Matt McDonough defeated Nico Megaludis twice last season (Photo/Bill Ennis)No. 1 Penn State battles No. 3 Iowa tonight at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City. The dual meet will be broadcast live on the Big Ten Network at 8 p.m. CT/9 p.m. ET. Below is a match-by-match breakdown with my predictions.
125: No. 2 Nico Megaludis (Penn State) vs. No. 1 Matt McDonough (Iowa)
The top-ranked McDonough had two wins over Megaludis last season, 3-1 (SV) in the February dual meet and 4-1 in the NCAA finals. While Megaludis did keep the previous matches close on the scoreboard, McDonough controlled the action and was never in serious danger of losing. McDonough has six wins over ranked opponents this season, but his only win over a top ten opponent was a 9-4 victory over No. 8 Matt Snyder of Virginia on Nov. 16. He's coming off a 6-3 victory over No. 13 David Thorn of Minnesota -- a match where McDonough gave up the first takedown and dominated the rest of the way. Megaludis has three wins over top ten opponents, but did suffer a 3-2 loss to Pitt's Anthony Zanetta, who is redshirting, on Dec. 2 at the Nittany Lion Open.
Bottom Line: McDonough, riding a 41-match win streak, is undeniably the favorite. A Megaludis victory would be surprising, but not shocking.
Prediction: McDonough by decision. (Iowa +3)
133: Jordan Conaway (Penn State) vs. No. 2 Tony Ramos (Iowa)
Ramos has had only one competitive match this season, and that was a 3-2 victory over Oklahoma State's Jon Morrison. His only other regular decision was a six-point victory over All-American Chris Dardanes of Minnesota last Saturday. Every other win for Ramos this season has come with bonus points. He has six pins, one technical fall, and seven major decisions. This weight class was a question mark for Penn State coming into the season, but Conaway has stepped in and filled the spot nicely. He has reeled off four consecutive victories with his signature win coming over two-time All-American Tyler Graff of Wisconsin on Jan. 18. Graff led that match 7-3 after two periods, but Conaway wore the Badger junior out and scored two takedowns in the final 30 seconds to force sudden victory. Conaway then won the match with a takedown in sudden victory. It's Conaway's only win over a ranked wrestler, and two of his four losses have come to unranked wrestlers.
Bottom Line: Ramos has never lost a match in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. He's 15-0, which includes a victory over Jordan Oliver of Oklahoma State. He's the probative favorite in this match and will be looking for bonus points.
Prediction: Ramos by major decision (Iowa +4)
141: Bryan Pearsall (Penn State) vs. No. 8 Mark Ballweg (Iowa)
Ballweg is quietly putting together a strong senior campaign wrestling in the Hawkeye lineup for the first time at 141 pounds. (He was the starter at 149 pounds in 2010-11.) The only blemish on his record this season is a 6-4 loss to No. 2 Hunter Stieber of Ohio State on Jan. 4. He is coming off one of the bigger wins of his career -- a 3-1 victory over Minnesota's Nick Dardanes last Saturday in a tossup match the Hawkeyes needed. Pearsall is a senior who has steadily improved throughout his career. He was ranked earlier this season, but fell out of the rankings after losing to some unranked wrestlers. Pearsall's most notable win this season came over West Virginia's Nathan Pennesi, who is currently ranked 14th. He has won four straight matches, with his most recent victory coming over then-No. 19 Ridge Kiley of Nebraska on Sunday.
Bottom Line: On paper, Ballweg is the favorite, but Pearsall is a capable wrestler who has been in big matches, so expect this to be a very competitive and hard-fought match.
Prediction: Ballweg by decision (Iowa +3)
149: No. 8 Andrew Alton (Penn State) vs. Mike Kelly (Iowa)
Andrew Alton, like his twin brother Dylan, missed a month of the season for a violation of rules on Dec 22. Since returning to the lineup on Jan. 20, Alton has gone 4-1 with his most notable victory being a 3-2 decision over Ohio State backup Ian Paddock. His lone loss came in his last outing when he was pinned by Nebraska's Jake Sueflohn on Sunday. Alton was leading Sueflohn 5-1 midway through the second period, but seemed to run out of gas and eventually surrendered his lead before getting pinned in the third period. Kelly started the season by winning 10 of his first 12 matches. During that stretch his most notable victory came over Lehigh's Shane Welsh, who is currently ranked 17th. However, since the Big Ten dual season started on Jan. 4, Kelly has gone 0-4 with three of those four losses coming to wrestlers currently ranked. He is coming off a six-point loss to Minnesota's Dylan Ness on Saturday.
Bottom Line: Andrew Alton is the superior wrestler and should win. Alton has 10 pins in 18 matches this season, so Penn State could be looking at bonus points here.
Prediction: Alton by pin (Penn State +6)
157: No. 5 Dylan Alton (Penn State) vs. No. 1 Derek St. John (Iowa)
The top-ranked St. John is undefeated with wins over two wrestlers ranked in the top ten: No. 3 Joey Napoli of Lehigh (6-0) and No. 9 Alex Dieringer of Oklahoma State (8-4). His closest match this season was a 4-2 victory over Ohio State's Josh Demas on Jan. 4. Alton enters tonight's match with a 17-2 record and riding a 12-match win streak. He is coming off a 3-1 victory over Nebraska's James Green, a returning All-American, on Sunday. His other notable wins this season have come against No. 2 Jason Welch of Northwestern at the NWCA All-Star Classic and No. 12 Taylor Walsh of Indiana on Dec. 9.
Bottom Line: These two highly ranked wrestlers know each other well having met twice last season (Big Tens and NCAAs), with St. John wining both meetings 3-1. Expect another tight match that will likely be decided by a takedown.
Prediction: St. John by decision (Iowa +3)
165: No. 2 David Taylor (Penn State) vs. No. 13 Nick Moore (Iowa)
Taylor has crushed every wrestler he has faced this season not named Kyle Dake. He has earned bonus points in all 17 of his wins this season, and that includes a 10-0 victory over No. 3 Tyler Caldwell of Oklahoma State at the Southern Scuffle. Fifteen of those 17 bonus point victories have come by pin or technical fall. Only Dake, Caldwell, and Indiana's Ryan LeBlanc have gone the distance with Taylor. Moore, who took over the starting spot at 165 pounds after Mike Evans moved up to 174 pounds, has won 11 of 14 matches this season. He placed seventh at the Midlands, where he took losses to No. 10 Corey Lear and No. 12 Mark Lewandowski of Buffalo. His only other loss this season came against Caldwell, 3-2, on Jan. 13. Moore is coming off a big win, 8-2, over Minnesota's Cody Yohn, which helped propel the Hawkeyes over the Gophers.
Bottom Line: Taylor will win and earn bonus. The only question is whether it will be a major decision, technical fall, or pin.
Prediction: Taylor by technical fall (Penn State +5)
174: No. 4 Matt Brown (Penn State) vs. No. 6 Mike Evans (Iowa)
Brown, a backup to NCAA champion Ed Ruth last season, started his first season in the Nittany Lion lineup by reeling off 12 straight victories. Brown's first loss came in the Southern Scuffle semifinals when he was pinned by Minnesota's Logan Storley, a wrestler he defeated the previous season. His only other loss this season came on Sunday when he fell 10-7 to Nebraska's Robert Kokesh. Brown's notable wins this season have come against No. 13 Greg Zannetti of Rutgers, No. 14 Nathaniel Brown of Lehigh, No. 15 Todd Porter of Missouri, No. 16 Jon Fausey of Virginia, No. 17 Cody Walters of Ohio, and Turtogtokh Luvsandorj of The Citadel. Evans, a returning NCAA qualifier, started the season at 165 pounds before moving up to 174 pounds in late November. His only blemishes this season have been one-point losses to the No. 1 and No. 2 wrestlers in the country, Oklahoma State's Chris Perry and Storley. Evans has notable wins over No. 7 Nick Heflin of Ohio State and No. 10 Dan Yates of Michigan.
Bottom Line: This match is difficult to forecast because both wrestlers are competing at a high level this season ... and have only lost to wrestlers ranked in the top three. Both wrestle a physical, punishing style. It's arguably the most pivotal match in the dual meet, and whichever team wins this match will be in the driver's seat to win the dual meet.
Prediction: Brown by decision (Penn State +3)
184: No. 1 Ed Ruth (Penn State) vs. No. 14 Ethen Lofthouse (Iowa)
Ruth, like his NCAA champion teammate Taylor, has been racking up bonus points and dominating highly ranked wrestlers all season. He comes into tonight's match with a 19-0 record, which includes seven pins, three technical falls, five major decisions, and a forfeit. His only non-bonus point victories have come against wrestlers ranked in the top eight: No. 3 Robert Hamlin of Lehigh, No. 4 Steve Bosak of Cornell, and No. 7 Jimmy Sheptock of Maryland. In Ruth's most recent outing he earned a technical fall, 18-3, over Nebraska's Josh Ihnen, a returning All-American. Lofthouse, an All-American last season at 174 pounds, started this season 11-1, but has gone through a tough stretch, losing three of his last four matches.
Bottom Line: These two have a history that goes back to their prep days. (Ruth defeated Lofthouse in the 2008 Walsh Ironman finals.) They met last season, with Ruth picking up a 10-1 major decision in the dual meet, and twice two seasons ago. It's hard to envision Ruth not getting bonus points based on how the two are wrestling at this point in the season.
Prediction: Ruth by major decision (Penn State +4)
197: No. 3 Quentin Wright (Penn State) vs. No. 19 Nathan Burak (Iowa)
Wright, a two-time NCAA finalist and 2011 NCAA champion, is officially 18-0, but was pinned by Pitt's Matt Wilps at the NWCA All-Star Classic. His biggest challenge during the regular season has come from redshirt teammate Morgan McIntosh. Wright pinned No. 7 Jake Meredith of Arizona State to win the Southern Scuffle title. Burak, who spent last year at the Olympic Training Center in Colorado Springs, has been up and down this season, but has been wrestling well of late. He has recent wins over NCAA qualifiers Andrew Campolattano of Ohio State and Max Huntley Michigan, and is coming off a sudden victory loss to No. 12 Scott Schiller of Minnesota.
Bottom Line: This is a matchup pitting one of the nation's best against a young, promising wrestler who is still trying to find his way at the Division I level.
Prediction: Wright by decision (Penn State +3)
No. 17 Jon Gingrich (Penn State) vs. No. 6 Bobby Telford (Iowa)
The returning All-American Telford comes in with a record of 11-3, but has dropped three of his last four matches. Telford's last loss came to NCAA champion Tony Nelson, 2-1, on Saturday. His two other losses have come to No. 3 Alan Gelogaev of Oklahoma State and No. 12 Peter Capone of Ohio State. His best win this season has come against NCAA qualifier Matt Gibson of Iowa State. Gingrich split time with Jimmy Lawson during the first half of the season, but took control of the starting spot in mid-January. He is one of only two wrestlers to defeat Michigan State's Michael McClure this season. Gingrich also has wins over ranked wrestlers Adam Chalfant of Indiana and Odie Delaney of The Citadel.
Bottom Line: Expect a tight, competitive match between these two. Telford is the favorite, but Gingrich is capable of pulling the upset.
Prediction: Telford by decision (Iowa +3)
Dual Meet Predicted Score: Penn State 21, Iowa 16
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