Foley: Predicting the Olympic team in 2016

There are two World championships left before the United States decides its freestyle team. That time leaves fans and pundits to project -- often with little more than hunches -- who will be in top form come time for the Rio Olympics.

The U.S. men's freestyle team is one of the best in the world. From finishing third at the World Cup in 2013 to their double gold in London, the team will likely be one of the top five at this year's World Championships in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, and should they improve over the coming year, the Americans can make a run at the Russians and Iranians in 2015.

But who will make the Olympic team in 2016?

57 kilos

I've been fortunate over the past 18 months to watch a lot of freestyle wrestling and as I take in the teams I'm constantly reminded of America's recent lack of production at 57 kilos. We have talented individuals, but they haven't won major titles and in matches with top opponents have yet to make the jump.

Jesse Delgado is a two-time NCAA champion with one season remaining (Photo/John Sachs, Tech-Fall.com)

Looking ahead to the rest of 2014 and 2015 the U.S. team has a veteran in Angel Escobedo, and Obe Blanc, who is serving a suspension. Assuming that they aren't able to compete and train like they did as younger, less suspended men, who can emerge from the pack of possible young talent?

Though I want to tell you Nahshon Garrett is the future at the weight class, I'm hopeful for the improvement and/or change and I think that could come with Jesse Delgado. His current funk-first style won't work at the international level, but he can be taught to tighten up his exposure and fin more of his impressive attacks. Delgado will finish up college in 2015 and have a little more than a year to make those improvements.

It's a wide-open and unproven weight class, but given the right tools and training Delgado could be the surprise member of the 2016 Olympic team.

Prediction: Jesse Delgado

65 kilos

The buzz around Aaron Pico has been so loud that many wrestling fans have been deaf to the successes of 2013 World Team member Bren Metcalf. Tough-nosed and with an ever-improving left side hi-crotch, the two-time NCAA champion has returned to top form in 2014. Though Pico is sure to improve on his recent struggles at a junior-level tournament in Turkey, the outcome did signal that the young grappler will need more time, strength and maturity to upend the older, stronger and mentally tough Metcalf by 2016.

If any other wrestler does challenge for the position it might be Logan Stieber, who has shown the ability to win at both the NCAA and international level. He'd have to control his funk (back exposures are almost always bad in freestyle) to make a run at Metcalf and the world, but should he find that stricter style he emerges as the top opponent to Metcalf heading into 2016.

Prediction: Brent Metcalf

74 kilos

The toughest weight class at the men's freestyle tournament, 74 kilos will put a lot of butts in the seats over the next few years. But will it matter? Will anyone beat Burroughs?

Jordan Burroughs was pushed by David Taylor at the U.S. Open in Las Vegas (Photo/John Sachs, Tech-Fall.com)

David Taylor has the best chance to beat Burroughs in a head-to-head match, but he's having a tough time making it past Kyle Dake. So can Dake beat Burroughs? Maybe. But with the new passivity interpretations and fleeing calls, it's unlikely that his squat-and-stall style can do enough to beat the three-time World titleholder.

Essentially the weight class will come down to experience, and that tips to Burroughs. He knows how to win in freestyle and though he's made some mistakes in matches in the past, they've been the brief exception. He's given up takedowns and exposures, but in the end he's always found a way to beat both Dake and Taylor. Knowing how to win can't be taught and it isn't easily forgotten.

Prediction: Jordan Burroughs

86 kilos

Keith Gavin has been No. 1 in the 86-kilo weight class, but it's a weight class primed for a change at the top. The most successful of all of Gavin's competitors is Clayton Foster, who has beaten Olympic bronze medalist Ehsan Lashgari (Iran) and two-time World champion Ibragim Aldatov (Ukraine).

Gavin has been a great placeholder for the American squad, and though he's likely to retain the spot in 2014 he will be in his 30's by 2016. Facing Foster is a tall order late in a career, but by 2016 he won't be Gavin's biggest problem.

It's highly likely that in 2016 Gavin's toughest opponent will be Ed Ruth. I'd been hesitant to believe. But Rutht's recent steamrolling of Spain's Taymuraz Friev at the Beat the Streets event (Gavin lost to Friev the Paris Golden Grand Prix) showed his ability to engage and push foreign competitors in a way that both Foster and Gavin cannot.

Ruth will still need to wrestle past a plethora of competitors, but with focus on freestyle, Cael in his corner, and two years of international experience, Ruth won't just be the best wrestler in America at 86 kilos, he will probably be one of the best in the world.

Prediction: Ed Ruth

97 kilos

Jake Varner won the U.S. Open title at 97 kilos in Las Vegas (Photo/Tony Rotundo, WrestlersAreWarriors.com)

Winners win and when you're the defending Olympic champion it means that you are the No. 1 seed heading into the Olympic cycle. If one wrestler seems capable of beating Varner in 2016 it's Kyle Snyder, who looked remarkable against Khadzhimurat Gatsalov of Russia, a five-time World champion and Olympic champion.

Despite Snyder and possibly J'den Cox mixing it up with Varner, Coach Cael, experience of competition and a fresh outlook will prove to be the right mix of motivation for the champion wrestler.

Varner doesn't lose with frequency, and with rules even better suited to his controlled style, it's likely that he will keep improving his strategy and finding tough wins. He also has an incredible ankle pick and foot sweep.

Prediction: Jake Varner

125 kilos

I'm a big fan of Tervel Dlagnev, but as he creeps into his 30's it will be difficult for him to maintain the style that has provided him the most success.

He's already facing a lot of competitors in the United States with Tyrell Fortune and Dom Bradley putting up substantial fights. However, I think it will be 2014 NCAA champions Nick Gwiazdowski who shows up the competition in 2016.

He's an admitted long shot, but after beating Tony Nelson twice in freestyle (once by technical fall) and putting together a technically proficient NCAA tournament, he's shown that though he's young there is potentially a World medal in his future. With specific training and a body two years bigger and tougher, he should be ready to make a big splash on the international scene.

It might be minor point, but Gwiz will also be coming off his final season of NCAA wrestling, and some of America's best finishes over the past few years (Jake Herbert in 2009, Jordan Burroughs in 2011) have come from competitors who had recently finished college.

Prediction: Nick Gwiazdowski

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