virtually unstoppable, even for highly-ranked opponents who know it's coming. Oklahoma's Tyler Caldwell, a returning All-American, seems to have devised a match strategy to slow Burroughs down. But Caldwell will have to navigate through a tough bottom side of the bracket that includes defending NCAA champion Howe to even get another shot at Burroughs on the front side of the bracket. Howe is also looking to get another shot at Burroughs after losing to him in the finals of the Midlands. Howe missed the second half of January and all of February because of a hamstring injury, but came back to win his third Big Ten title. He was pushed hard at the Big Tens and needed overtime to win the semifinals and finals. The semifinal match between Howe and Caldwell (assuming they meet) will be tight, but Howe seems to find ways to win the tight matches (think Steve Luke) and I see him outlasting Caldwell. Burroughs will win comfortably over Sponseller in the other semifinal match. Burroughs-Howe I (Midlands) was 10-7 Burroughs. I see Burroughs-Howe II (NCAA finals) being somewhere around 5-2 Burroughs.
174: No. 3 Mack Lewnes (Cornell) over No. 1 Jon Reader (Iowa State)
Lewnes was the No. 1 seed at the NCAAs as a sophomore and junior and came up short both years, going 0-2 as a sophomore and finishing runner-up last season. Now as a senior he's not seeded to make the NCAA finals because of regular season losses to the top two seeds, Reader and Penn State's Ed Ruth. Aside from those two losses, Lewnes has crushed his competition this season. Reader has wrestled like a man on a mission this season after failing to place last season at 165 pounds. He is undefeated on the season and wrestling with a lot of confidence. Ruth, a redshirt freshman, has some freakish skills and can be as good as he wants to be in this sport. He took Lewnes down three times en route to an 11-6 victory in the semifinals of the Southern Scuffle. In the Southern Scuffle finals, Ruth topped Virginia's Chris Henrich, 7-2. On the top side of the bracket, I expect Reader, the top seed, to come through and make the finals. On the bottom side of the bracket, I like Lewnes to make the necessary adjustments and get revenge against Ruth in the semifinals, setting up a Reader-Lewnes finals matchup. The first time the two seniors met this season, Reader edged Lewnes, 7-6. If they meet in the finals, I think it's a lower-scoring match ... I'll take Lewnes, 3-1, over Reader for the championship.
184: No. 5 Joe LeBlanc (Wyoming) over No. 6 Ryan Loder (Northern Iowa)
This weight class is deep. As I see it, there are nine or 10 wrestlers in the mix for the title at 184 pounds. The top seed, Edinboro's Chris Honeycutt, is the lone unbeaten in the weight class, but is by no means a strong favorite to stand on top of the podium. Honeycutt won 7-2 over third-seeded Steve Bosak of Cornell, but has not faced any of the other seeded wrestlers in the weight class this season. Edinboro coach Tim Flynn is one of the best coaches in college wrestling and has a history of getting his wrestlers to peak at the NCAAs. Honeycutt certainly has the tools to make the finals, but will have his work cut out for him in the top half of the bracket with LeBlanc, Wisconsin's Travis Rutt, Minnesota's Kevin Steinhaus, and Penn State's Quentin Wright. I like LeBlanc, a two-time All-American, to come through the top half of the bracket. He took a loss to Northern Iowa's Ryan Loder at the West Regional qualifier, but his coach, Mark Branch, knows a thing or two about performing when it matters most. The bottom side of the bracket, much like the top half, has a handful of wrestlers capable of making the finals. Returning NCAA runner-up Kirk Smith of Boise State is the 11th seed, but his health is a major concern .... and in a weight class this deep, it's going to take a wrestler firing on all cylinders to come through. It might be too much to ask of a banged-up Smith to string together consecutive victories over highly-ranked wrestlers. I really like the way Loder and Oklahoma State's Chris Perry, both freshmen, are wrestling right now. Loder has only taken one loss, to LeBlanc, since December. Perry has won 12 of his last 13 matches, losing only to LeBlanc during that stretch. In the semifinals, I see Loder beating Perry for the second time this season, giving first-year head coach Doug Schwab his first NCAA finalist at UNI, and setting up rematch of the West Regional final for the NCAA title. Both LeBlanc-Loder matches have been one-point matches and I expect the rubber match in the NCAA finals to be another tight one ... with LeBlanc coming out on top.
197: No. 1 Cam Simaz (Cornell) over No. 3 Trevor Brandvold (Wisconsin)
Simaz, the top seed and a two-time All-American, is someone Cornell is counting on to come through and score big points. Simaz has been No. 1 most of the season. The only blemish on his record is a 10-9 loss to Kent State's Dustin Kilgore in an action-filled match at the Body Bar Invitational in November. If the seeds hold, Simaz will meet Kilgore in the semifinals. Kilgore, though, will likely have to get past Iowa's Luke Lofthouse, who has been wrestling well, in the quarterfinals. Either way, I like Simaz to come out of the top half of the bracket. The bottom half of the bracket has two undefeated wrestlers in Oklahoma State's Clayton Foster and Brandvold. In addition, it includes Penn's Micah Burak, who has a win over Kilgore and a recent 1-0 loss to Simaz. Pitt's Zac Thomusseit is another wrestler who will be in the mix on the bottom side of the bracket. He has a win this season over Lofthouse and has only lost to Kilgore and Burak this season. I like Brandvold to beat Foster in the semifinals in a battle of two undefeated wrestlers. But in the end, I think Simaz gets the job done and wins the title.
285: No. 5 Dom Bradley (Missouri) over No. 3 Ryan Flores (American)
A tough weight class to predict because all 12 seeds are close. Nothing would shock me in this weight class. Lehigh's Zach Rey has been the most consistent heavyweight this season, which is why he earned the No. 1 seed despite losing to Flores in the EIWA Finals. Bradley is one off day from being undefeated and the No. 1 seed. He took three losses one day at the Northeast Duals on Nov. 27, but otherwise has been perfect. I like Bradley, who is wrestling in his first NCAA tournament after sitting behind NCAA champion Mark Ellis, to avenge all three of those losses en route to winning the title. I see him taking out D.J. Russo of Rutgers in the quarterfinals, Rey in the semifinals, and Flores in the finals.
Top Five Teams:
1. Cornell
2. Penn State
3. Iowa
4. Boise State
5. Minnesota
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