The 2016 NCAA wrestling tournament was perhaps the most exciting event our sport has ever produced. The collection of tight matches and deep storylines were only enhanced by the bright lights of Madison Square Garden. Needless to say, we approach this year's event with some big shoes to fill.
The good news is athletes, coaches and spectators from around the nation return to fan favorite Scottrade Center in St Louis this Thursday. There are 10 clear-cut favorites in each weight class. In fact, those 10 are the only remaining undefeated wrestlers in the country. Yes, that's good news for those of us looking to place a few legitimate wagers on some long shots. History shows that it remains highly unlikely that all 10 of those young athletes will reach the finals, let alone stand atop the podium come Saturday night. Need some convincing? The last time all top seeds advanced to the finals, Dan Gable had yet to hit his first double leg takedown. Actually I can't guarantee that … but I can tell you he was approximately 6 months old at the time.
Even in a seemingly predictable year, the only certainty about this tournament remains its uncertainty. That means there is still plenty of action to enjoy, upsets to expect and prosperous betting opportunities to find!
I'm here to help you identify some of those winning plays, but remember, I'm in no way responsible for what you bet, or if you bet. Think twice before going all-in on the field versus a reigning Olympic champion. This is for fun, so if you can't afford to pay, don't play.
For the newcomers, here's how it usually works:
A few numbers for thought before we break down the weight classes (all data is since the 2003 NCAA tournament):
On to the breakdown of this year's weight classes and my personal (pre-official) lines:
Iowa's top-seeded Thomas Gilman will look to finish his college career on top (Photo/Mark Lundy, Lutte-Lens.com)125: Iowa's Thomas Gilman enters as our first undefeated top seed after falling short in last year's NCAA finals. He finds a past opponent in No. 2 seed Joey Dance of Virginia Tech, while talented newcomer Nick Suriano of Penn State limps in for the third seed. No. 4 seed Darian Cruz of Lehigh adds some serious talent to the field.
Lines: Gilman -200, Dance +250, Field +250
The Play: Gilman has dominated outside of a controlled 3-2 victory over Suriano and a comeback fall over Ethan Lizak of Minnesota. He's also received a nice draw away from wrestlers who have given him trouble. The Suriano injury raises the stakes for the second-round match between Lizak and Josh Terao of American, but I like Dance to break through and challenge Gilman on the big stage. It's tempting to take Dance here with a big line, but Gilman has been too dominating and well-coached to bite. Let's take him to go out on top while enjoying some final constructive criticism from the crowd.
SDSU's Seth Gross enters the NCAAs as the No. 2 seed (Photo/David Peterson, Minnesota/USA Wrestling)133: Nathan Tomasello earns top seed after completing another undefeated regular season culminating in his third Big Ten title. There is a deep and talented group to fill in our field, including South Dakota State's Seth Gross, Oklahoma State's Kaid Brock and two-time finalist Cory Clark of Iowa to round out our top four seeds.
Lines: Tomasello -150, Clark +275, Field +225
The Play: Nato finds himself in a similar spot to last year … an undefeated record with some close wins during the season. Both Clark and Michigan's Stevan Micic have shown capable of handing him a loss here. If he survives that matchup, Nato will find a formidable finals opponent from the slew of competitors below. I saw enough last year to bet against him and I see enough this year follow suit. Let's pay close attention to the field and take our first bet against a top seed. For the sake of a prediction, I'll take Gross over Clark for the title. Go Jacks!
141: Dean Heil of Oklahoma State returns with an undefeated record and an NCAA title on the resume. More than a few familiar names will challenge Heil's repeat attempt, most notably Kevin Jack of NC State and Joey McKenna of Stanford in the bottom bracket. Newcomer Matthew Kolodzik of Princeton joins Heil and two-time Big Ten champ Anthony Ashnault of Rutgers up top, while last year's bracket buster Bryce Meredith of Wyoming enters as the No. 10 seed.
Lines: Heil +150, Jack +225, Field -150
The Play: This bracket looks eerily similar to 2016. Meredith will go through Jack and McKenna again if there's to be another Cinderella run. Heil proved me wrong last year and will have another opportunity to do so again. The field is too large to name everyone, but many are capable of finding the legs of Heil. It's just a matter of finishing those attacks. If they have scouted his defense, one might even find a fall along the way. Or maybe we just need the right referee? Either way, I'll take the field here again and see Ashnault over McKenna on Saturday night.
149: No surprises here as Zain Retherford of Penn State continues his streak of wins and general ability to make others feel uncomfortable on the mat. Some notables in the challenger field are No. 2 seed Anthony Collica of Oklahoma State and returning finalist Brandon Sorensen of Iowa. Both have kept it close with Penn State's thoroughbred this season.
Lines: Retherford -600, Collica +350, Field +600
The Play: This is where Penn State's lineup starts to get scary and I won't spend a ton of time repeating how certain they are to win here and at 157. While Collica and Sorensen have both challenged Zain, only Sorensen threatened on his feet. Something any hopeful champ will need to find a way to do as Retherford's mat wrestling is just too solid. That being said, Zain was back in full beast mode at Big Tens and is one of the bigger locks this weekend. A bet against Zain would be giving money away and a bet on him would be too costly. Let's find better plays.
157: The second half of Penn State's two-headed monster, Jason Nolf headlines here and can make a claim as the most dominating wrestler in the country. Few have separated themselves from the field the way Nolf has. Those trying to close that gap include No. 2 Michael Kemerer of Iowa and MAC champion Joey Lavallee of Missouri. Former All-American and unseeded B.J. Clagon of Rider seems to be peaking late and is a talent to keep an eye on.
Lines: Nolf -550, Kemerer +450, Field +750
The Play: Kemerer is the only wrestler to hold Nolf to a decision and has done so twice. He's probably a year away from threatening the Nittany Lion and will also need to get past Cornell's Dylan Palacio early. Nolf combines an early 90s Iowa-type pace with leg attacks, scrambling ability and technique that leaves spectators happy and opponents in disbelief. He truly appears to be operating under rules found in The Matrix. Even with a slightly more favorable line than Retherford, he's too pricey. Let's stay away, grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.
165: Isaiah Martinez of Illinois is three-for-three earning the top seed at his weight class. A collection of Big Ten opponents round out the top four seeds in the bracket as freshmen Logan Massa of Michigan and Vincenzo Joseph of Penn State make their tournament debuts. Returning finalist Isaac Jordan of Wisconsin joins Martinez on the top half and will look to make a return to the elevated mat.
Lines: Martinez -300, Massa +300, Field +450
The Play: Expect the seeds to hold here and give us an all-Big Ten semifinal affair. Chad Walsh of Rider and Daniel Lewis of Missouri will attempt to spoil that. I've bet against Imar each of the past two seasons, and unlike Heil, he's convinced me to stop. The pending semi with Jordan will be his biggest threat from a matchup standpoint. However, Imar has had no problem adjusting to his new weight class and continually finds that devastating underhook. He can win via blowout, shootout or rideout and I'll take him -300 or better to go three-for-three.
ASU's Zahid Valencia is undefeated and seeded No. 1 at 174 pounds (Photo/Tony Rotundo, WrestlersAreWarriors.com)174: Yet another impressive newcomer in the form of undefeated freshman Zahid Valencia of Arizona State, our top seed. Brian Realbuto of Cornell and Bo Jordan of Ohio State will each have to navigate a dangerous lower bracket to meet in the semifinals. Valencia will have his hands full on the top side with a set of challengers, including No. 4 Zach Epperly of Virginia Tech and Penn State's freshman phenom Mark Hall.
Lines: Valencia even, Realbuto +250, Field even
The Play: If Valencia can finish the season out unscathed, the talk of four titles will start by Sunday breakfast. Assuming he can sneak past North Carolina's Ethan Ramos again, I think we're looking at a super frosh showdown between Valencia and Hall. If anyone can match Valencia's ability on his feet, it's the junior world champ Hall, and I like him to emerge to face Realbuto under the spotlight. I've taken Realbuto each of the past two seasons and he's come up short. Tough to quit on him now and I like him +250 or better, proving bad habits die hard.
184: Gabe Dean of Cornell is one of the few wrestlers who can challenge Jason Nolf's claim as most dominant in the country. He returns as our top seed and looks to cap his career off with a third title. His road won't be easy as this weight class packs a ton of ready talent, including Penn State's unorthodox Bo Nickal, Iowa's Big Ten champ Sammy Brooks and returning NCAA champion Myles Martin of Ohio State.
Lines: Dean -250, Nickal +225, Field +450
The Play: When an NCAA champion is seeded sixth, you've got a loaded weight class on your hands with a lot of possibilities. I think the stars align to give us another Martin-Nickal installment in the semi. A nice draw keeps Dean away from the Big Ten contingent but he will still need to weed through some All-Americans to make his third finals appearance. We can only hope that Bo Nickal is waiting on the other side. Tough to find success by attacking Dean head on, and only Nickal has the creativity and tools in his arsenal to go "around" him. I like him to edge out the Cornell stud in the premier bout of the year. Let's take a chance here on Bo +250 or better.
197: Another wrestler will be attempting to go out with his third title, Missouri's uber-talented J'den Cox. He has already been pushed this year by Minnesota's Brett Pfarr, Ohio State's Big Ten champion Kollin Moore and ACC champion Jared Haught of Virginia Tech.
Lines: Cox -350, Moore +400, Field +450
The Play: Cox has looked susceptible to upset this year at times, but he gets a free pass for a slow early season after an active offseason and readjusting to the weight class. Out of the challengers, Moore gets my nod as the biggest threat and was able to score two takedowns against J'den in the dual meet meeting. That won't happen here. I'm willing to take a chance against a two-time NCAA champion (see 184), but not against an Olympic bronze medalist who defeated Kyle Dake in a best-of-three. I like Cox -350 or better to go out on top as one of the best ever.
285: And finally we arrive at our last undefeated top seed, Ohio State's returning NCAA champion Kyle Snyder. Connor Medbery of Wisconsin and Ty Walz of Virginia Tech are both big boys who can move and one will look to take out the Olympic champion on the big stage.
Lines: Snyder -750, Medbery +600, Field +1200
The Play: Medbery and Walz have each earned takedowns against Snyder; Medbery more recently in the Big Ten finals. I can't say I felt either was really ever in the match, though. In the span of roughly 12 months, Kyle Snyder won a world title, defeated a two-time champion for his first NCAA title and earned an Olympic gold medal for the United States. Don't bet against Kyle Snyder. The only thing to debate here is where his accomplishments land him among the all-time greats. Crab cakes, football and wrestling … That's what Maryland does!
Official lines should be available at your online sportsbook midweek (Wednesday) and individual lines are posted before the semifinals and finals in case you would like to hedge your bets ... or double down.
Good luck and enjoy the winnings!
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