I spent a great deal of time last year on the math behind the scarcity of the bracket buster, so I've gone ahead and used that statistical introduction to prep this year's selections.
Math is hard. Here we go ...
There have been seven unseeded wrestlers in the semifinals since 2010: Two in 2013, one in 2012, one in 2011 and three in 2010:
2013: Drake Houdashelt (Missouri) beat No. 11 seed Andrew Alton (Penn State), No. 6 seed Dylan Ness (Minnesota) and unseeded Kevin Tao (American) before losing to Jason Chamberlain (Boise State), 7-3, in the semifinals. Houdashelt would go on to place sixth.
Northern Iowa's David Bonin beat Bobby Barnhisel (Navy), Kyle Bradley (Missouri), and No. 12 seed Jedd Moore (Virginia) before losing to Northwestern's Jason Welch, 7-1, in the semifinals.
2012: Hofstra's Justin Accordino (149) beat No. 12 seed Ivan Lopouchanski (Purdue), No. 5 seed Ian Miller (Kent State) and unseeded Nick Lester (Oklahoma) before losing to Frank Molinaro (Penn State), 5-0. Accordino finished in sixth place.
2011: Utah Valley's Ben Kjar (125) beat unseeded Steve Bonanno (Hofstra), No. 4 seed James Nicholson (Old Dominion) and No. 5 seed Zach Sanders (Minnesota) before losing to eventual champion Anthony Robles (Arizona State), 4-2. Kjar took fourth place.
2010: Purdue 125-pounder Cashe Quiroga (Purdue) beat No. 7 seed James Nicholson (Oold Dominion), unseeded Joe Langel (Rutgers), and unseeded Fred Santaite (Boston U) to make the semifinals where he lost to eventual champion Matt McDonough (Iowa), 14-3. Quiroga finished in sixth place.
Binghamton's Justin Lister (157) beat No. 11 seed Neil Erisman (Oklahoma State), unseeded Thomas Scotton (North Carolina) and No. 3 seed Jesse Dong (Virginia Tech) before losing to runner-up Chase Pami (Cal Poly), 14-3. Lister finished in fourth place.
Oklahoma's Tyler Caldwell (165) beat No. 12 seed Paul Young (Indiana), No. 5 seed Colt Sponseller (Ohio State) and unseeded Chris Brown (Old Dominion) to make the semifinals and where he lost to Andrew Howe (Wisconsin), 4-1. Caldwell earned fifth place.
In the past there were only 12 seeded wrestlers and it was still a statistical improbability that any unseeded wrestler would make the semifinals. Of the 160 available semifinal spots over the past four years only seven went to unseeded wrestlers. That means 840 unseeded wrestlers had an opportunity to make the semifinals, but only seven of those men accomplished the task.
Your unseeded wrestler has less than a .83 percent chance of being this season's bracket buster.
Over the past three years we've given ourselves 30 picks and have so far been unable to guess the bracket busters, making the likelihood of you choosing the bracket buster as likely as your nephew catching this bear in a spladle.
The wrestlers listed below are not necessarily the best unseeded wrestlers, just the ones who might have a path to the semifinals that is both conceivable and assisted by other upsets. If you look above at the last three years you can see that almost all the semifinalists ran into an unseeded wrestler in the quarterfinals or second round. They didn't have to wrestle three consecutive top-12 opponents, because other potential busters were assisting them on their forward march.
Also a factor is the pre-existing injuries to seeded opponents in your quarter of the bracket. If just one No. 5 seed comes in with a broken rib and it could signal an upset that could lead to the type of runs we read about above.
But again, let's play this honest, there is less than a one percent chance of any unseeded wrestler making it to the semifinals, much less the ones you or I select and justify. Know too that almost every Big Ten wrestler earned a seed leaving mostly ACC and EWL wrestlers from which to choose.
I recommend you just make your own picks and leave your choices in the comments section!
Nathan Kraisser nearly upset Jesse Delgado at the NCAAs (Photo/Tony Rotundo, WrestlersAreWarriors.com)First Round: Injured Josh Martinez (Air Force) earned the No. 4 seed, but was losing 10-2 to Wyoming's Tyler Cox when the match was called. Kraisser is funky and creative enough to manage this first-round upset.
Second Round: Earl Hall (Iowa State) has the talent to make it past No. 13 Evan Silver (Stanford), but both wrestlers are good matchups for Kraisser.
Quarterfinals: No. 5 Dylan Peters (UNI) is 31-4 on the season. He should win, but Kraisser has a 30 percent chance of pulling this upset.
133: Dennis Gustafson (Virginia Tech)
First Round: No. 7 Cashe Quiroga (Purdue) shouldn't be much of a problem for the ACC champion. His defense is better than most anyone in the nation and should win by 3+ points.
Second Round: No. 10 Nick Soto (Chattanooga) is a solid matchup and someone Gustafson has seen in the past.
Quarterfinals: Getting to wrestle No. 2 A.J. Schopp (Edinboro) would be impressive enough and though he's long odds, I was so impressed with him at ACCs that nothing would surprise me.
141: Undrakhbayar (The Citadel)
First Round: The returning All-American failed to get seeded after a season with questionable losses. However, Ugi wasn't training full-time due to an NCAA oversight on his redshirt. Once he is in the the mix, he's as good as anyone. Look for him to get ridden, but it might not matter, as he's a terrible matchup for No. 3 Zain Retherford (Penn State).
Second Round: No. 14 Edgar Bright shouldn't be a tough match for Ugi to win, and would likely be considered the odds-on favorite.
Quarterfinals: No. 11 Joey Lazor (Northern Iowa) makes it past No. 6 Chris Dardanes (Minnesota), but won't be able to deal with Ugi's attacks.
149: James English (Penn State)
First Round: Swept up in the week of attention, unseeded James English (Penn State) will be on a mission to prove his team worthiness. No. 12 Dylan Cottrell of Appalachian State is 26-1, but English should find a way to beat him and steal the seed.
Second Round: No. 5 Jason Tsirtsis (Northwestern) is a long shot for English, but if he wants to make a run, it'll be because Bryce Busler had already beaten Tsirtsis.
Quarterfinals: No. 4 Kendric Maple (Oklahoma) would be a tall order for English, but his style stands a shot at pulling the upset. Also watch out for Tywan Claxton (Ohio) in the first round to possibly give Maple a scare.
157: Joey Napoli (Lehigh)
First Round: His upset run will be decided in the first round. If he can make is past No. 2 seed Derek St. John (Iowa), he'll pull off the biggest upset of the round and give himself the opportunity to march forward.
Second Round: No. 15 Cody Pack (South Dakota State)
Quarterfinals: No. 10 Blaise Butler (UVA) is a 50/50 matchup, and the last wrestler in Napoli's run
165: Zach Toal (Missouri)
First Round: All Toal's losses are to top-seeded wrestlers with the notable exception of Shaun'Qae McMurtry (Northern Illinois). It's a test for him to get past No. 7 Pierce Harger (Northwestern), but it's possible.
Second Round: He'd need to avenge an early season loss to No. 10 Cooper Moore (Northern Iowa)
Quarterfinals: Who better to pull the upset of No. 2 Tyler Caldwell (Oklahoma State) than a kid coached by Sammie Henson, who was a big part of Caldwell's development at Oklahoma.
174: Bryce Hammond (CSU Bakersfield)
First Round: Not a lot of good selections, but I chose Hammond last season and think that with the right game plan he could challenge No. 4 Mike Evans (Iowa) in his sophomore season.
Second Round: He's my favorite to beat No. 13 Hayden Zilmer (North Dakota State) in a tight match.
Quarterfinals: Ten percent chance he gets past No. 5 Matt Brown (Penn State), but given the opportunity, the young California star might achieve something great.
184: Vic Avery (Edinboro)
First Round: Fighting Scots always perform at NCAAs and Avery should have been seeded. He'll pull the upset of No. 5 Ethan Lofthouse (Iowa) in the first round and get help later.
Second Round: Though he lost 9-3 earlier in the season to Ophir Bernstein (Brown), the Edinboro conditioning program gets him the win this time.
Quarterfinals: The helping hand will come from overlooked No. 13 Jack Dechow (Old Dominion) who will give No. 4 Max Thomusseit (Pitt) all he can handle and push past him. Avery had previously wrestled Thomusseit to a 4-1 loss.
197: Zach Nye (Virginia)
First Round: There are no easy calls at 197 pounds and though Nye is raw, he's coming off a career win against two-time ACC champion Cristian Boley of Maryland. To beat No. 4 Scott Schiller (Minnesota) will take guts and luck, both of which favor Nye.
Second Round: He'll keep the part going against No. 13 Danny Mitchell (American)
Quarterfinals: Perhaps No. 5 Kyven Gadson (Iowa State) will be taken aback by Nye's style. Slim chance he makes it past, but after a day of upsets anything would be possible.
285: Ty Walz (Virginia Tech)
Pigtail: He looked solid at ACCs will cruise past Nick Tavanello (Ohio State).
First Round: It won't look like an upset when he sticks with and finally pushes past No. 8 J.T. Felix (Boise State).
Second Round: No. 9 Connor Medbery (Wisconsin)
Quarterfinals: The upset of the tournament will come from unseeded Joe Stolfi (Bucknell), who beats Tony Nelson in double OT snore-ride, only to fall to Walz by a takedown.
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