On Thursday, collegiate wrestlers and coaches from around the nation will gather in the Big Apple to put individual and team titles on the line. In turn, fans will flock to arena seats and couches to take in all the action. Viewers will also have the opportunity to join their basketball counterparts by putting their money where their mouth is to make legitimate wagers on their sport.
2015 proved to be yet another winning opportunity for wrestling fans who knew where to look. An abnormal amount of low seeds found their way to the finals last year, including an unseeded Zeke Moisey of West Virginia. That type of outcome is the norm, not the exception, for our sport's culminating event and can in turn mean big pay days for those willing to lay some money down.
Each year the NCAA tournament gains more visibility and coverage and New York City will help push that envelope even further. Oddsmakers have responded by tightening the lines they offer, making it tougher to gain an advantage in the wagering world. However, we have a few wide open weights this year, including 141 pounds where roughly ten young men have a realistic opportunity to walk away with gold. That could make for some very big lines and prosperous bets!
I'm here to help you identify some of those winning plays, but remember, I'm in no way responsible for what you bet, or if you bet. Think twice before going all-in on the field versus Alex Dieringer at 165 pounds. This is for fun, so if you can't afford to pay, don't play.
For the newcomers, here's how it usually works:
Each weight class is broken down with a money line on the top two or three individuals (usually by seed). Then the remaining wrestlers, or the Field, are given a collective money line to win. For clarity purposes each line uses a base amount of $100. So if the line is +150, that means you risk $100 to win $150. Likewise, if the line is -150, you risk $150 to win $100.
A few numbers for thought before we break down the weight classes (all data is since the 2003 NCAA tournament):
The top seed at the NCAA tournament has won almost exactly 50% of the time. A wrestler seeded third or lower has won approximately 30%. A wrestler seeded fourth or lower has won approximately 20%. The Field comes in on average two to three times a year. All champs in 2013 came from either the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. That hadn't happened previously since John Smith was hitting low singles in
an orange singlet.
On to the breakdown of this year's weight classes and my personal (pre-official) lines:
125: Nathan Tomasello enters as the top seed and will look to defend the title he obtained last year as a No. 4 seed. He currently holds the narrowest of advantages over Nico Megaludis, Joey Dance and Thomas Gilman. Each are capable of sending Nato back to Columbus in a cranky mood. Zeke Moisey will miss the tournament due to injury and will not have the chance to repeat last year's impressive Cinderella run.
The Lines: Tomasello +110, Dance +300, Field +200
The Play: Nato has controlled the weight with two walk-off wins over Megaludis as well as a slim victory over Dance by way of a confusing stall call. He has not faced Gilman yet this season, who has given him problems in the past. I don't see a Moisey-type bracket buster so we shouldn't expect any surprise matchups in the semifinals. I like Gilman to earn a slight upset over Tomasello for a rematch with Megaludis on the elevated mat. It would be Megaludis' third time in the finals. Third time a charm? I take the Field over Nato.
133: Top-seeded Nahshon Garrett made the healthy choice to go up in weight for his last year of competition. That decision has paid dividends as he has consistently obliterated this field, including a shootout win over last year's champ Cody Brewer. The top two Big Ten entrees, Cory Clark and Zane Richards, headline the lower half of the bracket.
The Lines: Garrett -200, Brewer +200, Field +350
The Play: I had doubts about Garrett's ability to handle what is likely the toughest draw of any top seed. I then went back and watched his last few matches … I no longer have doubts. There is a chance that Brewer re-enacts that alien-like performance from a year ago and slices through the bracket. However, I believe it's more likely that Garrett keeps the form he's had all season and goes out with a big title for the Big Red. I like him at -200 or better. Watch out for sixth-seeded George Dicamillo to make some noise for the Cavaliers in the lower half.
141: Dean Heil enters as the top seed and held an unblemished record until late in the season. Newcomer Joey McKenna of Stanford has taken Heil to deep waters twice this season while Anthony Ashnault earned Rutgers' first Big Ten title in dominant fashion. Kevin Jack has come on strong after an improbable run at last year's tournament.
The Lines: Heil +225, McKenna +300, Field even
The Play: You could wrestle this weight ten different times and see ten different champs. For the sake of putting a prediction on the line I'll take an Ashnault-McKenna all-Garden State matchup in the Garden. One for the bridge and tunnel crowd. Let's take the Field with confidence.
149: Top-seeded Zain Retherford may be the most improved wrestler in the nation. A scary proposition considering he held a win over Logan Stieber his true freshman year. His lone "scare" came at the hands of All-American B.J. Clagon of Rider, a match in which he only allowed an escape point. Former NCAA champ Jason Tsirtsis will battle with Brandon Sorensen, Lavion Mayes and Jake Sueflohn for the right to wrestle Retherford under the bright lights.
The Lines: Retherford -400, Sorensen +320, Field +300
The Play: The Zain Train has been rolling all season and hasn't shown any signs of coming to a stop. The potential rematch with Clagon in the quarterfinals is one to watch and may very well pose his biggest challenge. However, nobody has been able to match Zain's all-around abilities and I don't think that will change by Saturday. You may however have to pay a high price for the lock of the tournament.
157: Isaiah Martinez nabs the top seed after avenging the lone loss of his career in the Big Ten finals with third-seeded spark plug Jason Nolf. Thomas Gantt has done his part to propel NC State to their dream season by compiling a perfect record. Two-time All American Ian Miller will be looking to go out on top after a controversial loss last year in St. Louis. Dylan Palacio and Joe Smith add some serious pedigree and depth to the field of contenders.
The Lines: Martinez even, Nolf +120, Field +425
The Play: Fans are getting their popcorn ready for the third installment of this epic Big Ten trilogy between Imar and Nolf. They should also be hoping the stars align for a Miller-Palacio quarterfinal matchup. Let's keep an eye on the scoring in that one. Either wrestler will give Martinez an interesting look in the semifinal. On the flip side, Nolf certainly can't overlook Smith or Gantt. In the end, these things seem to have a way of working out and we'll be granted our third meeting between these two talents. Flip a coin. I'm going with the PSU buzz saw via devastating pace.
165: Alex Dieringer heads to New York looking to extend his lengthy win streak and gain his third title in as many years. He may be hoping to avoid a semifinal matchup with Missouri's Daniel (middle name not Day) Lewis, who found a way to ride the Oklahoma State Cowboy for a good portion of their dual meet matchup. We have the Jordan Bowl to look forward to on the bottom side of the bracket between Isaac and Bo.
The Lines: AD -400, Isaac +250, Field +375
The Play: Lewis is an absolute hammer on top, but Dieringer will be ready and prepped for the rematch. Bo Jordan has not looked nearly as dominant since making the drop in weight and sadly we'll have to wait another year for his return to 174 pounds and the impending Bo Bowl. I still like him to turn the corner against his cousin and give Dieringer a lot to handle under the spotlight. A bet against AD would be foolish and a bet on him would be too expensive. Let's stay away from this one and enjoy the ending to a great career as he makes the leap to the next level.
174: Penn State's high-flying phenom Bo Nickal lets it all hang out and is your top seed. Nickal enjoyed a coming out party at this year's Southern Scuffle with wins over second-seeded Brian Realbuto of Cornell as well as UNC's fourth-seeded Ethan Ramos. Blaise Butler of Missouri joins Realbuto down low.
The Lines: Nickal -175, Realbuto +250, Field +275
The Play: I picked Realbuto over a highly touted freshman last year and came up a bit short. Bo knows things .. Wrestling things .. namely scrambling and double over hooks. Realbuto knows scrambling and position. I'll take another shot on Realbuto to win a much-anticipated rematch.
184: Defending champ Gabe Dean returns as the No. 1 seed in a barn burner of a weight class. Sammy Brooks earned himself a Big Ten title and the second seed simply by focusing on developing the right postseason hairstyle. Vic Avery and Domenic Abounader have only three losses between them and slot in at the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds respectively. The field is deep and scrappy.
The Lines: Dean even, Brooks +350, Field +225
The Play: Dean looked like he would run away with this one before suffering his only loss of the season to Nolan Boyd, who he will see early if seeds hold. You either believe that match was a fluke or you don't. I'm in the second camp and I'm going with Brooks here because upsets happen every year and sometimes you just need to take a chance on a mullet.
197: Top seed and undefeated Morgan McIntosh is yet another entry by the seemingly unstoppable force that is PSU. Former NCAA champ J'den Cox will look to regain his title from the second seed. Brett Pfarr and Nathan Burak will try to disrupt what appears to be a collision course as part of the field.
The Lines: McIntosh +165, Cox +115 Field +700
The Play: PSU fans cannot be happy to see Conner Hartmann on their side of the bracket here. The Blue Devil ended McIntosh's momentum in last year's tournament and will look to repeat that feat. Meanwhile, Cox shouldn't be tested until the finals. He holds a 2-1 advantage in the series with McIntosh and already owns a title. I like him with a late takedown for the win.
285: Two time champ and top-seeded Nick Gwiazdowski will try to conquer a tough bracket in his home state. WORLD CHAMPION and 2 seed Kyle Snyder decided to spend his free time taking on the collegiate big boys. Ty Walz, Austin Marsden and Adam Coon will look to play spoiler to the most anticipated match of the weekend.
The Lines: Gwiazdowski even, Snyder even, Field +1000
The Play: Any concerns over Snyder's ability to handle the weight were alleviated in his Big Ten final with Coon. This is the most anticipated 285-pound match since Stephen Neal-Brock Lesnar and we can only hope a team title is on the line when they meet. Did I mention Kyle Snyder is a WORLD CHAMPION? Gwiazdowski will hold the weight advantage but world gold gives Snyder the better trophy case and perhaps a slight mental edge. I'll go with the guy who challenges Russians overseas in his spare time. Snyder by one.
Official lines should be available at your online sportsbook midweek (Wednesday) and individual lines are posted before the semifinals and finals in case you would like to hedge your bets ... or double down.
Good luck and enjoy the winnings!
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