2012: Hofstra's Justin Accordino (149) who beat No. 12 seed Ivan Lopouchanski (Purdue), No. 5 seed Ian Miller (Kent State) and unseeded Nick Lester (Oklahoma) before losing to Frank Molinaro 5-0. Accordino finished in sixth place.
2011: Utah Valley's Ben Kjar (125) beat unseeded Steve Bonnano (Hofstra), No. 4 seed James Nicholson (Old Dominion) and No. 5 seed Zach Sanders (Minnesota) before losing to eventual champion Anthony Robles (Arizona State) 4-2. Kjar took fourth place.
2010: Purdue 125-pounder Cashe Quiroga (Purdue) beat No. 7 seed James Nicholson (ODU), unseeded Joe Langel (Rutgers), and unseeded Fred Santaite (Boston) to make the semifinals where he lost to eventual champion Matt McDonough 14-3. Quiroga finished in sixth place.
Binghamton's Justin Lister (157) beat No. 11 seed Neil Erisman (Oklahoma State), unseeded Thomas Scotton (North Carolina) and No. 3 seed Jesse Dong (Virginia Tech) before losing to runner-up Chase Pami (Cal Poly) 14-3. Lister finished in fourth place.
Oklahoma's Tyler Caldwell (165) beat No. 12 seed Paul Young (Indiana), No. 5 seed Colt Sponseller (Ohio State) and unseeded Chris Brown (ODU) to make the semifinals and where he lost to Andrew Howe (Wisconsin) 4-1. Caldwell earned in fifth place.
It's a statistical improbability that your wrestler will be Cinderella. Of the 120 available semifinal spots over the past three years only FIVE went to unseeded wrestlers. That means 630 unseeded wrestlers had an opportunity to make the semifinals, but only FIVE of those men accomplished the task. Your unseeded wrestler has less than a .8 percent chance of being this season's bracket busters. Even when given ten chances over two years we've been unable to guess these upsets correctly. So your wrestler becoming this season's bracket buster is about as likely as your nephew catching this bear in a spladle.
The wrestlers listed below are not necessarily the best unseeded wrestlers, just the ones who might have a path to the semifinals that is both conceivable and assisted by other upsets. If you look above at the last three years you can see that almost all the semifinalists ran into an unseeded wrestler in the quarterfinals or second round. They didn't have to wrestle three consecutive top 12 opponents, because other potential busters were assisting them on their forward march. Also a factor is the pre-existing injuries to seeded opponents in your quarter of the bracket. If just one No. 5 seed comes in with a broken rib and it could signal an upset that could lead to the type of runs we read about above.
But again, let's play this honest, there is less than a one-percent chance of any unseeded wrestler making it to the semifinals, much less the ones you or I select and justify. I recommend you just enjoy the process and if one of them hits be sure to leave your congratulatory notes in the comments section!
125: Christian Cullinan (Central Michigan)
The Tom Borrelli-coached wrestler is coming off a disappointing MAC tournament, which dropped him out of seeding contention. However, if he's able to capture his midseason form, he's capable of wrestling for an upset.
First Round: Joe DeAngelo (North Carolina State)
DeAngelo (7-7) stole the fourth qualification spot when Shane Gentry (Maryland) was injured in the semifinals.
Second Round: No. 2 Nico Megaludis (Penn State)
Cullinan split his two matchups this season with Pitt's Anthony Zanetta, who beat Nico Megaludis of Penn State 3-2 in December.
Quarterfinals: Nick Soto (Chattanooga)
Soto could wrestle No. 5 Jarrod Garnett in the second round. Though Garnett is capable of winning the tournament, one of his two losses this season came to Soto, a 10-9 decision in November.
133: Vinny Dellefave (Rutgers)
Another wrestler with a disappointing conference tournament, Dellefave was pinned by Matt Bystol (Columbia) in the EIWA quarterfinals.
First Round: No. 12 Jordan Conaway (Penn State)
Lowest seeded wrestler in the bracket, Conaway has improved all season. He beat Dellefave 6-1 in February, but with some familiarity and tape, Dellefave could manage his first upset.
Second Round: No. 5 Chris Dardanes
There is little objective reason to think that Dellfave would pull the upset. However, Dardanes wrestles a lot of close matches, which could allow for an inspired Dellefave to create a tight match and create opportunities to win late.
Quarterfinals: Sam Speno (North Carolina State)
The unseeded NC State wrestler has a win over Jordan Conaway and is a dangerous, salty wrestler. Given head coach Pat Popolizio's tendency to get his wrestlers to perform at NCAAs, there's a chance Speno could be the guy to make a streak, though ultimately fall to Dellefave.
Zach Neibert enters the NCAAs with a 16-9 record (Photo/Mark Beshey, The Guillotine)The No. 13 ranked wrestler has seen a lot of very tough opponents this season. He’s lost many of his close matches to top opponents but with that experience could find ways to improve once at the tournament.
First Round: No. 11 Mike Nevinger (Cornell)
The Cornell wrestler is coming off a surprising 4-3 loss to Franklin & Marshall's Richard Durso in the EIWA semifinals.
Second Round: No. 6 K. Undrakhbayar
Neibert lost the first meeting 3-1, but if he makes it past Nevinger, and figures out Ugi's style on their feet, he should be in position for the upset.
Quarterfinals: No. 3 Mike Mangrum (Oregon State)
Nevinger lost to Mangrum 7-3 in February, but with their first match behind him, Neibert can defend against the attacks that caused him problems.
149: Donnie Corby (Central Michigan)
Corby is still one of the most accomplished unseeded and unranked guys at the weight with wins over No. 15 David Habat (Edinboro) and No. 19 Derek Valenti (Virginia), a 2011 All-American. The Chippewa's advancement will be dependent on the health of Air Force's Cole VonOhlen.
First Round: Dan Osterman (Michigan State)
Corby won their last meeting 3-2.
Second Round: No. 4 Cole VonOhlen (Air Force)
If VonOhlen's shoulder isn't better by this match he'll be in for a long seven minutes against the heavy-handed Corby.
Quarterfinals: No. 5 Steve Santos (Columbia)
I like Santos to be an All-American, but Corby matches up well, and when it comes to quarterfinals anything is possible.
157: Georgi Ivanov (Boise State)
Ivanov is on a 12-match win streak since losing to R.J. Pena (Oregon State) in a dual meet on January 5. He avenged that loss at the conference tournament and picked up a win against No 12 Jedd Moore (Virginia)
First Round: Dan Zilverberg (Minnesota)
Tough opponent for Ivanov to face first round, but has lost to common opponent R.J. Pena.
Second Round: Taylor Walsh (Indiana)
Walsh lost a 4-3 decision to No. 3 Joey Napoli at Midlands. Familiarity breeds opportunity and Walsh wins their match only to get knocked off by Ivanov.
Quarterfinals: No. 11 Walter Peppelman (Harvard)
If Peppelman can hold Alex Dieringer down he's advancing to the quarters. Ivanov gave Moore fits on bottom at Virginia Duals and earned a reversal. He can repeat the same against Peppelman.
165: Pierce Harger (Northwestern)
Talented training partner to top-seeded 157 Northwestern wrestler Jason Welch, Harger is in the best position in a bracket that doesn't offer much hope on the top and bottom quarters versus Kyle Dake and David Taylor.
First Round: No. 4 Tyler Caldwell (Oklahoma State)
Everyone is on the lookout for Dake and Taylor to screw up in the first round. Maybe Caldwell gets distracted and Harger converts an early takedown to a tough ride from top? As we know, there will be upsets in the first round and given the emotional ups and downs Caldwell has experienced in 2012-2013, he's as ripe as any wrestler to fall in an early round.
Second Round: Johnny Greisheimer (Edinboro)
Harger won their December matchup 5-3.
Quarterfinals: No. 5 Steven Monk (North Dakota State)
When you're hot, you're hot. Monk's top game is a watered down version of what Harger gets every day from Welch. The Wildcat can create scoring opportunities from overly aggressive tilt attempts and high leg rides.
174: Bryce Hammond (Cal State-Bakersfield)
A much tougher wrestler than his 32-8 record indicates. Hammond is capable of big points from creative scrambles.
First Round: No. 6 Logan Storley (Minnesota)
Maybe Storley's Big Ten tournament was as a fluke, or maybe he was hurt. Either way, there is a possibility that he's not emotionally or physically 100 percent. Hammond has seen the brackets and knows he's wrestling a possibly wounded opponent.
Second Round: No. 11 Blake Staufer (Arizona State)
Hammond won their last meeting at Pac-12's by a 10-4 decision.
Quarterfinals: Lee Munster (Northwestern)
On a run of his own, Munster beats Mike Evans (they haven't met this season), but is tripped up by Hammond who has found his form as a freshman.
184: Daniel Rinaldi (Rutgers)
With the exception of last week's 7-2 decision loss to Brown wrestler Ophir Bernstein, the Rutgers wrestler's only losses came to top five opponents. He's way undervalued as an athletic talent and one of the best unseeded wrestlers in the tournament.
First Round: C.J. Magrum (Ohio State)
They've lost to the same people, but not much else to go on except Rinaldi and Rutgers have something to prove in 2013.
Second Round: Casey NewBerg (Kent State)
Ductin Kilgore's wrestling partner knocks off the dinged up Robert Hamlin (Lehigh) in the first round, setting up the meeting with Rinaldi. The Rutgers wrestler pulls out the hard-fought win.
Quarterfinals: No. 11 Mike Larson (Missouri)
Larson is 1-2 versus No. 6 Ryan Loder during the year and faces him in the second round. Rinaldi wins the quarterfinal matchup and moves onto the semifinals.
Mario Gonzalez was edged by Blake Rosholt at the NWCA/Cliff Keen National Duals last month, but could get another crack at him in the second round of the NCAAs (Photo/Mark Beshey, The Guillotine)There aren't many quadrants from which to launch a successful semifinal run, and with Matt Wilps as his expected opponent, Gonzalez is the longest shot on the list. He is coming off a nice Big Ten tournament where he beat Nathan Burak (Iowa).
Pigtail: Jace Bennett (Cornell)
Gonzalez has a win over common opponent Caleb Kolb of Nebraska, who Bennett lost to 7-5.
First Round: Kyven Gadson (Iowa State)
Though I have Gadson as an All-American, I can see a warmed-up Gonzalez doing well against an emotionally-drained Gadsen in the first round. I'll be pulling for Gadson, who did win the pair's only matchup of the season, 9-5.
Second Round: Blake Rosholt (Oklahoma State)
The duo wrestled to sudden victory in late February, with Rosholt coming away the 3-2 winner. Gonzalez earns the tight win at NCAAs.
Quarterfinals: Richard Perry (Bloomsburg)
Perry wrestled No. 3 Matt Wilps to a 5-4 decision at the EWL conference tournament and sudden victory tiebreaker in January. If Perry upsets Wilps, which is the tightest matchup any of the top four seeds face at 197, it could give Gonzalez a matchup he likes. Perry has only faced one other Big Ten wrestler this season, Northwestern's Alex Polizzi.
285: Jeremy Johnson (Ohio)
Heavyweight is the most dependable 1-2-3-4 semifinal showcase in the tournament. Unseeded wrestlers almost never make a run, and that'll stay the same this season, with the possible exception of Jeremy Johnson.
First Round: Jimmy Lawson (Penn State)
Johnson beat Lawson 5-2 at the Southern Scuffle.
Second Round: Alan Gelogaev (Oklahoma State)
This will be a battle of mobile, high-scoring heavyweights, making almost anything possible, including the major upset. The two haven't met this season, though Z pinned Johnson last season at the Reno Tournament of Champions.
Quarterfinals: No. 10 J.T. Felix (Boise State)
Felix is a huge talent that could give Telford a challenge in the second round. Johnson lost a lopsided 8-3 decision to Felix in December, which doesn't bode well. But if he's made it this far, let's face it, just about anything is possible.
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