Here are five reasons Penn State will not win the NCAA title in St. Louis.
PSU's Nick Suriano earned the No. 3 seed at 125 pounds despite defaulting at Big Tens (Photo/Juan Garcia)Reason 1: Nick Suriano's health
Coming into the season, Nick Suriano was expected to make an immediate impact ... and he did. Many people had him pegged as a potential NCAA finalist, and he looked to be on his way before suffering an injury in his final regular season match against Oklahoma State. After how he appeared at the Big Ten Championships just a few days ago, it's hard to envision him scoring any points for the Nittany Lions. Suriano, as tough as he is, was limping to the mat just to give an injury default. It was also reported he has been on crutches ever since hurting his foot in the dual meet against Oklahoma State. With only a week until the NCAAs it would be hard to picture even a fifty percent Nick Suriano next Thursday. Without Suriano, this changes the whole dynamic of the team race and opens the door for Oklahoma State 125-pounder Nick Piccininni. Looking at the brackets, Piccininni will have a hard round of 16 bout against Josh Rodriguez of North Dakota State, who he just beat in double overtime in the Big 12 finals. If he is to get by that match he will match up with No. 1 Thomas Gilman of Iowa, who is undefeated on the season.
Piccininni's consolation road is where the Cowboys could score major points as he will likely face American's Josh Terao and Nebraska's Tim Lambert, which are both winnable matches for the Cowboy 125-pounder that would push him into the third-place match.
PSU's Jimmy Gulibon battles OSU's Dean Heil at the NWCA National Duals (Photo/Mark Lundy, Lutte-Lens.com)Reason 2: Penn State will score minimal points at the first three weights
This somewhat coincides with the first reason, Nick Suriano's health, but it also relates to having no NCAA qualifier at 133 pounds, and a Jimmy Gulibon (141) that doesn't look like the old Jimmy. Gulibon was pinned three times at the Big Tens, resulting in him taking eighth place. Gulibon will open his NCAA tournament with Michigan State's Javier Gasca III, one of the wrestlers who pinned him at the Big Tens. If he drops his first match to Gasca, Gulibon could face Maryland's Ryan Diehl, who also pinned him at the Big Tens. I feel these minimal points at the first three weight classes will come back to bite the Nittany Lions as the team with the best shot to knock them off went 28-2 in their conference tournament.
Reason 3: Oklahoma State brings all 10 wrestlers to St. Louis
Not only is Oklahoma State bringing all 10 of its wrestlers to the NCAAs, but realistically speaking, all 10 could place in St. Louis. All 10 of Oklahoma State's starters are seeded in the top nine. The only one that is seeded outside the coveted All-American spot of eighth is Chandler Rogers at 165 pounds. As many know, Rogers is capable of pulling off upsets and electrifying the arena. He has a win this season over Missouri's Daniel Lewis, who is the sixth seed in the field. The fact that the Cowboys have "ten bullets in the chamber" will help them push by Penn State in the team race next week.
OSU's Joe Smith won a Big 12 title in dominant fashion, and is seeded No. 5 in St. Louis (Photo/Mark Lundy, Lutte-Lens.com)Reason 4: Joe Smith is BACK
This season has not been the best season of Joe Smith's career. Last season he had everyone's attention in the wrestling world when he wrestled both national finalists, Isaiah Martinez (Illinois) and Jason Nolf (Penn State), to close bouts. After finishing in seventh place at last year's NCAA tournament, Joe Smith got off to a rocky start in his sophomore campaign. However, last weekend at the Big 12 Championships, Smith looked to be back to form as he went on to win the title without surrendering a point throughout the tournament. Even his father and head coach of the Oklahoma State Cowboys was quoted as saying, "I saw some things in him that he had not did all year." Smith is a huge cog for the Cowboys coming into St. Louis and they will need him to wrestle to or above his No. 5 seed next week.
Reason 5: NCAA finalist potential
Oklahoma State may not have sure-fire NCAA finalists like Penn State does with their one-two punch at 149/157, or Ohio State does with Olympic champion Kyle Snyder, but the Cowboys do have potential to push wrestlers through to the finals on Saturday night. Although the Cowboys do have returning NCAA champion Dean Heil (141), he is viewed by many as one of the most likely No. 1 seeds to fall before the finals. Despite that, Heil has been undefeated this season and has to be the favorite going into NCAAs to win the 141-pound championship. In addition to Heil, the Cowboys also have finalist potential at 149 pounds with Anthony Collica as the No. 2 seed, and Kaid Brock as the No. 3 seed at 133 pounds. Collica has been rock-solid all season, losing only to Zain Retherford of Penn State and third-seeded Lavion Mayes of Missouri. Mayes is someone Collica has gone back-and-forth with in the past. They are 1-1 against each other this season, and it's a match that is considered by most a tossup. Brock is coming off a close loss in the Big 12 finals to South Dakota State's Seth Gross, who is seeded No. 2. The two would meet in the semifinals on Friday night, and Brock could very well could flip the script and punch his ticket into Saturday night's NCAA championship match.
Summary
I expect the team race to be neck-and-neck between Penn State and Oklahoma State. Penn State's sure-fire NCAA finalists and bonus point machines will be tough for the Cowboys to match, but I believe the depth of the Cowboys will pay huge dividends come next weekend. One or two matches either way could make the difference in which team is hoisting the first place trophy in the middle of the Scottrade Center on Saturday night, and which team is wondering what could have been.
All we can do now is wait and see.
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